Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Rife with upsets, Round 6 put pay to the unbeaten records of both the Chiefs and the Sharks in this year’s competition, but had little effect on their commanding roles in their respective conferences. Apart from the reigning champions, the Kiwi sides are having an uncharacteristically calamitous campaign to date, with four of their five teams sitting in the bottom half of the standings. Round 7 brings with it a bit of relief for the frustrated punter, as we won’t have to deal with the logic-defying form of the Force and the Lions. We will, however, have to incorporate the upset-aiding abilities of Stuart Berry into our predictions, but to a lesser extent as he performs the less menacing duties of an assistant referee in the Bulls vs Chiefs game.
Crusaders vs Hurricanes | Friday 28 March | AMI Stadium | 08:35
The Crusaders return from a bye to take on the weakest of the Kiwi sides at the moment.
To Win (80mins)
Crusaders 1/4
Hurricanes 36/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Crusaders (-9.5) 9/10
Hurricanes (+9.5) 9/10
Todd Blackadder makes just a single change to the side that took down the Rebels two weeks back, with Tim Perry’s hamstring injury allowing for Daniel Lienert-Brown to come onto the bench as loosehead cover. Crusaders skipper Kieran Read earns his 100th cap for the Crusaders on Friday. We see a few changes to the Hurricanes side that suffered a narrow defeat to the Highlanders last week. Following a six week lay-off with knee problems, Tim Bateman makes a welcomed return to the midfield where he teams up with Conrad Smith, bringing invaluable experience into the backline. Up front, number eight Blade Thompson comes back into the run on side after a week off with injury. 45 Test veteran Cory Jane is again listed this week as unavailable for selection due to an ankle injury, but according to the All Black speedster he is in fact match fit, but is just not being picked. Could be some politics at play.
VERDICT: Crusaders (-9.5) 9/10
Both sides have had a poor start to the 2014 season, but while the Hurricanes seem to be consistently poor week after week, the Crusaders seem to be building some sort of momentum. And they have the home ground advantage. A big handicap to clear, but they have the firepower to pull it off. The Crusaders by 12.
Rebels vs Brumbies | Friday 28 March | AAMI Park | 10:40
The Brumbies look to extend their winning streak to five-in-a-row this week when they face the hapless Rebels in Melbourne.
To Win (80mins)
Rebels 5/2
Brumbies 7/20
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Rebels (+7.5) 9/10
Brumbies (-7.5) 9/10
The Rebels bring James Woodward in at fullback and Nic Stirzaker at scrumhalf this week as they attempt to put an end to their three match losing streak. We also see a new front row with Max Lahiff, Patt Leafa, and Laurie Weeks named to start against the visitors. The already impressive Brumbies backline has been considerably strengthened by the return of game-changing Christian Lealiifano after five months out of the game with ankle issues. He will start off the bench, and should reunite in the midfield with his Wallaby partner Tevita Kuridrani, who returns from a week out of the action due to a funeral.
VERDICT: Brumbies (-7.5) 9/10
The Brumbies are building good momentum week after week, and with a few extra big names at their disposal, things are only going to get worse for the Rebels. The Brumbies by 12.
Blues vs Highlanders | Saturday 29 March | Eden Park | 08:35
With only a point separating these two on the log, a victory for the Highlanders will see them usurp second spot in the New Zealand Conference from the blundering Blues.
To Win (80mins)
Blues 5/10
Highlanders 18/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Blues (-5.5) 9/10
Highlanders (+5.5) 9/10
Just to make things slightly worse for the underperforming Auckland side, coach Sir John Kirwan has now lost the services of All Black number nine Piri Weepu for at least the next month after it was discovered he had suffered a minor stroke. All Black hooker Keven Mealamu remains unavailable due to a calf injury that has kept him out of action for the last three games, but looks likely to return for their next game. The Highlanders picked up their second win of the season last week by holding off the second-half resurgence by the Hurricanes. They have not looked particularly strong at any point this season, but they have won four out of their last five clashes with the Aucklanders, which I suppose must count for something.
VERDICT: Highlanders 18/10
Not much in this game, going on current form. The Blues are the obvious favourites being at home, but the Highlanders could quite easily pull off an upset in Auckland. At 18/10, without the burden of a handicap, I’d kick myself if I missed out on it. The Highlanders by 3.
Reds vs Stormers | Saturday 29 March | Suncorp Stadium | 10:40
The Reds will be taking out all their frustrations from that ill-fated South African tour on the beleaguered Stormers this week.
To Win (80mins)
Reds 6/10
Stormers 15/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Reds (-3.5) 1/1
Stormers (+2.5) 1/1
Reds coach Richard Graham has made three changes to the side that was subjected to some questionable refereeing in Johannesburg last week. Beau Robinson earns his first start of the season taking over from injured Liam Gill at flank. Dom Shipperley starts out on the wing in place of Aidan Toua, while up front James Hanson starts at hooker. The Stormers will be only too happy to get this wretched tour of Australasia over with, an ever-growing injury list starting to take its toll on the travelling Capetonians. Damian de Allende moves from the midfield to wing for their match at Suncorp Stadium, while skipper Jean de Villiers shifts back to his preferred position at inside centre to make room for Juan de Jongh to earn his first start of the season.
VERDICT: Reds (-3.5) 1/1
I expect it’ll be all fire and brimstone at Suncorp Stadium this weekend, thanks to the tragic refereeing of Stuart Berry that denied the Reds the valuable away points they deserved against the Lions. The Reds by 7.
Bulls vs Chiefs | Saturday 29 March | Loftus Versfeld | 15:00
The Bulls pulled off an impressive win against competition front-runners the Sharks in Pretoria last week, showing they can hold their own against the best sides in the competition despite their shaky start to the season.
To Win (80mins)
Bulls 8/10
Chiefs 11/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Bulls (-1.5) 9/10
Chiefs (+1.5) 9/10
Only one change to the Bulls following their impressive victory over Jake White’s charges last week, with Akona Ndungane returning to the wing, replacing Sampie Mastriet, who falls out of the match-day 23 all together. Veteran lock Victor Matfield retains the captaincy this week, and will be hoping to use his proficiency in the lineouts, an area of concern of late for the Chiefs, to give his side the edge this week. The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season in humiliating style last week, going down to the Force in Perth. They now have to get their campaign back on track by taking down the Bulls in Pretoria, a feat far easier said than done. They were fortunate enough not to lose any players to injury in that shock loss, Tim Nanai-Williams being the only concern at the moment with a slight hamstring strain, but he should be cleared for action before the weekend.
VERDICT: Chiefs 11/10
The Bulls go in as favourites for obvious reasons, but the Chiefs play a style of rugby that has always proven problematic for the more orthodox, conservative style of the Bulls. The Chiefs to take it by 5.
Sharks vs Waratahs | Saturday 29 March| Kings Park | 17:05
The Waratahs bounced back convincingly from their Round 5 defeat to the Brumbies with a resounding 32-8 victory over the Rebels, giving them a confidence boost ahead of their two week South African stint.
To Win (80mins)
Sharks 9/20
Waratahs 19/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Sharks (-5.5) 9/10
Waratahs (+5.5) 9/10
The Sharks have taken two massive knocks in the build up to their Round 7 meeting with the Waratahs. Springbok pivot Patrick Lambie has been ruled out for the remainder of the competition with a torn bicep tendon, and half-back partner Cobus Reinach has been sidelined for the next eight weeks thanks to a fractured hand. They join lock Pieter-Steph du Toit, who was ruled out for the rest of the year earlier this month, on the more serious injury list. Waratahs coach Michael Cheika has rung in the changes for his side’s gruelling battle against the Sharks in Durban this week. Jono Lance has been awarded his debut, coming in for injured Israel Folau to start at fullback. Up front, Benn Robinson starts in the front row and Wycliff Palu earns his 100th cap for New South Wales when he runs out at eight. Skipper Dave Dennis shifts across to flank to accommodate Palu.
VERDICT: Sharks (-5.5) 9/10
The Sharks return home slightly humbled by their shattering away loss to arch rivals the Bulls in Pretoria. Thanks to his stint at the Brumbies, Jake White knows the Waratahs setup well enough to give the home side a slight advantage. Should be a tough game, but I think the Super Rugby leaders will strengthen their grip on pole position with a home win this Saturday. The Sharks by two penalties is enough for me to get on the handicap.
