Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Wellington, Australia on Monday 19 July 2021.
Best Bet: SILVERDEEL (Race 5)
Value Bet: GIRLS KICK ON (Race 6)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7).
MAD AS ZARIZ has won two of his last three runs, the latest a victory over 1300M by two lengths. He has a handy draw five and should put in another honest performance here. WILD ROCKET is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has finished closer to the winner in each of her last three outings, the latest when fourth over a mile, just over a length behind the winner. She is drawn one outside the top choice and the form of that last contest has stood up well with 2 runner subsequently winning. REDEMPTION ROAD has cracked pole position and made good late progress despite being bumped at the 200M mark to end up in third place last time out over a mile, 1.2L back from the winner and the form of that race has been franked. The gelding will have 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice and should be included in all bets.
Three 3yr old fillies could fight out the finish to this race and complete the trifecta, but the firm top pick is today’s best bet, SILVERDEEL who has pulled pole position and followed up her penultimate run victory over 1300M with a fifth place finish next time out, but just 0.6L behind the winner. She finished well that day suggesting that the extra ground on offer today will be to her liking. NEWFANGLED JILL also won her penultimate start, but in her case over 1500M and then ended up in fifth place next time out when stepping up to ten furlongs. She has a cozy draw three and should enjoy reverting to the shorter journey of today’s race. BUCKIN’ LUCKY disappointed last time out when finishing tenth over a mile, 7.7L back from the winner, but she came very wide into the home straight that day and should have finished closer to the winner as a result. It should also be noted that the form of that race has proved to be strong as two runners out of that contest have subsequently come out and won.
Two 3yr old fillies could battle out the finish to this race and secure the exacta, but the day’s value bet, GIRLS KICK ON gets the nod for top spot. She is seldom too far off the action and finished fifth last time out over 1100M, just under two and a half lengths adrift of the victor. From her draw two, she should be right up there when they hit the line. BAIYKA attracted plenty of betting support when finishing third in her latest outing over 900M, 1.7L behind the winner. She hung in all the way down the straight that day, so that effort was encouraging. As a result, she gets a set of blinkers fitted for the first time and if these have the desired effect, she should give a good account of herself here, jumping from gate five. EXPECT A HERO won his penultimate start over 900M and then went on to finish second next time out over 950M, 1.8L back from the winner. The gelding has a wide draw thirteen out of eighteen, but should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
NICCOLON returns from a 16 week rest and has not had a barrier trial, so his fitness will have to be taken on trust, but he had consistent formlines to his name before the break, finishing third in the latest 2.2L off the winner. He is sure to put his pole position to good use. FOX ON THE ROCKS is a 3yr old filly taking on males and has her first run after a longer 24 week absence. She on the other hand has had the one barrier trial, where she finished third to prove her fitness. She is a speedy sort who finished fifth last time out over five furlongs, just under four lengths adrift of the victor. She will have to negotiate draw ten, but gets blinkers fitted for the first time and if these help her keep her mind on the task at hand, she should keep the top selection honest. SNIPER EXCELS is a 4yr old filly who has finished second in her last two starts since returning from a 17 week absence, the latest over five furlongs, just over a half length behind the winner. She has draw seven and should not be overlooked in this line-up.