Winning Form share all of their best bets and tips for Monday’s racing coming your way from Grafton on 15 August 2022.
Best Bet: MY WATER LILLY (Race 7)
Value Bet: ASHERLA (Race 8)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8).
Although PAKETTA is recorded as finishing fifth last time out over 800M, she was just 1.8L behind the winner when returning from a 30 week break. She raced up with the leaders that day and was only run out of it late. From her handy draw two, she is likely to adopt similar tactics today and could prove hard to reel in.
KIANI was bumped at the start when finishing second in her latest outing over 950M, just under two lengths back from the winner and the form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning. She returns from a 20 week break and has not had the benefit of a barrier trial, so her fitness will have to be taken on trust, but she has cracked pole position and should make her presence felt in this line-up.
MISS MATADOR has finished closer to the winner in each of her last three runs, the latest when sixth over six furlongs, 4.3L adrift of the victor, despite coming four wide into the home straight and hanging out over the latter stages. She will have to deal with a wide gate nine and has her first run after a shorter 16 week rest with no barrier trial. She will also be having her first outing for her new trainer and if fully settled into her new surroundings, she should give a good account of herself here.
PUERTO RICO showed marked improvement when finishing third last time out over 1100M, 0.8L behind the winner and the form of that race has been franked. He was bumped at the start and came five wide approaching the home turn that day, so that effort was encouraging. If he is able to confirm that last run, he looks to be the one to side with here, notwithstanding facing a wide gate eleven.
KOONDEEMAN was bumped at the start, but chased up to the leaders and not unsurprisingly had little to offer over the closing stages, ending up in fifth place last time out over six furlongs, 5.7L back from the winner. The drop in trip will be to his liking and the gelding is sure to put his pole position to good use.
QUATUM overraced in the early and middle stages and had to be held up approaching the home turn before finishing eighth last time out over 1110M, 4.8L adrift of the winner. He is drawn one outside the latter and should be included in all bets.
MY WATER LILLY is a 5yr old mare taking on the boys and had solid form prior to disappointing last time out when finishing sixth over 1512M, 9.7L behind the winner, but she had nothing go her way that day. She had to be held up between the 300M and 200M marks and then hampered again at the 100M pole. She gets a useful draw two and with better luck in running, she could prove hard to topple and as such, she is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
LAMPKIN LANE raced wide without cover and was then forced out even wider on the home turn when finishing fourth in his latest outing over 1526M, 3.3L behind the winner. He stayed on well that day and from draw seven, he could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.
MERVEN was friendless in the betting markets when finishing second last time out over 1512M, 8.3L back from the victor. The gelding raced up with the leaders that day and does face a wide gate thirteen out of fourteen today, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
The day’s value bet, ASHERLA is a 4yr old filly taking on males. She reared at the start when finishing fourth last time out over five furlongs, just under three lengths behind the winner, but she did battle all the way down to the wire that day and on that performance, she is likely to relish the extra ground on offer here. She gets a cozy draw four and should give the males a good run for their money.
TIDAL RUSH hit the front on entering the home stretch and was only run out of it late, ending up in second spot last time out over 1450M, just over a half length behind the winner. From pole position, he is likely to try the same tactics today.
WONDERWHEN on the other hand will have to deal with a wide draw twelve and is another 4yr old filly in the race. She had her consistency rewarded with a three and a half length victory last time out over six furlongs when returning from a 14 week rest. She went from gun to tape that day and the form of that race has been franked, so she should not be lightly dismissed.