Darry Worthington has a look at all of the Super Rugby goings on that you might have missed including key transfers and off-season news. He also takes a stab at predicting who will contend, who will battle it out in the middle of the pack and which unfortunate side will receive the dreaded wooden spoon.
Off-Season News & Format Changes
The Melbourne Rebels fell on their sword at the close of last season with the franchise unable to sustain itself financially. This means we’re down to 11 teams contesting the title.
The format will feature 16 rounds with teams playing local rivals twice – both home and away – and one-off fixtures against teams from the opposing conference equating to 14 fixtures for each team and two bye weeks.
The competition then moves into a three-week long play-off format which sees the top 6 teams advancing to this stage where the sides will be seeded according to finishing order on the log with the first seeds taking on the sixth seeds, the second seeds taking on the fifth and the third seeds taking on the fourth.
This is where things get a bit interesting/convoluted – depending on the way you view it – with a ‘lucky loser’ now being introduced. This team will make up the fourth team in the semi-finals and will be decided by which of the highest-seeded teams lose their play-off fixture. It’s then back to the regular semi-finals through to the final.
Some other changes ahead of this season include the end of ‘Super Weekends’ while the scrum clock is still in play.
The 2025 #SuperRugbyPacific season format is here 📣
— Super Rugby Pacific (@SuperRugby) September 12, 2024
Here is an explainer of how the competition will operate from an exciting round 1 through to the Grand Final 🏆 pic.twitter.com/yEtPOOVift
The Big Transfers
There were some huge moves during the off-season with the biggest seeing Ardie Savea move from the Hurricanes to Moana Pasifika, with the All Black talisman looking to give back to his nation of birth. Savea will link up with former teammate Jackson Garden-Bachop, who has also signed on with Moana.
Officially official ✍🏽
— Moana Pasifika Rugby (@MoanaPasifika_) July 21, 2024
Welcome to the MP aiga Ardie Savea 🩵 pic.twitter.com/HRW7sXCScE
Savea wasn’t the only big switch with Beauden Barrett returning to the Blues after a sabbatical in Japan while his brother Jordie has moved to Leinster, meaning the Hurricanes have lost another key player.
Keeping with the Kiwi sides and Wallaby James O’Connor has made the switch to the Crusaders, who will be hoping the mercurial utility back’s arrival coincides with an upswing in fortunes for them after a poor 2024 campaign. He’s joined by Levi Aumua and Macca Springer as the standouts in the Crusaders transfer business.
While the Crusaders have looked at overseas options, the Chiefs have kept things local bringing in Brodie McCalister and SVNS sensation Leroy Carter.
Leroy Carter 🤝 Sidesteps #HSBCSVNS | @nz_sevens pic.twitter.com/PYMffEfOGK
— HSBC SVNS (@SVNSSeries) August 14, 2024
While the Chiefs and Crusaders have kept the transfers down to single figures, the Highlanders have gone wild bringing in a total of 10 new recruits including Thomas Umanga-Jensen.
Looking at the big moves across the Tasman, the Waratahs have done some very shrewd business signing up Rugby League convert Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii – who was very much the breakout start of the Autumn Nations Series – as well as his fellow Wallabies Rob Leota, the ‘Tongan Thor’ Taniela Tupou, and Andrew Kellaway.
Right at home 🦘
— Wallabies (@wallabies) November 10, 2024
Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii debut highlights ▶️#Wallabies pic.twitter.com/KzEJBYr2iP
The Reds too have got some international talent through the doors with Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, and Filipo Daugunu linking up with the Queensland outfit.
On the other side of Australia, the Force have brought in a raft of fresh blood including Darcy Swain, Matt Proctor and Bradon Paenga-Amosa.
The Brumbies have been the least active of the sides with ACT’s finest making just three signings with the standout being prop Feao Fotuaika from Top 14 side Lyon.
Like the Brumbies, the Drua have kept signings to a handful but they may well have struck gold by luring young centre Inia Tabuavou from the Top 14 to Super Rugby.
Inia Tabuavou is sailing with us in 2025💪🏾⛵#TosoDrua #PacificAusSports pic.twitter.com/vae3Vjd1Vh
— Fijian Drua (@Fijian_Drua) August 1, 2024
The Contenders
So which sides deserve our attention? Well, you can’t help but look past last season’s finalists, the Blues and Chiefs.
Both teams are absolutely stacked with talent with Beauden Barrett back for the Blues, while Damien McKenzie – who was arguably the player of last year’s tournament – just gets better and better in that number 10 jersey.
They’ve both managed to keep the core of their squads with the Blues’ only major losses being Akira Ioane – whose stock has been on the wane in New Zealand – and Bryce Heem, while the Chiefs have parted ways with back-up fly-half Josh Ioane.
I also expect two of the Australian sides to give a decent account of themselves this season with the Brumbies just too consistent not to make the top four while the Waratahs have made some outstanding moves in the transfer market including the acquisition of the most exciting talent in Australian Union Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii. I expect a vastly improved showing from the New South Wales side who finished rock bottom last season.
The two Australian sides have slightly less of an advantage this term as the Rebels are gone, which means they have fewer derbies to play. However, I feel the Force may well be this year’s whipping boys so that could be an easy 10 points off one side for both of these teams.
Predicted Top Four: Blues, Chiefs, Brumbies, and Waratahs
Mid-Table Mess
Things get interesting in the mid-table scramble as I expect the Drua and Moana Pasifika to really mix it up this year. The Drua bagged their first quarter-final appearance last season and I’m expecting even more from them this term. Moana have signed one of the best players in the world as their captain and Ardie Savea should really galvanize this side, who showed at times last year that they can mix it with the best. They’ve also invested heavily in two new fly halves, an area of weakness for them last term.
The three other sides I can see challenging for the final few play-off spots are the Hurricanes, Reds and Crusaders. The Hurrianes were the standout side during last season’s group phase and ended up at the top of the pile at the close of the regular season but their campaign ended at the semi-final stage where they went down to the Chiefs in Wellington.
They have lost two key players in Jordie Barrett and Ardie Savea while Thomas Umanga-Jensen, TJ Perenarra and Salesi Rayasi have also moved on. With those big names gone, I feel the ‘Canes may struggle to make the play-offs.
The Crusaders, who endured their worst Super Rugby campaign ever as they missed out on play-offs rugby finishing ninth on the ladder, will look to turn things around here and I can see them grabbing one of the last play-off spots. They still have issues though with the fly-half berth having a major Richie Mo’unga-shaped hole in it. They have brought in a couple bruising centres and I think a crash/bash style of rugby may well just get them into fifth or sixth place come the close of the regular season.
While the Crusaders missed out on the 2024 play-offs, the Reds managed to grab a berth but were well-beaten by the Chiefs in the quarter-finals. They have some promising talent on their books with Tom Lynagh, Fraser McWreight, Hamish Stewart and Tim Ryan likely to lead the charge for the Reds. I do feel that they can only play an expansive game of rugby, which is great to watch but as the Blues illustrated last season, you need a bit more than that to take a Super Rugby title.
Predicted Fifth and Sixth Play-Off Spots: Drua and Crusaders
Seventh: Reds
Eighth: Hurricanes
Ninth: Moana Pasifika
Fighting for Scraps
The place no team wants to be! I can see the Highlanders and Force battling it out for the wooden spoon.
The Highlanders actually gave a decent account of themselves last term with a late-season surge seeing them to sixth place. I felt they were exposed in the quarter-finals though where they were beaten 32-16 by the Brumbies. They’ve lost a couple of workmanlike players who were crucial to getting them to the quarters last season with Connor Garden-Bachop, Billy Harmon and Pari Pari Parkinson all moving on. They may well struggle without that grit these players offered.
While I see the Highlanders winning a couple of games, I think the Force could well end up with only a win or two under their belts. While they have proved to be a tough nut to crack at home, teams around them have improved and they are tipped to struggle against the likes of Moana Pasifika and the Drua this term. Their off-season signings don’t inspire me either and I reckon it will be a long old campaign for the Force.
11th: Highlanders
Wooden Spoon: Force
