Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The Aussie and Kiwi sides return from the competition’s inopportune break, surely aiming to use this Saffa-free round to further stamp their dominance at the top of the table. The upset-laden round just before the three-week interval has left the table-topping Sharks as South Africa’s only remaining hope in the race for this season’s coveted Super Rugby title, while their fortuitous foreign foes plan on dividing up the remaining play-off seats over the next three weeks. Reigning champions the Chiefs suffered a crippling home defeat to the recently rejuvenated Waratahs in the last round, leaving the Aussie conference leaders perfectly poised to usurp pole-position from the Sharks. The New Zealand conference remains as hotly contested as ever, with all five sides still within reach of a Top Six finish.
Highlanders vs Chiefs | Friday 27 June | Forsyth Barr Stadium | 09:35
The Chiefs were thrown a rare lifeline in the last round when both the Highlanders and Hurricanes failed to pick up victories against weaker opposition, but with three gruelling Kiwi derbies standing between them and a spot in the knockout stages they’ll need to start making their own luck, starting with a win in Dunedin this Friday.
To Win (80mins)
Highlanders 21/20
Chiefs 17/20
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Highlanders (+1.5) 9/10
Chiefs (-1.5) 9/10
Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph has decided against resting his returning All Blacks this week, opting instead to name his strongest possible side for Friday’s pivotal home clash against the Chiefs. This means Aaron Smith, Malakai Fekitoa and Ben Smith have all been included in the run on side, as has speedster Patrick Osborne, who was called up for the All Blacks as injury cover during their three-Test series against England. TJ Ioane picked up an ankle injury during training this week, opening a spot for Lee Allen on the bench. The Chiefs have their fair share of All Black talent returning too, and with Aaron Cruden and Liam Messam having finally found some decent form last weekend, Dave Rennie will be happy to have them back in the fold.
VERDICT: Chiefs 17/20
This is looking like an almost impossible game to call. Both sides are looking to get back to winning ways after two consecutive defeats, and both are desperate for a win to keep their playoff aspirations alive. The only logical thing to do in these situations is back the home side, but we’ve learned logic counts for little in this competition. In that event, I’m going to back the Chiefs to sneak a win in Dunedin.
Rebels vs Reds | Friday 27 June | AAMI Park | 11:40
Not much to play for in Melbourne this week as these two underperforming sides fight over the undesirable spot at the bottom of the Aussie conference.
To Win (80mins)
Rebels 7/10
Reds 5/4
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Rebels (-2.5) 9/10
Reds (+2.5) 9/10
The Rebels have made three changes to the side that went down to the Brumbies in Canberra a few weeks back. Fullback Jack Debreczeni will make his first start for the club this Friday after spending two weeks on the bench, shifting Jason Woodward to the right wing. Wallaby U20 captain Sean McMahon returns from the Junior World Championship to start at blindside flank, while scrumhalf Luke Burgess has recovered from his knee injury in time to start ahead of Nic Stirzaker. The Reds clinched a hard-fought 38-31 victory over the Highlanders in their last outing, finally managing to end their losing streak after six consecutive losses. In celebration of this, coach Richard Graham has made only one change to the side that secured the win, with Nick Frisby coming in at scrumhalf for the injured Will Genia.
VERDICT: Reds 5/4
The Rebels pulled off a phenomenal victory last month against the Queenslanders at Suncorp Stadium, so I expect the Reds will be looking to even the score, and with their confidence boosted by their recent victory they could very well make it two wins in a row for the first time this season, a sad thought indeed.
Hurricanes vs Crusaders | Saturday 28 June | Westpac Stadium | 09:35
The Hurricanes may have claimed a rare victory in Christchurch back in the early stages of this year’s competition, but with the Crusaders proving more and more menacing each week, the ‘Canes are unlikely to find much solace in their home ground advantage.
To Win (80mins)
Hurricanes 11/10
Crusaders 15/20
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Hurricanes (+2.5) 8/10
Crusaders (-2.5) 1/1
With regular skipper Conrad Smith out with a broken thumb, Jeremy Thrush has been named to captain the home side this week. Tim Bateman will start in the midfield in Smith’s absence, while in the forwards Brad Shields takes over at flank from the injured Faifili. The Crusaders suffered a major blow with the loss of All Black skipper Richie McCaw for up to a month with a broken rib. Despite the loss of McCaw, coach Todd Blackadder has decided against rushing Kieran Read back into the run on side, opting to use the dynamic loose forward off the bench instead, where he joins sensational playmaker Dan Carter. Carter returns from his sabbatical for his first appearance this season, and will offer cover for starting flyhalf Colin Slade.
VERDICT: Crusaders (-2.5) 1/1
The Crusaders have won six of their last seven games, and five of those were by a margin of twenty points or more, making the 2.5 handicap laughable. Bet against them at your own peril.
Waratahs v Brumbies | Saturday 28 June | ANZ Stadium | 11:40
It is a rare occasion when an Australian derby promises to be the pinnacle of the weekend’s rugby action, so don’t miss out when these two go head-to-head for the conference lead in Sydney.
To Win (80mins)
Waratahs 3/10
Brumbies 27/20
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Waratahs (-8.5) 9/10
Brumbies (+8.5) 9/10
Prop Benn Robinson earns his 130th cap for New South Wales this week as his side aims to equal their personal record of five straight Super Rugby victories this Saturday. Coach Michael Cheika has made only one change to the side that took down the Chiefs, with Sekope Kepu replacing Paddy Ryan in the front row. The Brumbies have been hit with another injury blow, this time losing the services of playmaker Matt Toomua with a groin injury. Toomua joins an already lengthy injury list loaded with big names such as Sam Carter, David Pocock and Pat McCabe. Christian Lealiifano is expected to start at ten with Andrew Smith taking over from him in the midfield.
VERDICT: Waratahs (-8.5) 9/10
This in-form Waratahs outfit should clean up nicely at home against their injury-riddled visitors, and with their last four victories being by nine points or more there is no reason to think the 8.5 handicap will prove tricky at all.
Force vs Blues | Saturday 28 June | NIB Stadium | 13:45
The Blues head for the “Force Field” in search of their first away victory of the season, a daunting task when their opponents are chasing their maiden play-off berth.
To Win (80mins)
Force 8/10
Blues 11/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Force (-1.5) 9/10
Blues (+1.5) 9/10
The Western Force have had a dream season so far, but will need to bounce back from their defeat to the Crusaders in order to feature in the knockout stages. No final team announcements yet but I expect that Wallabies Nick Cummings and Ben McCalman will feature in the run on side. The Blues hold an extremely remote chance of reaching the playoffs despite currently occupying last spot in their conference, but resounding victories in all three of their remaining matches are non-negotiable. So it is no surprise to see that Sir John Kirwan has thrown all of his returning All Blacks into the front line this week, with Charlie Faumuina, currently fighting a stomach bug, the only concern ahead of Saturday’s clash.
VERDICT: Force (-1.5) 9/10
The Blues have been terrible on the road this season, and the Force are hardly going to let this chance of an extended season evade them after all the work they’ve put in to get as far as they have. Should be close, but the Force have already beaten the Bulls, Waratahs and Chiefs in Perth this season so I can’t see the beleaguered Blues being beyond their reach.
Think we’ve got it wrong? Well leave your comments below and tell us how you think this is going to play out.
