Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Tamworth, Australia on Monday.
Best Bet: ELUSIVE BABBZ (Race 5)
Value Bet: KAUFUSI (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7)
CIAO BICKY is a 2yr old gelding taking on older horses and makes his debut here after having had three barrier trials, improving with each one and winning his latest. He hails from a stable who certainly knows how to get them ready to win first time out, so any betting support for him should be respected. He gets gate six and could to be a cut above this line-up.
Of the raced runners, LITTLE MISS DOTTY may prove to be the best. She is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she was slow away and then had to be checked shortly after the start before staying on well to end up in seventh place last time out of 1525M, 5.7L behind the winner. She faces a wide gate ten but does have her peak run after returning from a 22-week break. She will also get the blinkers back on which should help her keep her mind on the task at hand.
KANDANGA MISS is a 4yr old filly who moved up wide approaching the home turn before finishing fifth in her latest outing over 1280M, just over two and a half lengths behind the winner. She will have to overcome a wider gate fifteen, but on the plus side, she will have 2kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice and does have her peak run after returning from a shorter 16-week rest.
ELUSIVE BABBZ followed up his penultimate run victory over 900M with a third-place finish next time out over five furlongs, 1.2L back from the winner. He battled all the way down to the wire that day and despite facing a wideish gate eight, he is taken to be the best bet on the day’s program. A 2yr old and a 3yr old filly may chase him home, with the slight preference going to
AVALICIOUS who was friendless in the betting markets but still won by just over a length and a half when making her debut over six furlongs. She kicked clear of the opposition as the field entered the home straight and despite have a wide draw eleven out of twelve, she could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.
JESELLIX finished well when fourth last time out over 1300M, 3.2L adrift of the victor, but she has a handy draw four and will have 2kgs removed from her allocated weight courtesy of her claiming apprentice. She should be involved in the finish.
A 3yr old filly and a 5yr old mare could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta. ENDORPHINS attracted plenty of betting support last time out, but was bumped at the start and was then involved in a four-way dual down to the line, before being beaten by a bob of a head to finish fourth, just a short head behind the winner. She will have to negotiate draw ten, but she will be hoping to make amends today.
MISS TWENTY TWENTY goes for her hat-trick after wins over 1450M and the latest over a mile by a neck. She overraced in the early stages that day, but still managed to hold on well for the victory. From a slightly kinder draw seven, she should be right up there when they hit the line.
VANBARI stayed on nicely when ending up in second spot last time out over a mile, 2.8L off the winner. The gelding will have to overcome draw fourteen, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy and should be included in all bets.
KAUFUSI had solid form leading up to his penultimate run victory over five furlongs but was then disappointing last time out when stepping up to six furlongs, finishing just over ten lengths back from the winner and was immediately rested for eight weeks. He returns here after having won his only barrier trial and from his cozy draw four, he is made the value bet on the day’s card.
Two 3yr old fillies could keep the top pick honest, with the preference going to CIAO UNO who although recorded as finishing ninth last time out over six furlongs, was just under four lengths behind the winner and the form of that race has stood up well with no less than six runners out of that contest subsequently winning. She returns from a 24-week break but has had the benefit of two barrier trials, finishing fourth in the latest. She will have to contend with a wide gate twelve, but she should be doing her best work late.
ASHRA JAHRE has her first run since a shorter 20-week rest and has her first run for her new trainer, but has had the one barrier trial. She won her penultimate outing over six furlongs and was then bitterly disappointing in her next effort, finishing eighth over seven furlongs, 19.6L adrift of the victor. She faces draw ten but gets 3kgs taken off her back for the services of her claiming apprentice. If fully settled into her new surroundings, she could make her presence felt in this field.