Eight races on the Valley Turf course awaits punters this Wednesday 4th March 2020 and it’s a good mix of speed and middle distance that should present some quality racing for punters to get involved in.
Best Bet: MEHBOOB (Race 5)
Value Bet: SURREALISM (Race 6)
|
Race
|
Time
|
Conditions
|
1st
|
2nd
|
3rd
|
4th
|
5th
|
|
1
|
13:15
|
1000m – Class 5
|
4
|
12
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
2
|
13:45
|
1800m – Class 4
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
10
|
|
3
|
14:15
|
1200m – Class 4
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
7
|
1
|
|
4
|
14:45
|
1650m – Class 4
|
9
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
3
|
|
5
|
15:15
|
1200m – Class 4
|
2
|
1
|
6
|
5
|
8
|
|
6
|
15:45
|
1650m – Class 3
|
5
|
1
|
7
|
6
|
3
|
|
7
|
16:15
|
1650m – Class 3
|
4
|
1
|
6
|
10
|
7
|
|
8
|
16:50
|
1200m – Class 3
|
2
|
9
|
3
|
10
|
6
|
The best bet on the card comes in the 5th Race, where the O’Sullivan trained MEHBOOB will be looking to capitalize off a plum draw. Zac Purton should give his followers some added confidence and he looks tough to oppose. The value bet comes in the 6th race, where SURREALISM has the form to win but must negate a tricky barrier to have any sort of chance. If finding a split, he should have a reasonable chance of winning, but it is going to require some luck in running. More below.
DEMONS ROCK looks a major contender in the opener on the program, with an improved draw on his side and Zac Purton retaining the mount. He is still a maiden in Hong Kong after 23 outings, but off his current mark of 36 he finds conditions to suit. SHOW MISSION finished right behind him last time out and with his course and distance record in mind, he looks a reasonable threat to the top selection.
DIONYSUS COLLIN should be the right one to follow in the 2nd event on the card. He is still a maiden after 18 outings, but he is clearly at his best over this course and distance and with Moreira taking the mount from a plum draw, he is hard to oppose. PLAY WISE is his biggest threat, being a class dropper, but he has a tough draw to overcome and will need a bit of luck on his side.
A Class 4 sprint greets punters in the third race and MASTER ALBERT is a tentative pick for first in a tough race. He won his last start but picked up a 6-point penalty for that effort and that will make things quite a bit tougher for the son of Magic Albert. Karis Teetan has stuck with him once again and he could follow up if things go to plan. SHANGHAI MASTER and FIRE BALL appear to be the best of the rest and deserve some respect.
METHANE enjoyed the return to the Valley course last time out and he duly delivered for his connections. He still has plenty of scope for more improvement and seems to prefer the extra ground. Back over the same course and distance as that latest effort, he should be a big runner and must be included in the 4th race. CASA DE FORCA is slipping in the ratings and he gets the blinkers fitted here. With Moreira retaining the ride after that solid last run, he deserves plenty of respect and cannot be discounted.
As mentioned above, the best bet arrives in the 5th race, in the form of MEHBOOB. He likes this course and distance and from a much better draw this time, should be tough to oppose with Purton up. It’s hard to see anything getting past him at the business end and with that in mind, he can be followed with a fair amount of confidence.
The value bet comes in the very next event and it’s the Ferraris trained SURREALISM who gets the nod. He has the form to win, but the wide draw will present a bit of a challenge for the son of Exceed and Excel and he could be relying on a bit of luck in running. The blinkers go on this time, which could indicate the intent to take him up handy and if he gets there with relative ease, he should be involved in the finish.
The penultimate race on the card looks relatively straight forward, with CHAMPION SUPREME being the obvious pick for first. He followed up that win in his penultimate start with a solid third last time out and he is going to relish the slight drop back in trip here. Callan retains the ride with a steady record of a win and a third on the son of Denman and despite not finding the winners enclosure in 6 outings at the Valley course, he deserves inclusion. STAR OF YUEN LONG could be the biggest threat to the top one and if finding a smoother passage this time, he should give a useful account of himself.
The final race is an interesting Class 3 sprint over 6-furlongs. THIS IS CLASS is a tentative pick for first prize, although he does bring some telling course and distance form into this race. He has clearly shown his worth in his last two starts since rising into this class and this outing will give his connections a reasonable idea as to how progressive he is. Zac Purton retains the ride on BEAUTY SPARK who has been knocking on the door for some time. He is due a win and should find a fair amount of support in the betting markets.
