Winning Form brings us all of their best bets and tips for Kensington, Australia on Wednesday, 20 October 2021.
Best Bet: THE DENZEL (Race 5)
Value Bet: LE VIZIR (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7).
DELEXO was bumped shortly after the start when missing out on his hat-trick, finishing second last time out over five furlongs, one and a half lengths behind the winner. His two previous victories had come over the same trip and from pole position, he looks to be the one that they all have to beat.
He renews his rivalry with OH PLEASE DIANNA who won her penultimate start over 1100M and then finished fifth in the race mentioned above, 3.3L back from the winner. She is a 5yr mare taking on the boys, but she did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight that day, only seeing daylight at the 300M mark. She does face the top choice on 1kg better terms today, but this may not be enough for that result to be reversed and she also faces a wideish drawn seven.
LENNON finished third last time out over 1300M, 1.2L back from the winner and returns from an 18 week break. He has not had a barrier trial so his fitness will have to be taken on trust, but he has a handy draw three and will have 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice to aid his cause.
The day’s best bet, THE DENZEL had his consistency rewarded with his maiden win last time out over a mile. He went from jump to wire that day before putting 5.8L between himself and the opposition, kicking clear of the field as he entered the home stretch. He has cracked pole position and whilst taking on stronger here, he is likely to adopt the same tactics today and could prove difficult to reel in over the closing stages of the contest.
GREEN FLASH on the other hand will have to overcome a wideish gate nine, but he stayed on well when finishing fourth in his latest outing over seven furlongs, 2.7L adrift of the victor. He was returning from an 18 week rest that day and the form of that race has been franked.
ABOVE AND BEYOND was bumped shortly after the start and found himself at the back of the field, but he made good late progress to end up in fourth spot last time out over seven furlongs, two lengths behind the winner. He jumps from draw six and will have 2kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice.
ELUSIVE JEWEL is seldom far off the action and was slow away before having to be held up at the entrance to the home straight and then only obtaining a clear run at the 250M pole. She then finished off her race powerfully. From her draw six and with the cheek pieces fitted for the first time, she should be right up there when they hit the line.
The 4yr old filly renews her rivalry with VITTORIOSA who won her penultimate outing over 1500M and then tried to go from gun to tape before finishing fifth next time out in the race mentioned above, just over four and a half lengths off the winner. She did become unbalanced at the 150M that day, so should have finished closer to the winner than she eventually did, but as she only meets the top pick on 1kg better terms today, she may have to settle for the same result, even though she has a slightly better draw four.
SEDUCTION QUEEN has finished closer to the winner in each of her last three runs, the latest when third over 1500M, just a length adrift of the winner. She faces the widest draw of them all in gate eleven, but she should be doing her best work late and should be included in all bets.
LE VIZIR showed good improvement to win his last start over six furlongs by 3.8L when returning from a 19 week rest. He struck the front at the 250M mark and then held off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire. Jumping from draw six, he is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.
GRACE BAY is a 5yr old mare taking on males, but she won her last run over 1100M by 0.8L when returning from an even longer 23 week absence and the form of that race has been franked. She is sure to put her pole position to good use and give the boys a good run for their money.
BLESK was returning from a 20 week rest when showing solid improvement to end up in second place last time out over six furlongs, beaten in the shadow of the post by just a short-head. He will have to overcome a wide gate eleven, but is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the front runners in the latter stages of the contest.