An injury and covid-affected Chelsea travel to Birmingham to face Aston Villa in what promises to be an explosive Boxing Day Premier League fixture. Ryan Liberty previews.
English Premier League
Sunday 26 December
Villa Park
19:30
To Win Match
Aston Villa 46/10 | Draw 29/10 | Chelsea 6/10
Aston Villa
Aston Villa under Steven Gerrard have been excellent. They are playing like a football side with a clear identity, one that includes watertight defensive solidity and excellent, cohesive attacking.
You may be wondering when the honeymoon period will come to an end, but the way Aston Villa have played is almost a clear replication of the sort of player Steven Gerrard was. There is a passion as well as fearless and gritty undertone associated with Villa.
COVID-19 has once again wreaked havoc on the league, and unfortunately, we haven’t been able to enjoy a full complement of fixtures in quite some time. Villa have been duly affected, they will assumedly still be without many first-choice players and come into the game with frustrating disruptions to their preparation.
Villa will be eyeing a top ten finish, something I think they will be more than capable of achieving given the performances they are consistently registering. This game would usually be seen as a tough, but relatively straightforward fixture for Chelsea…and again it’s only credit to the work Gerard has done at Villa Park.
Chelsea
I’m a little worried by Chelsea’s performance. Yes, Thomas Tuchel can question the league’s decision to have them go ahead with the fixture. He can question whether it is right and just that the league continues as normal amidst the latest disturbances…but at the end of the day it’s their performances of late that are so questionable.
Liverpool and City know exactly how they play, and they will play that way come hell or high water. Now I’m not questioning the style employed at Chelsea – like any of you, I’m a huge fan – but the ease with which it disappears when circumstances become difficult is worrying.
The Blues have won just once from their last five games in all competitions. In the Premier League, they have only managed to pick up two points from the six on offer and suddenly that title race is starting to slip from their grasp. Now before you start scoffing at your paper or computer screen, I’m not suggesting they are no longer title challengers. What I am saying is that in this league with teams like Manchester City around – if you stumble…you’re out!
If you’re Chelsea, you don’t want this game right now. Villa will have a go and almost see themselves as the favourites to come away with a positive result. Villa Park will be alive and willing their side on. If they get into Chelsea’s face and make the game uncomfortable the onus switches immediately over to Chelsea.
There’s no doubt Chelsea have the players – well I’m assuming (all things considered) – and they have the manager and the experience to turn this run around. Tuchel doesn’t need to be managing in the league for too long to realize the importance of the Christmas and New Year period. If there was a time to galvanize a team and squeeze out a response it will be on Boxing Day.
Liverpool play Leeds and given the current climate at Elland Road, Liverpool will win relatively easy. City play a Leicester side who are not what they once were, but again have the players to turn up. Chelsea must win this game to stay within touching distance of those two, simple as that.
Ignore the managerial manipulation of the press conferences, we’ve heard it all before as well. The “we only worry about ourselves and our performances” line will inevitably rear its old and shaggy head…but the reality is this: the more of a gap that forms between you and the leaders, the more pressure inevitably applies going forward.
Verdict: Aston Villa/Draw double chance @ 12/10
This prediction is made almost entirely from the magical combination of football understanding with enough punter. Taking everything I’ve outlined into account, there is absolutely no feasible reason to back Chelsea at 11/20. They haven’t put in a performance deserving of your hard-earned money in quite some time.
Aston Villa on the win/draw double chance is the bet, and for an extra Christmas nugget I wouldn’t try and dissuade you from having a little flutter with Villa on the straight win as well for some extra credit going into the New Year!
