The Challenge Cup is fast approaching its business end with two sets of round-robin fixtures remaining before we reach the quarter-finals stage.
Overall it’s not exactly ‘squeaky bum time’ yet, a number of teams do need to grab wins this weekend to stay in contention for a place in the next phase.
Darry Worthington runs the rule over all the Round 3 action below and gives his betting tips including his multiple selections for the weekend.
Friday
Friday sees just a solitary fixture but it’s a big one for English outfit Gloucester as they look to keep their play-off hopes alive by getting one over a Scarlets side who would be very handily placed to advance to the next phase should they cause an upset at the Kingsholm.
The hosts head into this one having lost one and won one in the opening two rounds starting their campaign off with a solid 15-10 win over Edinburgh before being hammered 43-19 by Top 14 strugglers Vannes. Their recent domestic form is decent enough, however, and they come into this one off a 36-20 home win over the Sale Sharks.
Europe has been slightly kinder to the Scarlets who sit third in Pool 3 having despite only winning one game a they have managed to pick up two bonus points claiming a losing bonus point from a narrow 17-16 defeat to Bayonne while garnering a try scoring bonus point in a 30-8 victory over Zebre.
Saturday sees a packed fixtures list with six games scheduled including eye-catching clashes between Montpellier and the Golden Lions as well as Connacht and Lyon.
We start things off, however, with less of a glamour tie between Top 14 strugglers Perpignan and URC outfit the Cardiff Blues. Cardiff are well positioned in Pool 1 currently sitting in third while Perpignan are in fourth and need a win here to stay in the hunt for play-offs qualification.
The visitors are yet to win a European game this term going down 18-31 to Connacht while drawing 20-20 with the Cheetahs in Round 1. Their domestic form is poor to boot with Perpignan losing two of their last three domestic fixtures with their most recent loss being last weekend’s 17-12 defeat to Lyon.
Cardiff have had a better time of it in Europe beating the Cheetahs 26-10 before giving Lyon a decent run but ultimately going down 37-26 away to the Top 14 outfit. Their URC form has been slightly better than that of their opponents Top 14 form as they beat the Dragons
Scarlets 22-24 and then drew 13-13 with the Ospreys.
We’ve got a double-header next up in the mid-evening slot with Top 14 cellar-dwellers Vannes taking on Edinburgh while Georgian side Black Lion take on a Bayonne side that have to win here to have any chance of advancing to the next round.
While Vannes are struggling in the Top 14, they are going alright in Europe bouncing back from a opening round shock defeat to Black Lion by recording a bonus point win of an admittedly understrength Gloucester side.
Edinburgh have also won one and lost one going down 15-10 to Gloucester before bouncing back to beat Bayonne 52-12. The URC has been on a two-week break so Edinburgh should be fresh for this one while Vannes have continued to find the going tough in the French top tier going down 19-20 at home to Clemront.
The next fixture could be a rather interesting one with Black Lion always a tough proposition to take on at the Mikheil Meskhi Stadium. The Georgian outfit have already claimed a surprise win at the venue this term turning over Vannes, and while they did lose their next fixture 36-18, they did give their opponents the Scarlets a decent run for it even if the scoreline suggested otherwise.
Bayonne have been flying high in the Top 14 but they’ve found the going a bit tougher in Europe going down 52-12 to Edinburgh in the Round 2 with the heavy defeat following a narrow 17-16 home win over the Scarlets. Looking at the two sides’ most recent results, Edinburgh beat Glasgow 10-7 a fortnight ago in the URC while Bayonne went down 42-10 to Montpellier this past weekend.
It’s over to Saturday’s next double-header which sees the Ospreys take on the Newcastle Falcons and Montpellier square off with the Golden Lions in the same time slot.
The Anglo-Welsh game is a battle between the cellar-dwellers in Pool 2 Newcastle rooted to the foot of the pool without a point while the Ospreys are a plade above but level on points with the fourth-placed Golden Lions and the third-placed Dragons.
Newcastle – who must win this one to give themselves a fighting chance of advancing to the next round – have struggled in the ‘comp so far going down 32-19 away to Pau in Round 1 and then 14-22 at home to the Dragons.
Their domestic form is also rather worrying as they have lost their last three domestic games by 24 points or more. The Ospreys have had a better time of it in the Challenge Cup beating the Golden Lions 30-14 before getting something of a wake up call from Montpellier who beat the Welsh side 59-15 in France.
Their domestic form is far superior to that of their opponents for Saturday with the URC side beating the Scarlets 32-22 and then drawing 13-13 with the Cardiff Blues in their last two domestic outings.
We close out Friday proceedings with the late kick-off, which will see Connacht and Lyon go head-to-head in Galway in a top of the Pool 1 clash. The Irish province currently sit one point ahead of their opponents courtesy of claiming two try-scoring bonus points from their two fixtures, while Lyon have just the one.
Connact’s two victories have come over weakish opposition with the Irish province beating Zebre 43-12 and Perpignan 18-31. They’ve been a decent earner for punters coming into their clash with Perpignan as slight underdogs and pocketing a decent straight win while they cleared the handicap against Zebre. They haven’t blown all too hot in the URC in recent weeks, however, losing 20-12 to Leinster and 7-17 to Ulster in their two festive derbies.
Lyon have also gone two from two in Europe which will be a massive relief for the Wolves who have struggled on the domestic front this term. The Top 14 side’s two Challenge Cup wins came against Zebre who they just scraped past 19-21 and Cardiff who they beat 37-26. They’ve been the draw specialist in the Top 14 over the last month drawing two of their three fixtures and while they won their most recent domestic outing against Perpignan 17-12.
Sunday
Our final two fixtures for the weekend will see the Cheetahs square off against Zebre in the Netherlands and the Dragons take on Pau in Wales.
The Cheetahs desperately need a win here to stay in contention for a play-off spot as they currently sit second to last in Pool 1 with their draw against Perpignan being the only game they have picked up points from. The Free Staters’ other fixture saw them go down 26-10 to the Cardiff Blues.
Zebre are enduring an even worse time of it and are all but out of the running for a play-offs berth having only garnered a losing bonus point from their opening two fixtures with their 19-21 defeat to Lyon in the previous round getting them that solitary point.
While they gave a decent account of themselves against the French outfit they certainly did not in their first European fixture where they went down 43-12 to URC rivals Connacht. They are currently on a four game losing streak which will be worrying for fans of the Italian outfit.
We move over to our final game now and this one will have a major impact on the make-up of Pool 2 with second placed Pau taking on the third-placed Newport-Gwent Dragons. Only a point separates the sides in the pool stakes and a win for either would put them in the driving seat for qualification to the knock-out phase.
The hosts have done well enough in the Challenge Cup recording a 32-19 win over the Newcastle Falcons before giving the Lions a real run in Joburg where they went down 43-35 to the South African outfit. The Dragons have also gone one from two with their win coming over Newcastle (22-11) while they lost 14-18 to Montpellier in an extremely tight fixture.
Both sides’ domestic form is rather poor with the hosts losing their last two games while Pau went down 24-19 to Catres this past weekend.
Friday Tip – Gloucester Win
Saturday Tips
Cardiff Win
Edinburgh Win
Black Lion Win
Ospreys minus
Montpellier minus
Connacht minus
Sunday Tips
Cheetahs – minus
Dragons Win
Weekend Double
Connacht Win + Ospreys Win
Weekend Treble
Connacht Win + Ospreys Win + Dragons Win
Weekend Quad
Connacht Win + Ospreys Win + Dragons Win + Cheetahs Win
Going for Broke
Connacht minus + Montpellier Minus + Cheetahs Minus + Gloucester Win + Ospreys Minus + Black Lion Win
*As is always the case with the Challenge Cup, it takes a while for bookies around the world to price up due to a number of variables. We could also see some dramatic price shifts as odds change after the books open up the markets.
