Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Monday’s racing coming your way from Goulburn on 8 August.
Best Bet: DOUGHBOY HOLLOW (Race 5)
Value Bet: OUTAHAND (Race 6)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7).
DUBAI CENTRE goes for his hat-trick after victories over 1300M and the latest over 1500M, albeit by just a short-head. He overraced in the early stages and had to be eased off the heels of other runners turning into the home straight, but hit the front on straightening and then held off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire. The form of that race has stood up well with three runners out of that contest subsequently winning.
DEEL WITH ME had solid form before being a tad disappointing last time out when finishing nineth over a mile, seven lengths behind the winner and was immediately rested for 20 weeks. He returns here after putting in two encouraging barrier trials and whilst draw wideish in gate eight, on the plus side he will get 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice.
REOFFENDER jumped awkwardly and had to be steadied off the heels of other runners shortly after the start and again at the 300M mark, so should have finished closer to the winner that he officially did. He gets draw six and will have his peak run after returning from a 40 week absence and should be included in all bets.
The day’s best bet, DOUGHBOY HOLLOW tried to go from jump to wire when ending up in fourth place on debut over seven furlongs, just a half length behind the winner, but he was bumped at the 50M mark. The form of that race has been franked and he would have learnt from that experience. The gelding is drawn the widest of them all in gate ten, but with the further natural improvement that can be expected, he could be the one that they all have to beat.
HOTSTEP on the other hand has cracked pole position and has finished second in both of his starts to date, the first over six furlongs and the latest over seven furlongs, 4.3L off the winner. He was however slow away that day and found himself at the back of the field, but then delivered a powerful finish over the closing stages of the contest. He will have ex-SA jockey Keagan Latham in the irons, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.
REGINALD was trapped wide throughout and checked at the 1200M pole when never really getting into the race last time out over a mile, ending up in thirteenth place eighteen and a half lengths adrift of the victor. He returns from a 31 week break, but has had three barrier trials to prove his fitness. From draw six, he should be involved in the finish.
Although OUTAHAND is recorded as finishing fifth last time out over 1300M, he was just under a length and a half behind the winner. He raced up with the leaders in that contest and looked a winner at the 200M mark, before being run out of it late. He jumps from gate five and will be having his peak run after returning from a 15 week rest. As such, he is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.
SMELISHA is a 5yr old mare taking on the boys, but she has her hat-trick run after two wins over seven furlongs, the latest by just over a length and a half, this despite being slow away. She will have to negotiate draw eleven, but she should be doing her best work late.
THE PRES has consistent formlines to his name, with his last four outings yielding two seconds and two third place finishes. He raced wide without cover last time out when finishing second over 1500M, 2.3L behind the winner and although drawn wideish in gate eight, he will be hoping to go one better today.
There are three unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether any of the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners FIRST GRANGE may prove to be the best. He finished third fist time out over 1100M and then second in his next outing when dropping down to five furlongs, just under a length behind the winner. He was returning from a 12 week rest that day and showed plenty of toe, so his draw seven should not be too much of an issue.
SURREAL LILY is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she showed marked improvement to finish fifth second time out over five furlongs, 2.2L back from the victor, notwithstanding racing green and hanging out badly in the home straight. She has also won a subsequent barrier trial and from her useful gate three, she should give the boys a good run for their money.
LOCKUP THE KITTENS finished third on debut over five furlongs and then followed that up with a second place finish last time out over the same sprint trip, 1.3L behind the winner, but he did race awkwardly on the home turn that day. He returns from a 29 week break, but finished second in his only barrier trial and although facing a wide gate fourteen, he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.