Australian racing tips – Thursday 4 January 2024 – Muswellbrook

Best Bet: TAPA KICK (Race 5)
Value Bet: EDGE OF MIDNIGHT (Race 6)

Jackpot (race 4 – 7)

Cost: R90.00

Race 4

There are five unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether any of the connections believe that they can win first-time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners, SUPER STORY may well prove to be the best. He raced just behind the leaders and stayed on well when showing solid improvement to finish second last time out over 1100M, just 0.8L behind the winner. He gets draw five and will have 3kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice.

A 4-year-old and a 3-year-old filly could chase him home, with the slight preference going to QUEEN MAXIMA who, although recorded as finishing fifth in her latest outing over five furlongs, was just 1.7L back from the winner. She was returning from a 26-week break that day and raced wide throughout which would not have helped her cause. The filly will have to negotiate a wide draw fifteen, but she should be right up there when they hit the line.

JOISELLE makes her debut after winning her only barrier trial comfortably. She faces an even wider gate sixteen, but she won’t have to be a superstar to win this event.

Race 5

TAPA KICK had his consistency rewarded with his maiden victory last time out over six furlongs, albeit by just a half-length. He jumped awkwardly and was returning from a 21-week break that day, but the form of that race has been franked. He takes on stronger, but from draw five, he may well be up to the task at hand and is made the best bet on the day’s card.

USICAL AFFAIR is a 4-year-old filly taking on the boys, but she is seldom far off the action, finishing fourth last time out over six furlongs, just under two lengths back from the winner. She hung in at the 800M mark in that event and then had to be eased over the latter stages, so that effort was encouraging. She has a useful draw three and will be having her peak run after returning from a 17-week rest and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top pick.

AESTHETE missed out on his hat-trick after two victories over a mile, finishing ninth last time out when dropping down to six furlongs, just under six lengths adrift of the victor. The gelding jumps from gate six and should do better over what appears to be a more suitable trip at this stage of his career.

Race 6

The day’s value bet, EDGE OF MIDNIGHT has consistent formlines to his name and raced wide without cover and hung out on the home turn, but still managed to stay on well to finish second last time out over six furlongs, just a head off the winner. The colt had pulled a useful gate six and looks to be the one to side with here.

FERRO VERO followed up his penultimate run victory over five furlongs with a ninth place finish next time out over seven furlongs, 3.3L lengths back from the winner, but that was at a stronger centre, and he raced three wide throughout. He will have to deal with a wide draw ten, but he does have his peak run after returning from a 23-week spell.

HOT BANDIT also won his penultimate start, but in his case, over 1100M and finished fifth next time out over the same c&d, five lengths adrift of the victor, when returning from a 17-week rest, but he overraced throughout that day and despite making good late progress from some way back, he left himself with too much work to do over the closing stages. The gelding has drawn gate five and will be hoping to bounce back to winning ways today.

Race 7

As with the opening leg of the day’s Jackpot, there are several unraced runners in this contest, so the same comment in respect of keeping an eye on the betting moves applies here as well. MEDINAH has posted two solid last runs for his new trainer and battled all the way down to the wire when finishing second in his latest outing over 1300M, one and a half lengths behind the winner. He will be having his peak run after returning from a 20-week break and whilst drawn wide in gate eleven, he should be doing his best work late.

SOVEREIGN DANE has only had the three runs to date and was returning from a 26-week absence when finishing fourth last time out over 1300M, just over five and a half lengths behind the winner, but he did come wide into the home stretch in that contest, before staying on well over the latter stages. The gelding has gate seven and will be looking to improve on that last effort.

IMAGE OF THE SUN is drawn one outside the latter and is a 3-year-old filly taking on males. She jumped awkwardly and came the widest of them all into the home straight when ending up in third spot first time out over 1300M, 2.3L behind the winner. She would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, she should be included in all bets.