Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.
Croatia vs Mexico | Monday 23 June | Arena Pernambuco, Recife | 22:00
Miguel Herrera’s Mexican side showed a surprisingly cohesive front against the megalithic Brazilians. Niko Kovac would have been delighted with Croatia’s demolition of a hapless Cameroon side, but will know that the Indomitable Lions were hardly the greatest barometer of their qualification credentials. Mario Mandzukic showed his pedigree against Cameroon and will need to be a constant threat to the Mexican side here. Javier Hernandez, the master of penalty box sniping, has yet to ninja his way into the Mexican side and will likely end up on the bench. This is an all-important fixture, that sees Mexico in search of either a draw or win, while Croatia need all three points. This is effectively the first knock-out game of the competition and will really highlight the magnitude of the tournament.
To Win (90mins)
Croatia 27/20
Draw 24/10
Mexico 18/10
Croatia
Luka Modric managed to play all ninety minutes against Cameroon, debunking concerns regarding his fitness following the Brazil match. One concern for Niko Kovac will be the highly industrious Mexican midfield, which may revel in Croatia’s lack of a world-class holding midfielder. Croatia need to win, which will necessitate the continuation of the Rakitic-Modric midfield duo that has come to define this exciting Croatian side. Ivica Olic came in to replace Nikica Jelavic in support of Mandzukic, a trend that will continue considering Jelavic’s minimal work ethic.
Ivan Perisic terrified the Cameroon side with his electrifying pace on the left hand flank. Eduardo De Silva also provides a dynamic attacking option should the Croatian side require an extra bit of bite in the second half. It is interesting to note the similarities between the two sides, whose impressive attacking options seem to outshine their respective defensive abilities. Srna, Corluka and Lovren offer a physical threat, but will they be able to deal with the mobility of a Mexican side slowly gaining in confidence?
Mexico
Jose Vazquez, Hector Herrera and Andrea Guardado provide a powerful midfield trio that will test the slightly lightweight central midfield of the Croatian side. Guardado in particular has looked every bit the combative midfield general needed in tournaments of such intense physical demands. Javier Hernandez has only featured in brief cameo roles, a painful relic of what was a difficult season at Old Trafford. Peralta has shown his natural predatory instinct, while Giovanni dos Santos is the one enigmatic weapon that can make something happen out of nothing.
Guillermo Ochoa was amazing in goal against the Brazilians; the one save to deny Neymar may just go down as one of the greatest all-time World Cup saves. Rafael Marquez has been solid in his history-making fourth World Cup and will be tested against a Croatian side full of attacking talent. Their defensive performance against Brazil, particularly in the first half, will give them the belief that they will be able to get the point necessary for qualification.
VERDICT: Draw 24/10
This has all the ingredients of a potential classic in the making. Croatia, with nothing to lose, will open up the game and invite an frantic encounter. Mexico will soak up the pressure and should be able to withstand the Croatian onslaught. Knowing that a draw will be enough, I expect Mexico to sit back and remain largely solid as they attain the point they require to advance.
The man knows his football, but even he gets it wrong from time to time. Feel free to share your view below.
