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French Top 14

PREVIEW: “Squeaky bum time” in penultimate round of Top 14 season

There are just two rounds left of the 2022/23 Top 14 regular season remaining and, to coin a Sir Alex Ferguson turn-of-phrase, it’s “squeaky bum time’ for a number of France’s top tier sides with play-off hopes set to be shattered and relegation nightmares realized over the coming fortnight.

Romain Lafabregue/Icon Sport

Round 25 serves up some absolute classics as well with Bayonne and Clermont going head-to-head in a clash that will likely decide if either team makes the play-off phase.

Two women looking excitedly at cellphone

Elsewhere, Stade and Lyon facing off in a game that will have a massive bearing on who has hosting rights for the first set of play-off fixtures. 

Saturday 13 May

Perpignan | Draw | Toulouse
Odds TBA*

‘David versus Goliath’ be thy game. Saturday’s opener sees log-leaders Toulouse travel to the stade Aime Giral to take on 13th-placed Perpignan. The hosts will be at risk of automatic relegation should they lose this one and Brive pick up a win. Toulouse, on the the hand, would further strengthen their grip on the top of the ladder with a bonus-point win here.

The tale of the tape does not make for good reading for Perpignan fans with their side only registering nine wins from 24 games while Toulouse have claimed 16 and a draw from their 24. The last head-to-head result between the sides isn’t pretty either with Toulouse winning 34-14 earlier this season.

In terms of last weekend’s results, the hosts head into this one off the back of a respectable 41-31 away defeat to Lyon while Toulouse beat Bordeaux 31-17.

I know Perpignan will be determined to cause a shock but I cannot see them doing that let alone keeping pace with this star-studded Toulouse side. Money on the hosts taking it by more than 18 points.

Toulouse on the minus.

Montpellier | Draw | La Rochelle
Odds TBA*

Montpellier will be looking to keep their exceedingly slim hopes of claiming a play-off berth alive when they take on a La Rochelle side who are looking to play the pressure on log-leaders Toulouse, who sit a point above them on the ladder.

The hosts are currently seven points adrift of the final play-off place and a loss here would effectively end their season with a round to spare. They had a tough old time of it in Round 24 as they went down 25-26 to strugglers Brive.

La Rochelle had a far better round as they managed an eye-catching 8-23 away win over Toulon. This was their sixth win across all competitions.

They’re in red-hot form while Montpellier are struggling. I can’t see anything but an away win here.

The visitors will take this.

Bordeaux 1/6 | Draw 28/1 | Pau 44/10

Handicap
Bordeaux (-13.5) 9/10 | Pau (+13.5) 9/10

Bordeaux will be looking to solidify their play-off hopes when they take on 12th-placed Pau, who look likely to avoid relegation.

Bordeaux have struggled for results of late losing three of their last four fixtures with their only win coming against Lyon (23-9) a fortnight ago. One of the aforementioned defeats came last weekend where they lost 31-17 to log-leaders Toulouse.

Pau have been in better form winning two of their last four games. One of these wins came last weekend, and it was an impressive one as they beat Castres 40-3.

The Begles know what’s on the line here and I fully expected them to deliver the goods.

Bordeaux to win here.

Brive 38/100 | Draw 22/1 | Castres 22/10

Handicap
Brive (-7.5) 9/10 | Castres (+7.5) 9/10

Next up we’ve got cellar-dwellers Brive taking on 11th placed Castres. The visitors are looking to avoid the relegation/promotion play-off while the hosts can only hope to get in that battle as they trail 13th-placed Perpignan by four points on the ladder.

The two sides experienced contrasting fortunes last weekend with Castres putting in a pitiful display away to Pau as they went down 40-3, while Brive managed a major upset as they beat Montpellier 26-27 at the GGL.

Castres were on a serious run of form before last weekend’s defeat in their previous four games which were against Montpellier, Lyon, Toulouse and Toulon. I reckon they will return to form this weekend.

Get on Castres here.

Bayonne 63/100 | Draw 22/1 | Clermont 27/20

Handicap
Bayonne (-3.5) 9/10 | Clermont (+3.5) 9/10

Bayonne and Clermont will be looking to keep their play-off hopes alive when they go head-to-head at the Par des Sports Jean Dauger. The hosts currently sit in eighth on the ladder and are three-points adrift of seventh-placed Toulon while Clermont are three points behind Bayonne.

The two sides experienced contrasting fortunes this past weekend with Bayonne suffering a 55-14 hammering in Paris from Racing 92, while Clermont registered a very impressive 32-16 home victory over third-placed Stade Francais.

I’m going for the hosts here. While their form has dropped off in recent weeks, they still have a very handy side who have done exceedingly well this term.

The hosts should take it.

Racing 92 | Draw | Toulon
Odds TBA*

The penultimate game of the weekend pits fourth-placed Racing Metro up against seventh-placed Toulon. The hosts will be looking to close the gap on second-placed Stade Francais who sit three points above them on the ladder, while Toloun will be looking to pull away from the battle for the final play-off berth,

Racing enjoyed a solid time of it in Round 11 as they racked up a mammoth 55-14 bonus point win over Bayonne, while Toloun suffered their second domestic defeat on the trot going down 8-23 at home to La Rochelle.

Racing have hit a solid patch of form just when they need to while Toulon are experiencing a dip. My money is on the hosts taking the honors here.

Racing will come out on top.

Sunday 14 May

Stade Francais 56/100 | Draw 22/1 | Lyon 15/10

Handicap
Stade (-3.5) 9/10 | Lyon (+3.5) 9/10

We bring things to a close at the Stade Jean-Bouin where third-placed Stade Francais square off against a Lyon outfit that could leapfrog them into third with a bonus point win here.

The hosts have been slightly hit and miss in recent weeks winning two and losing two of their last four fixtures with the most recent result being a 32-16 defeat to Clermont.

Lyon have a;salso struggled of late losing three of their last four games. Unlike Stade, they enjoyed a successful outing in Round 24 as they beat Perpignan 41-31.

I’m going for the home team here. I reckon this one will be a narrow run thing with the Parisians taking it by a very narrow margin.

Stade Francais at home.

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