Gary Lemke looks at the lay of the land as the Premier League field enters the home straight in what has been a pulsating season.
All Over For Misfiring Gunners?
With the calendar about to click over into May, it’s officially Squeaky Bum Time, a phrase coined by the great Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson.
That doesn’t only apply to the top of the English Premier League table, where Man City confirmed themselves as 1/10 favourites to win the title – Arsenal have eased to 9/1 – with that 4-1 midweek drubbing. Despite Arsenal still being two points clear, City have two games in hand.
Should the Gunners win all five of their remaining games, that would leave them on 90 points. City therefore need 17 points (their superior goal difference basically counts for a point) from their last seven games.
However, being the League that it is, can the misfiring Gunners finish with a flurry? It’s all set up for City, but it ain’t over yet.
Arsenal have bottled it since Firmino scored… pic.twitter.com/i0j2w33Nia
— Samuel (@SamueILFC) April 26, 2023
Relegation Scrap Shaping Up To Be A Classic
It does look over for Southampton though, at the other end of the table.
Their 1-0 home defeat to Bournemouth, their fierce south coast arch-rivals, leaves them on 24 points with five games left. They actually require six points just to mathematically get out of the drop zone, but that would mean Leeds and Nottingham Forest have to lose their next two games too.
There are squeaky bums all over the land. Everton now find themselves in the relegation mix – how ironic that they could be going down with their manager Sean Dyche, while Burnley, who have been promoted – return to the EPL having dispensed of Dyche a year ago after a decade with Burnley.
They used to say that 40 points was when a team had ensured their top-flight safety. Currently, that means every club from first to 10th is safe, although in truth this season 35 points would probably ensure safety. That’s because Southampton can reach a maximum 39, Everton 43 and Leicester 44 points were they to win all their remaining games and others lose theirs. Very unlikely.
A priceless win. Wolves are now NINE points clear of the relegation zone 🐺🟠 pic.twitter.com/BY2zURmApS
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) April 25, 2023
Some Stats To Keep In Mind Before Having A Bet This Weekend
Wolves Pull Off Great(ish) Escape
Wolves have produced something of a miracle, being bottom of the EPL at Christmas but surviving relegation. It might be slightly skewed however, because this past Christmas there were only 15 games played up to then, due to the World Cup break, but they have confounded the trend. Since the EPL started in 1992, only West Brom (2004/05), Sunderland (2013/14) and Leicester (2014/15) were bottom at Christmas and survived. So Wolves will make it four teams in 31 seasons to avoid the drop. The chances are that the 2023/24 season will revert to the norm.
Chelsea’s Horrific Post-World Cup Run
Despite spending nearly £600 million on new players under new owner Todd Boehly, and £300m in January alone, Chelsea have dropped to 11th place on the table, and their 30 goals scored in 32 games is only better than 13th-placed Wolves (29), 17th-placed Forest (29), 19th-placed Everton (25) and 20th-placed Southampton (27). Their run since the World Cup break reads like a Welsh town, DLLWDDDLLWWDLDLLL, but those 15 points from 17 games is one of the worst sequences of results in their history. In those 17 games, they’ve scored 11 goals and conceded 18.
Toffees In Trouble
Speaking of history, Everton, who were founded in 1878, 14 years earlier than their Merseyside rivals Liverpool, are in serious danger of relegation. Here’s a fact: They are one of only six clubs who have never been relegated from the EPL since it started in 1992. The others? Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea.
Leicester’s Goals Could See Them Avoid Drop
Those who read this column will know that I have backed Leicester to beat the drop. They remain the only team to have not kept a clean sheet since the World Cup break, but they score enough goals to stay up. They’ve earned four points from their last two games, and are in the middle of a four-game spell that could ensure their survival. None of the 11 teams from 10th down have scored more goals than them (44). Next up are Everton and Fulham.
LiVARpool And The Impact Of Video Tech This Season
VAR is quite a talking point and I’ve been keeping tabs on its impact. There are various tables doing the rounds of how the table would look if each decision made on the field had stood, but interesting is the one where it shows which team have benefited most (in terms of net goals) from decisions that have been overturned by VAR. Here’s the list: Liverpool (+6 goals), Brentford, Fulham (+5), Newcastle, Forest (+3), Villa (+1), Man United, West Ham (0), Bournemouth, Chelsea, Palace, Everton, Leeds, Southampton, Wolves (-1), Arsenal, Leicester, Man City (-2), Tottenham (-3) and Brighton (-7). Little wonder rival fans call them LiVARpool.
