Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips from Thursday’s racing taking place at Gulfstream Park, including video analysis.
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Neil Morrice tips
Gulfstream Park Best Bets Thursday
Best Bet: MORETTI (Race 9)
Value Bet: Preacher Marsee (Race 8)
The best bet on the card is MORETTI in Race 9. The blue-blooded colt represents champion trainer Todd Pletcher, and those that burned their fingers on him when he gave best after a speed duel last time can find the cash was merely lent, with confidence boosted with pilot Luis Saez just ten short of his century and hungry to grab that accolade as soon as possible. Saez is also aboard the value bet PREACHER MAREE in Race 8. This lightly-raced individual should be suited by the way the race develops and can swoop to conquer.
Race 1 (Maiden Claiming): No1 – MAGICAL MIKE
Trainer: Saffie Joseph – Jockey: Victor Lebron
Breaking from the rail in this mile gives MAGICAL MIKE the edge he needs to serve it up to them on the tight turf track. He’s dropping to the $12,500 level on this surface, while he’s lost the blinkers that didn’t appear to assist in special weight on the main track last time. JACK BEANSTALK has posted a second and two thirds from just four starts in 2020 with a good run off a break that should have made him fitter. NOBLE NEBRAKAN hasn’t shown much this year but can get into it if turning the form clock back. TRAFFIC TROUBLE lived up to his name when suffering early scrimmaging and a line is happily drawn through his last run.
Prediction: 1-3-12-4
Race 2 (Claiming): No7 – DIZZY SIGHT
Trainer: George Arnold II – Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Tyler Gaffalione has been hot property at this meet and his presence adds lustre to the claims of huge class dropper DIZZY SIGHT. It’s a big drop too, as the main pick was last seen racing on both surfaces at allowance level, and returns from a lay off. The presence of bug boy Gadiel Martinez assists the cause of STEADILY who is also down a rung on the class ladder. RED FOG knows how to win and could get involved if recapturing his best of last year. SHE LOVE ME troubled the judge on latest start in February and can figure, granted refreshment from the break.
Prediction: 7-5-1-2
Race 3 (Maiden Claiming): No4 – MAYITO
Trainer: Saffie Joseph – Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
MAYITO is in the same ballpark as when finishing third at the same level and distance on his first start after shipping from Tampa. The son of Declaration of War has never been out of the money in four and gets the nod over CLIFTON PARK, who encountered traffic leaving the gate when favourite in a maiden last time, and represents top connections. Class dropper DECLARE UNION could get a cheque but his recent flops from similar outside posts proffer caution. HELL BENT needs to step up a gear but that isn’t impossible granted the trainer behind him.
Prediction: 4-8-11-10
Race 4 (Claiming): No7 – REITERATE
Trainer: Mark Casse – Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Another good opportunity for Gaffalione to demonstrate his prowess as he teams up with the outside drawn REITERATE, but in the smallest field on the card. Cutting back a furlong on the sprint spectrum shouldn’t hamper the selection, who did nothing wrong when second over six and a half furlongs last time. She faces strong competition from DANCING DESTROYER whose task in a five furlongs claimer on turf was heavily compromised by her having to make a six-wide move. There was no disgrace in that sixth placing in a state-bred optional claimer and interestingly her barn cuts a 25% strike-rate with its grass-to-dirt movers. Furthermore, the filly gets Saez in the hot seat. Cutting back in distance can help RICHIES GREAT GIRL have a say, as she brings a ring of consistency to the table.
Prediction: 7-3-5-2
Race 5 (Maiden Claiming): No2 – SPIRITUAL KING
Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Jockey: Edgard Zayas
If SPIRITUAL KING plays out the part similar types from the barn of the champion trainer frequently do when making a class drop, he could prove a spoke in the wheel of likely market leader RATIFY. The latter showed the benefit of ease in grade when second in a maiden that produced a brace of next-time-out winners, and can go well for his new handler with Joel Rosario in the irons. However, Spiritual King will have needed his first outing in two months when fifth in a maiden special weight over a trip that proved a bridge too far. Everything is right for him today. At longer odds, DR DOYLE should not be underestimated, as he put in a solid earning run last time, while MORE THAN USUAL finished in the money last start, and needs respecting.
Prediction: 2-5-7-3
Race 6 (Maiden Claiming): No5 – W W CANDY
Trainer: Scott Becker – Jockey: Angel Rodriguez
Falling into maiden claiming from state-bred special weight gives W W CANDY a chance to raise his game for a trainer that does well with his class droppers. He’s going to provide value in a race where EMBRACE MY UNCLE and THREE DEEP will gobble up the bulk of the handle. Embrace My Uncle deserves a change of luck after consecutive near-misses, but while he should enjoy a return to six furlongs his outside post is a source of concern. Three Deep did everything right only to lose out in a photo in an identical race last time. A similar effort makes him hard to beat. The filly QUIET COMPANY knows how to earn, and if improving on her only 2020 start can have a say.
Prediction: 6-10-5-9
Race 7 (Starter Optional Claiming): No6 – KING OF RANCH
Trainer: Mike Maker – Jockey: Luis Saez
Saez is closing in on his seasonal century and has some peaches in his book. Hopefully, KING OF RANCH will prove one of them. His five-wide trip seriously compromised his chances when odds-on for a similar race last time, yet he kept on for minor pickings that can be improved upon with a deserved triumph over Dominate Themoment. FLASH PASS is a speedy individual who looks booked for the lead from the rail. He’s closely matched with both the selection (who was behind him last time) and DOMINATE THEMOMENT, but I fancy those placings can reshuffle with Saez favouring King Of Ranch. New York shipper MONEY RIDE is a potential fly in the ointment, as he will stretch out under Edgard Zayas, whose effectiveness on speed horses has become his hallmark.
Prediction: 6-4-1-2
Race 8 (Claiming): No7 – PREACHER MARSEE
Trainer: Herbert Miller – Jockey: Luis Saez
PREACHER MAREE has been steadily progressing, and under a stalking ride and strong handling from on top can swoop to conquer. With few miles on his clock, the son of Bernardini has room for progression that can enable him to outpoint VOLUBILE. The latter found every door close in front of him in the stretch in a slightly better race than scuppered his hopes and can leave that behind with Gaffalione doing the navigating. The Ken Ramsey-owned SPINNING KITTEN hasn’t looked as good as he was last year, but after three 2020 runs should now be iron fit. A 1 INITIATIVE has managed to find plenty of woodwork and is unlucky, but his turn will surely come.
Prediction: 7-5-4-6
Race 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming): No4 – MORETTI
Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Jockey: Luis Saez
MORETTI cost a king’s ransom as a yearling and the son of Medaglia d’Oro adds blinkers after losing out in an allowance race over this trip at Laurel. The $900,000 purchase did little wrong throughout that speed duel and with Saez in the irons rates the one to beat. YOUNGEST OF FIVE is up in class after landing the odds in a special weight here over a mile. With Rosario aboard, he has to be taken seriously. At longer odds, STONE HANDS should set them a target as to when fading into fourth on his last start and could be worth inclusion in all exotics. But ADMIRE chased home a decent foe in one of these last time, and should now be primed to menace.
Prediction: 4-2-5-6
Race 10 (Fillies’ Maiden): No5 – MIGHTY ROAD
Trainer: Chad Brown – Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
The talking horse is $1 million debutant MIGHTY ROAD and her name has been barked all over the track. The daughter of Quality Road and Accelerator mare Paris Rose represents emergent Saudi owners, and after breezing beautifully over the half-mile at Payson Park on Saturday will attract a good slice of the nightcap handle. In what looks a quality field, second-time starter PASSION FACTOR can play an experience card of sorts after troubling the judge in a maiden special weight last month. She cost $235,000 at Saratoga and her dam was unbeaten in three starts on turf. ACT LIKE ARTIE represents the Maker/Rosario combo, and while failing to menace in two maiden special weights on this course is open to progression. In the famous Juddmonte colours, VALLETTA must be taken seriously after catching both the eye and a minor cheque last time.
Prediction: 5-3-11-8
