Winning Form brings us all of his best bets and tips from Rosehill.
Best Bet: LOST AND RUNNING (Race 6)
Value Bet: DE GRAWIN (Race 8)
Jackpot (race 6 – 9)
Today’s best bet, LOST AND RUNNING has had just the six runs to date, but has chalked up five wins and a second-place finish so far. He went from jump to wire to win last time out over six furlongs, putting four lengths between himself and the opposition. He kicked clear at the 350M mark that day and was geared down approaching the wire. He will have to negotiate draw ten out of eleven, but nevertheless looks hard to topple here.
Although ELEVEN ELEVEN is recorded as finishing seventh in his latest outing over six furlongs, he was just 2.2L behind the winner and it should be noted that he was hampered at the jump that day, so should have finished closer to the victor as a result. He has a kinder draw four and has his peak outing after returning from a 12-week rest. He could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.
ORDER AGAIN returns from a 14-week rest, but has had the two barrier trials, finishing fourth in both of them. He did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight before ending up in sixth place last time out over a mile, just over four and a half lengths back from the winner. He jumps from a wideish gate nine but should be involved in the finish.
EMBRACER jumped awkwardly but recovered well to win his last start over this trip by some 1.8L when returning from a lengthy 42-week absence. He raced clear of the field at the 200M pole that day and from his draw seven, he should be right up there when they hit the line.
A 4yr old and filly and a 5yr old mare could chase him home, with the slight preference going to FITUESE who has her first run since a 28-week break, but has had the benefit of a barrier trial where she finished second. She was making good late progress when finishing ninth last time out over 1100M, 4.2L adrift of the winner, but the form of that race has stood up well with three runners out of that contest subsequently winning. She faces a wide draw thirteen, but on that last effort, she should be doing her best work late.
ADELONG finished third in her last outing over 1100M, two lengths off the winner, but her jockey put up 1kg overweight that day, so should have finished closer to the victor as a result.
Two 4yr old fillies could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta, but the day’s value bet, DE GRAWIN is taken to lead the pack home. She has won four races on the bounce, the latest over five furlongs by 1.8L and the form of that race has been franked. She returns from a 19-week absence but has had the two barrier trials, winning the first and finishing second in the latest. From her handy draw two, she should turn in another honest performance.
BELLUCI BABE showed solid improvement to win her last start over 1100M by almost half a length and has subsequently won a barrier trial. She will have to overcome a wide draw thirteen, but she is likely to be dropped out of the race at the jump and then start picking off the frontrunners over the latter stages of the contest.
MR MOSAIC followed up his penultimate run victory over 1100M with a third spot finish next time out over 1100M, just over two lengths back from the winner. He was bumped shortly after the start that day which would not have helped his chances, but from draw five and having 3kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice, he should keep the top two picks honest.
COUNT DE RUPEE won his penultimate run over six furlongs and then finished strongly to end up in second place in his next run over 1300M, suggesting that the extra ground on offer here will be to his liking. He has a cozy draw four and could be the one that they all have to beat.
VITESSE is a 5yr old mare taking on the boys, but she is seldom far off the action and finished second in her last start over 1300M, just a length off the winner. She had to weave her way through traffic that day, only seeing daylight at the 320M mark, but then finished off her race well. She will have to contend with gate ten, but she should be doing her best work late.
ARCHANNA is a 4yr old filly who finished third last time out over 1500M, just under a length and a half back from the victor. She had nothing go her way that day, jumping awkwardly and then having to be switched around runners at the 300M pole. She has pulled draw nineteen but gets the services of ex-SA jockey Keagan Latham, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.