World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for this weekend's Autumn Nations Series and Rugby Europe matches with the Springboks guaranteed to end the year as the number one team in the world.
Ireland cannot improve their rating with victory over Australia as a result of the 9.26 points difference between the sides before home weighting is factored in.
This means that South Africa is guaranteed to end the year as world number one.
Ireland will remain in second place if they beat Australia, but anything less will see them drop to third below New Zealand.
A loss by more than 15 points will also see Ireland slip another place to fourth with France the beneficiaries. Ireland have not been ranked as low as fourth since July 2022.
The Wallabies will climb at least one place if they avoid defeat in the final match of the Autumn Nations Series 2024, condemning England to a record-equalling low of eighth – a position they last occupied in February 2016.
Australia will jump two places to sixth with any margin of victory over Ireland, also climbing above Scotland.
This would be a significant improvement for Australia, who arrived in Europe ranked 10th after a disappointing Rugby Championship campaign.
Croatia are the next highest-ranked team in action this weekend and they can secure a four-place rise to 37th if they beat Luxembourg by more than 15 points in their Rugby Europe Men’s Trophy 2024-25 encounter.
Luxembourg would tumble out of the world’s top 60 in such a scenario, but by contrast can enter the top 50 nations for the first time if they are victorious.
Any form of defeat would see Croatia lose ground – by as many as seven places if the margin is more than 15 points.
There is also one match in the Rugby Europe Men’s Conference 2024/25, a win for Malta away to Andorra will not come with any rating gain due to the 13.98 points between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
The only positional gains that Malta can make this weekend will be as a result of Croatia losing, while defeat will see them drop at least five places to 49th.
Andorra, the lowest-ranked team in action this weekend in 88th, are guaranteed a new high if they upset Malta with a climb of between six and 10 places possible depending on the margin of victory.
The Springboks will end the year at the top of the World Rugby rankings after their 45-12 victory against Wales 🇿🇦🙌 pic.twitter.com/epyomx7F1s
— Sky Sports Rugby Union (@SkySportsRugby) November 23, 2024
