Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips for Goulburn
Best Bet: ONE AYE (Race 5)
Value Bet: ZARDORO (Race 6)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7).
This looks to be a tricky contest and some caution is suggested. CARLISLE BAY looked a winner before being collared in the shadow of the post when a short-head behind the victor last time out over five furlongs. He was returning from a 15-week rest that day and from a handy draw two, he could be the one that they all have to beat.
Two 3yr old fillies could chase him home, with the slight preference going to FLYING GRACE who has finished second in her last two runs, the latest over 1100M, where she was 2.3L back from the winner. She made good late progress that day, and from a wide gate ten, she is likely to be dropped out of it early and then start picking off the frontrunners over the closing stages.
CLASSY GAL has only had the two runs to date, finishing third on debut over five furlongs and then sixth in her latest outing over 1010M, just over four and a half lengths adrift of the victor when returning from a 19-week break. She gets a kinder draw six and should be right up there when they hit the line.
Today’s best bet, ONE AYE, although recorded as finishing eighth last time out over seven furlongs, was only 2.4L behind the winner. That was in a Class 3 Handicap at a stronger centre and he did come four wide into the home straight. He nevertheless stayed on well and despite having to negotiate draw eight, he could prove difficult to topple here.
MACCOMO has consistent form lines to his credit and battled all the way down to the wire when finishing fourth in his latest outing over 1250M, just over a length and a half back from the winner. He jumps from gate five and should turn in another honest effort today.
RECONDITE is drawn one outside the latter and was struck by another jockey’s crop when finishing fifth last time out over seven furlongs, 4.8L adrift of the winner. He was returning from a lengthy 45-week absence that day and should be involved in the finish of this contest.
ZARDORO turned second-last into the home straight before finishing strongly from the 200M pole to end up in second place last time out over six furlongs, two and a half lengths behind the winner. He has gate ten and given his style of running, he is likely to be eased out of the race in the early part and then should be doing his best work late. As such, he is taken to be the value bet on the day’s program.
SHADOW CHASER won over this distance three runs back and has finished third in his next two starts, the latest over six furlongs, 3.7L back from the winner. He is drawn one outside the top choice and should also be running on over the latter stages.
VIBRANT KNIGHT returns from a 27-week absence and has not had the benefit of a barrier trial, so his fitness will have to be taken on trust. He did come four wide into the home stretch before finishing fourth in his last outing over six furlongs, just over a length and a half behind the victor and the form of that race has stood up well with five runners out of that contest subsequently winning. He should be included in all bets.
PRUSCINO has only had the two runs so far, finishing second on debut over five furlongs and then following that up with a victory last time out over 900M, putting nearly four lengths between herself and the opposition. She is a speedy sort who kicked clear of the field as they entered the home straight. She has a wideish gate seven, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
ROSA MOYESSI is seldom far off the action and although recorded as finishing seventh in her last start over six furlongs, she was just 2.3L behind the winner. She came four wides into the straight that day but finished off her race well. From a cosy draw four, she should keep the top pick honest.
KIMBERLEY RAIN did not get the clearest passage in the home straight and only saw daylight at the 200M pole before ending up in third spot last time out over six furlongs, 2.2L adrift of the winner. She was also hanging in from the 150M mark and her jockey put up 0.5kgs overweight, so she should have finished closer to the winner than she officially did. She jumps from gate six and should be right up there in the mix.