Written by @Wayde_D for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Argentina vs Iran | Saturday 21 June | Estadio Mineirao, Belo Horizonte | 18:00
Group F favourites Argentina kicked off their World Cup campaign in perfect style and now need just a win against Asian opponents Iran to secure a place in the knockout stages. Iran came out of their match against Nigeria with a point and will look to play a similar defensive game against Argentina, pushing for maximum points in their last game against Bosnia. Argentina defeated Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 in their first World Cup match at the legendary Maracana stadium on Sunday.
To Win (90mins)
Argentina 1/8
Draw 72/10
Iran 20/1
Argentina
A Lionel Messi wonder-strike lit up an otherwise dour affair in which Alejandro Sabella’s side were troubled by an excellent Bosnia-Herzegovina outfit. It was the start the Albiceleste had been hoping for, putting them in a good position to win their group and launch themselves into the knockout stages with confidence and momentum. After settling on a consistent 4-3-3 formation for the majority of the qualifiers, Alejandro Sabella surprisingly mixed things up for Argentina’s first group game, opting to start with a 5-3-2 instead. The decision may have been tactical, but more likely it was due to injury concerns. Gonzalo Higuain is only just recovering from an ankle injury, while his most like-for-like replacement, Rodrigo Palacio, also picked up an ankle knock against Trinidad and Tobago. Ezequiel Lavezzi had not shown good enough goalscoring form in the warm-up matches, so the Argentine coach probably decided his best option was to play with one less striker and give his side extra width. Even though Argentina led 1-0 at halftime, Sabella basically admitted at the break that he had started with the wrong formation by reverting to his tried-and-tested method. The 5-3-2 left the Albiceleste outnumbered in midfield, with Messi forced to drop deep and Sergio Aguero isolated up front. The 4-3-3 reappeared in the second term, with Hugo Campagnaro replaced by forward Higuain and the ineffective Maxi Rodriguez swapped with Fernando Gago. Argentina were a vastly better side from that point on and appeared far more comfortable in possession and more threatening in attack. The extra space afforded Messi allowed him to score his spectacular goal.
Iran
The steady stream of goals and entertaining football in Brazil was always going to run dry at some point, and no-one was particularly surprised that it happened in Iran’s match against Nigeria on Monday night. The match ended goalless with Iran looking pleased after soaking up pressure the entire match. Coach Carlos Queiroz has bristled at suggestions in recent days that his team are negative but they did what they do best; keep a clean sheet. They arrived at the World Cup with more of them than any other qualifier – although it has to be pointed out that their opponents on the road to Brazil included Maldives, Qatar and Lebanon. Lone striker Reza Ghoochannejhad and attacking midfielder Ashkan Dejagah were their liveliest players going forward but were stopped in their tracks on countless occasions after passing one or two players. The Iranians rely more heavily on set pieces for goals than any other side in Brazil, with 40% of their qualification goals being created from dead ball situations. The Iranians also managed not to concede a single long-range goal during qualifying, one of only four teams to achieve this. However, Argentina’s game is played around Barcelona star Messi who thrives on one two’s to get closer to goal and his trickery could be too much for the Iranians to deal with.
VERDICT: Argentina (-1) 7/20
There is a big gap in quality between these sides with Argentina possessing the most lethal number of attackers in their squad in this World Cup, while Iran’s lone striker plys his trade for Charlton Athletic in the English Championship. Argentina are ranked as second favourites to win the tournament while Iran are ranked thirtieth, ahead of just Australia and Honduras. The home win is priced up short so rather go with Argentina to win by more than one goal on the handicap.
