Lower down the log there's an almighty scrap for the final two play-off places with the Highlanders, Rebels, Drua and Force all battling it out for a ticket to the next phase of the competition.
Friday 19 March
Moana Pasifika 15/4 | Draw 40/1 | Crusaders 2/11
Handicap
Moana Pasifika (+12.5) 9/10 | Crusaders (-12.5) 9/10
We kick things off at Mt Smart Stadium where winless Moana Pasifika will be looking to break their duck when they take on a Crusaders side looking to close in on the top two.
The hosts for Friday’s encounter struggled to match the solid Round 11 showing against the Blues and were blown away by the Hurricanes, going down 71-22 in Wellington. Tired legs were evident in the fixture and this is an area the Crusaders will exploit this weekend.
The Crusaders had a far better time of it in Round 12 as they registered a 15-3 home win over the Blues. While it was far from the prettiest game of Rugby, the Crusaders will be happy with their efforts particularly those of their forwards who laid the groundwork for the gritty victory.
I feel Moana Pasifika has run out of gas as their squad has been stretched to the limit. I cannot see them being competitive against Canterbury’s finest.
Saders on the minus.
Reds 3/1 | Draw 25/1 | Blues 1/4
Handicap
Reds (+10.5) 9/10 | Blues (-10.5) 9/10
Friday’s final fixture should be a colourful affair with the Reds and Blues locking horns at Suncorp Stadium. While both sides will likely gain qualification to the quarter-finals, the duo have been subpar this term with the Reds only winning five of their 11 fixtures while the Blues have won seven out of their 11.
The Queenslanders come into this one off the back of a fantastic result, however, as they beat tournament pacesetters, the Chiefs, 22-25 in Waikato. It was a performance that personified outgoing head coach Brad Thon’s character; full of grit and bordering on violence.
Thorn’s loose trio was absolutely devastating against the Chiefs while his backs ensured their opponents were unable to get over the gainline as they pressed up every time the Chiefs went deep and looked to exploit the space on the outside. If they can replicate this defensive display this weekend, then they may well claim another Kiwi skulp.
The Blues had a tougher time of it in Round 12 going down 15-3 to the Crusaders in a dour New Zealand derby. a stout Crusaders defence and some poor decision making deep in the Crusaders lead to the Blues defeat.
I fancy the hosts to keep this one tight. Last week’s win will have been a massive confidence boost for them and they seem to have found a system that causes the Kiwi sides problems.
Reds on the plus.
Chiefs 2/9 | Draw 25/1 | Hurricanes 33/10
Handicap
Chiefs (-12.5) 9/10 | Canes (+12.5) 9/10
We’ve got the pick of the round’s fixture next up with a wounded Chiefs outfit taking on a ‘Canes side that have been in red-hot form on attack.
The Chiefs were extremely disappointing against the Reds last weekend with their inability to adjust to the Australians’ rush defence seeing them really struggle on attack. And while they did come into the game during the latter patches of the 80-minutes, they deserved to be on the wrong side of the 22-25 scoreline.
The ‘Canes had a far better time of it in Rund 12 as they let loose on attack hammering cellar-dwellers, Moana Pasifika, 71-22. They will need to take their game up another notch this weekend as this Chiefs side wll offer a lot more on defence and attack then Moana did.
The ‘Canes have thrown the Chiefs a massive bone here resting All Blacks Ardie Savea, Jordie Barrett and Tyrel Lomax in a bid to adhere to All Black rest protocols. This has handed a massive advantage to the hosts and I can see them exploiting it to the fullest.
Chiefs to clear the handicap.
Waratahs 1/5 | Draw 25/1 | Drua 15/4
Handicap
Tahs (-11.5) 9/10 | Drua (+11.5) 9/10
The Waratahs and Drua will lock horns in the penultimate game of the weekend and both sides eager to advance their play-off prospects. A win for the hosts would book them a spot in the next round and also keep them in the hunt for a home quarter-final, while a win for the Drua would see them head into the final two weeks of the round-robin phase as one of the favourites to claim a quarter-final.
The ‘Tahs hot streak continued in Round 12 with the New South Wales side grabbing their third win on the trot as they beat the Rebels 38-20. Their backline was on fire once again with recently capped Wallaby Mark Nawaqanitawase grabbing yet another vital try.
While the ‘Tahs impressed with a comeback win, the Drua struggled going down 34-14 to the Force. They didn’t get their running game going at all but that’s likely to be a flash in the pan moment, and we can expect the Drua to once again impress on attack this coming weekend.
The Waratahs have really impressed in recent weeks and I can see them comfortably beating a Drua side that looks to be running out of steam.
Tahs on the minus.
Force 5/2 | Draw 25/1 | Brumbies 3/10
Handicap
Force (+8.5) 9/10 | Brumbies (-8.5) 9/10
It’s an all Aussie affair for our final clash with a Force side looking to scrape their way into the play-offs taking on a Brumbies side that are in with a shout of usurping the Chiefs into pole position after the men from Waikato’s defeat to the Reds last weekend.
The Force gave a really good account of themselves this past weekend beating the Drua 34-14. It was a solid defensive display from the men from Perth, who also were tidy with ball in hand.
Like their opponents, the Brumbies also registered a win in Round 12 beating the Highlanders 48-32. They will be keen to sure-up the defensive side of their game as they let in some soft tries against the underperforming Kiwi outfit.
The Force have fared alright in Australian derbies this term and while I don’t see them winning this one, I can see them keeping pace with their domestic rivals.
Force at 5/2.
