Following a few shock results and some close calls, the New Zealand sides will be looking to reassert their dominance over their Trans-Tasman foes this weekend in Super Rugby.
The Australian Super Rugby Empire struck back last weekend with the Brumbies and Waratahs bagging wins over Kiwi opposition while the Reds, Force and Drua almost produced upset wins as well.
The question we’re left with now is whether last weekend was just a flash in the pan for the men from the Aussies or are they actually closing the gap on their Kiwi counterparts? Round 12 should answer that question to a degree.
Friday 6 May
Blues 1/25 | Draw 33/1 |Rebels 9/1 (09:05)
Handicap
Blues (-24.5) 9/10 | Rebels (+24.5) 9/10
The Blues will be looking to bounce back from what was an abject showing against the Force when they take on a Rebels side that managed to bag only their third win of the campaign this past weekend.
The hosts looked good during the first 40 minutes of their clash with the Force and took a 22-7 lead into the sheds. They would, however, come out in the second half lacking the intensity that they showed in the first stanza.
The Aucklanders were really lucky not to suffer a shock defeat as tries from ex-All black Jeremey Thrush and substitute Bo Abra made for a very nervy finish that saw the Force launch a number of attacks inside the Blues 22. The Kiwi side would hold off, though, and claim an 18-22 victory.
Their opponents for this Friday were also involved in an absolute thriller as they went try for try with Moana Pasifika in a very open game of rugby. Like the Blues, the Rebels also had a bit of luck in holding off a late surge from their opponents as a very late kick for touch from Lincoln MccLutchie stayed in feild and the Rebels were able to hold out and take a 26-22 win.
I’ll be having a small play on the Blues (-24.5) here. I have some concerns as the Blues have a tendency to take their foot off the gas during the second 40 minutes of a fixture. However, I have less faith in the Rebels’ defence which has been extremely poor this year.
Reds 5/10 | Draw 22/1 | Highlanders 16/10 (11:45)
Handicap
Reds (-4.5) 9/10 | Highlanders (+4.5) 9/10
The Reds will welcome a Highlanders side that kept their slim chances of making the play-offs alive last weekend as they beat the Drua in a titanic clash in Suva.
While the Highlanders managed to put in a measured, if not inspiring, performance during their 24-27 victory in Fiji, the Reds were a bit more helter-skelter during their 25-27 defeat to the Chiefs. While they piled on the pressure late in the game their ill-discipline cost them. To make matters worse for the men from Queensland they also lost prop Taniela Tupou to what looked like a moderately serious leg injury.
Last week’s defeat means the Reds have now lost 22 of their last 24 games against New Zealand opposition. I think this fixture against the Highlanders offers them an ideal chance to stop the rot, however. Back the hosts at 5/10.
Saturday 7 May
Moana Pasifika 7/2 | Draw 22/1 | Waratahs 2/9 (06:35)
Handicap
Moana Pasifika (+9.5) 9/10 | Waratahs (-9.5) 9/10
The Waratahs will be looking to build on a famous win over the Crusaders when they take on a Moana Pasifika side that suffered a heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Rebels last weekend.
Moana Pasifika just can’t seem to catch a break at the minute. They played some great rugby during their 22-26 defeat to the Rebels and looked the better side but things just didn’t go their way. And while some of their players do need to shoulder responsibility for this – Lincoln McClutchie really should have found touch late on – you just feel Lady Luck is not smiling on the new boys this term.
While the Moana Pasifika suffered a defeat in Round 11, the Waratahs produced the result of the tournament as they beat the Crusaders 24-21 in New South Wales. While they did ride their luck and they were up against a Crusaders team sans Richie Mounga, they still deserve full credit for this major upset.
I expect another very tight game here with the duo pretty evenly matched. Get on Moana Pasifika to stay within a pretty sizable handicap.
Chiefs 1/3 | Draw 22/1 | Brumbies 24/10 (09:05)
Handicap
Chiefs (-7.5) 9/10 | Brumbies (+7.5) 9/10
We’re in for an absolute cracker next up as the fourth-placed Chiefs take on the second-placed Brumbies.
Both sides enjoyed solid outings in Round 11 with the Chiefs edging the Reds 25-27 and Quinn Tupaea once again starring on the wing, while the Brumbies smashed the Hurricanes 42-25 on Sunday with flanker Rob Valentine scoring an absolute belter of a try.
Looking at the head to head stats and the Chiefs have won three of the last five clashes against the Brumbies. The Brumbies have won two of the last three encounters between the duo, however, and one of those wins came in Waikato.
This is sure to be a cagey affair with both teams keen on securing a home play-off fixture. I expect we will see a very narrow winning margin which is why I’m backing the visitors on the plus line.
Force 6/1 | Draw 33/1 | Crusaders 1/12 (11:45)
Handicap
Force (+18.5) 9/10 | Crusaders (-18.5) 9/10
The penultimate game of the weekend pits a wounded Crusaders side up against a Force team that will have taken a load of confidence from their narrow defeat to the Blues.
The importance of Richie Mo’unga was rammed home last weekend as the Crusaders couldn’t get their attack firing with back up fly-halves Fergus Burke and then Simon Hickey failing to galvanize and out of sorts ‘Saders side. They would eventually go down 24-21 to the Waratahs. Mo’unga will likely be the first name on the team sheet this weekend.
Force fans would be pleased with their sides showing last week as they really gave it their all during the second half of their encounter with the log-leading Blues. With a bit more luck they would have actually won that game.
Expect a very fired up Crusaders team to give the Force a rugby lesson this Saturday. Back the Canterbury side to sort out their discipline issues to deliver a hammering to the Force. I’m on the minus.
Sunday 8 May
To Win (80 Mins)
Hurricanes 1/8 | Draw 33/1 | Drua 5/1 (05:35)
Handicap
Hurricanes (-16.5) 9/10 | Drua (+16.5) 9/10
The round comes to a close out in Wellington where two very hit and miss sides, the Hurricanes and Drua, will do battle in what could well prove to be the most entertaining game of the round.
Both sides head into this one off the back of disappointing defeats with the Drua letting a 24-17 half-time lead slip to go down 24-27 to the Highlanders in front of an incredible crowd in Suva, while the ‘Canes were subpar during their clash with the Brumbies with multiple defensive errors seeing them leak tries and end up going down 42-25 to the Australian outfit in Canberra.
I honestly expect fireworks here with neither side afraid to run the ball from all parts of the pitch. I reckon the Drua will be able to cover what is a rather large handicap as well.
