The run in for the play-offs got even more intriguing last weekend with the Drua's 27-24 win over the Hurricanes Waratahs victory over the Reds really opening things up in the lower half of the table.
We will see more upsets and another log shake-up this coming weekend? Darry Worthington gives his opinion on the above question as he runs the rule over all the Round 12 action.
Friday 12 March
Chiefs 1/16 | Draw 33/1 | Reds 7/1
Handicap
Chiefs (-21.5) 9/10 | (+21.5) 9/10
The Chiefs will look to extend their unbeaten run in the tournament to 11 games when they take on a Queensland Reds side that is of serious risk in missing out on the play-off berths with Brad Thorn’s men currently residing in seventh spot of the Super rugby log.
It was business as usual for the Chiefs as they strolled to an 28-52 away win over domestic foes the Highlands this past weekend. The log-leaders put in a brilliant attacking display during the second stanza with Damien McKenzie once again coming to the fore. The diminutive Waikato man has really made the ten jersey his own this term and should be well in the All Black mix.
While the Chiefs were racking up another eye-catching win, the Reds were subjected to a 24-32 defeat at the hands of the Waratahs on their own patch. The Reds were well in the game at half-tme with the scores locked at 17-17 but the Waratahs would be the stronger of the sides in the second stanza with a beautifully worked counter attack resulting in a seven-pointer and then a close range try seeing them extend their lead to 29-17 with just over a quarter of the match remaining.
The Reds would hit back with a late try of their own but it would prove fruitless as they missed out on a losing bonus point by a solitary point.
I can’t see the champions-elect having any issues winning this one with consummate ease.
Chiefs on the minus.
Force 8/10 | Draw 22/1 | Drua 11/10
Handicap
Force (-1.5) 9/10 | Drua (+1.5) 9/10
We cross the Tasman for our next fixture which is a crunch game between the 11th-placed Western Force and the eighth-placed Fijian Drua. The sides are separated by four points on the log and a win for the hosts would throw them right back in the play-off mix while a victory for the visitors would almost assure their first ever appearance in the play-off phase of the tournament.
The Force had a week to forget as they were hammered 48-13 by the Crusaders. There were few positives for the men from Perth to take from the fixture, although they will be somewhat pleased with their defence in the final ten-minutes which held up a lot better than it did in the earlier phases of the game.
The Drua had a far more positive Round 11 with the Fijians claiming their second Kiwi skulp of the year as they beat the Hurricanes 27-24 in Suva. This was a massive statement from the Fijians who had to come back from 14-24 down with 20 minutes left on the board to take the win.
The Drua are a very competent side and are getting better and better as the weeks pass. I can see them taking this one at a canter.
Drua to take it at 11/10.
Saturday 13 May
Hurricanes 1/25 | Draw 45/1 | Moana Pasifika 9/1
Handicap
Canes (-22.5) 9/10 | Moana (+22.5) 9/10
The Hurricanes will be looking to bounce back from their narrow defeat at the hands of the Fijian Drua when they take on a Moana Pasifika side that came oh so close to upsetting the Blues in Auckland.
This weekend’s hosts put in a rather poor showing out in Suva with skipper Ardie Savea stating “We weren’t good enough because the Drua were awesome; they put us under a lot of pressure. They’re very dangerous, very scary’ following the full-time whistle. The Wellington outfit seemed to have had the game well and truly under their control with 20-minutes remaining but handling errors and some poor reads on defence would hand the initiative to the Drau, who took it.
Moana Pasifika, on the other hand, gave a brilliant account of themselves during their heartbreaking 31-30 defeat to the big guns from Auckland. They worked really hard to build up a seven-point lead heading into the dying embers of the game but a late scrum siege from the Blues resulted in the penalty try that left the new boys winless with 11 rounds having passed in the season.
Moana Pasifika must be in tatters psychologically after last week’s defeat. They gave everything they could and still couldn’t get over the line. I can see them struggling this weekend.
Canes to clear the handicap.
Crusaders 4/10 | Draw 25/1 | Blues 2/1
Handicap
Saders (-6.5) 9/10 | Blues (+6.5) 9/10
There’s an absolute cracker of a game next month with the Crusaders and Blues renewing their age old rivarly at the OrangeTheory Stadium this Saturday. Both sides haven’t exactly shot the lights out this season with the Crusaders sitting fourth on the standings with seven wins from ten games and the Blues a point ahead of them in third with an identical win record.
The hosts gave a decent account of themselves last weekend hammering the Western Force 48-13. While they will be happy with the result, they’ll be even more pleased with the form shown by All Black Will Jordan, who had a brilliant game on his return from a lengthy injury layoff.
The Blues didn’t fare as well in Round 11 as they scrapped a one-point win over competition cellar-dwellers Moana Pasifika. While there were mitigating circumstances with Beauden Barret pulling out of the fixture during the warm-up and Moana Pasifika playing the best rugby they have played this term, you would still have expected more from a Blues side loaded with All Black talent.
They’re looking better with each passing week and I reckon they’ll take this one by five points or so.
Crusaders to clear the handicap.
Waratahs 1/3 | Draw 22/1 | Rebels 24/10
Handicap
Tahs (-8.5) 9/10 | Rebels (+8.5) 9/10
The ‘Tahs will be looking to build on their impressive showing in Queensland last weekend when they take on a Rebels side who sit just outside the quarter-final berths.
The hosts for Saturday gave their play-offs hopes a massive boost with their 24-32 win over the Reds. They were full of industry in the fixture with their backline producing some brilliant attacking rugby at times and their forward pack fronting up.
The Rebels also gave a decent account of themselves in Round 11 but would end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard as they went down 26-33 to the Brumbies. They were desperately unlucky to not get a draw out of their game as they laid siege to the Brumbies trline during the final five-minutes of the fixture but ended up being held up over the tryline twice.
This should honestly be a belter of a game with both sides having improved greatly in recent weeks. My money is on the ‘Tahs dangerous backs seeing them to victory with a couple late tries.
Get on the Tahs at 1/3.
Sunday 14 May
Brumbies 1/4 | Draw 25/1 | Highlanders 3/1
Handicap
Brumbies (-10.5) 9/10 | Highlanders (+10.5) 9/10
The curtain comes down on the Round 12 action at the GIO Stadium where the best performing Australian side, the Brumbies will take on the worst performing New Zealand outfit, the Highlanders.
The hosts currently sit pretty on the Super Rugby Pacific standings and a win here would give them a massive chance of booking a home semi-final berth with a few weeks to spare. The Highlanders, on the other hand, are two-points adrift of the final play-off berth and need to start picking up points if they are to advance to the next round of the ‘comp.
Last weekend saw the Brumbies edge the Rebels by seven-points in an absolute cracker of an Aussie derby. While the men from Canberra looked very tidy with ball-in-hand, they were not so solid without it and will need to sure-up the defensive side of their game if they are to take the win here.
Round 11 was far less kind to the Highlanders who were given a rugby lesson by the red-hot Chiefs. While the men from Otago managed to bag a fair few points, they were torn apart defensively.
The Highlanders haven’t looked up to task this season and I just cannot see them getting a win over a Brumbies side that has looked good all campaign.
Brumbies at (-10.5) 9/10.
