The most remarkable nation heading into the round of 16, Japan, takes on the 2018 World Cup runners-up, Croatia, who know it’s now or never at the Al Janoub Stadium. Will the Samurai Blue continue to slay giants, or will 37-year-old captain Luka Modrić lead the Vatreni to victory?
To Win Match
Japan 28/20 | Draw 9/4 | Croatia 21/20
In hindsight, we can see that Japan entered Group E with a solid plan. The manner in which they have performed against football heavyweights has proven successful only through rigorous implementation of a game plan. To finish top of a group that was labelled the ‘Group of Death’ is an accomplishment for the history books.
Japan’s opening test was the 2014 world champions and among other upsets, in the tournament, a 2-1 victory over Germany was arguably the biggest. The Samurai Blue had Costa Rica in matchday two, who faced a hefty 7-0 defeat prior, but failed to seal group progression suffering a 1-0 defeat. Finally, on the final matchday with numerous permutations, Japan had to overcome another ‘insurmountable’ task, and they did that with class defeating the 2010 champions 2-1.
Head coach Hajime Moriyasu has found a perfect blend of tactics and determination from his side. Hajime currently holds the best win percentage of any Japanese national team coach in charge of more than five fixtures at 67.80% with 40 wins, eight draws, and 11 losses to date. We can see that Japan plays a game of two halves, introducing a defender for a winger and switching to a back five utilizing wingbacks to counter and dominate in possession further up the field (against Germany) while creating a stronger defensive line when pressed into their defensive half (against Spain).
Japan carries a unique blend of character and age from the eldest outfield players in 36-year-old Yuto Nagatomo (141 caps) and 34-year-old captain Maya Yoshida (125 caps), to the youngest of the lot Takefuso Kubo (22 caps) who holds a wealth of club experience. However, they do have a decent amount of injury doubts in defenders Takehiro Tomiyasu and Hiroki Sakai and midfielder Wataru Endo, alongside a now-suspended defender Ko Itakura who picked up yellows against Costa Rica and Spain respectively.
Croatia has been impressive over the last few major competitions and is undoubtedly always an outside favourite. However, fans and pundits wrote off the South-eastern European nation’s chances at a deep run in the Qatar edition of the World Cup with a host of aging players.
While there is no easy group in any World Cup, Group F seemed arguably the most cut-and-dry on paper. Croatia had to really grind out their opening point in a 0-0 stalemate versus Morocco. Their follow-up fixture against Canada showed the world they are still able to outclass, outwit, and overall outplay their opponents with a 4-1 victory. Finally, the Vatreni needed to avoid defeat over the number two-ranked FIFA nation, Belgium, and they were capable of doing so in another goalless deadlock to finish group runners-up.
Zlatko Dalic’s side sat at the summit of Group F heading into the final group stage fixture with Belgium and failed to top their group. While the Balkan nation has always had drawn-out fixtures due to the lack of a direct approach or you could say patient approach, but they have impressed on occasion.
The Croatians are injury free and just two players are in danger of suspension heading into their round of 16 tie. Most of the starting eleven have been unchanged throughout the tournament with a great centre-back pairing of Dejan Lovren and the uber-impressive 20-year-old Joško Gvardiol. However, apart from Gvardiol, most of the sides are past their primes – with regards to football age.
Verdict: Draw (9/4)
The pressure is on Croatia to progress here, while Japan seems extremely grateful for every victory. Dalic’s cohesive unit does not change its tempo irrespective of the time, score, or calibre of the side ahead of them, while Japan has shown they play a game of two different halves changing entire formations and doing whatever it takes to win. With all tactics, personnel, and desire concerned a 90-minute draw is a very likely result.
