We take a a look at selected quarter-finals from the ATP Tour's Cincinnati Open featuring Danil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta and Casper Rudd vs Alex Zverev.
2021 ATP Tour
Masters 1000 Series
Cincinnati Open
Lindner Family Tennis Centre (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals- 20th and 21st August
Danil Medvedev 1/5 | Pablo Carreno Busta 34/10
Medvedev is once again showing his mastery of North-American hardcourt conditions. After felling the giant tree that is Reilly Opelka in Toronto last week, he is aiming to become just the 7th man in the Open era to capture the Cincinnati-Toronto double. This flat-hitting hardcourt demon exploded onto the scene with his unreal exploits on these surfaces in 2019: he reached four consecutive North-American hardcourt finals that year! That included victory in this event and a pulsating defeat to Rafa at the US Open final. Medvedev closed out 2020 in emphatic style, winning the Paris Masters and ATP World Tour Finals, solidifying his status as the premium three-set hardcourt player in men’s tennis. This year has been quite consistent for the Russian. He reached the final in Melbourne after he helped Russia secure the ATP Cup. Further titles in Mallorca and Marseille were followed by last week’s Canadian brilliance. Medvedev is at the top of his game and is yet to drop a set this week. He just swatted away 2017 Cincinnati champ Grigor Dimitrov with almost regal disdain. He looks rather intimidating at present.
Pablo Carreno Busta slyly came into this event as one of the in-form players in men’s tennis. He won the German Open prior to a grandstand Olympic performance. He beat both Danil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic en route to a remarkable Bronze Medal. Two consecutive straight-sets victories this week take his record in his last 12 matches to 11-1. He has risen to number 12 in the ATP rankings- just two spots behind his previous highest position. When it comes to Carreno Busta, what you see is what you get. He is an ultra-reliable baseliner who never seems to give in. An atypical Spanish player, Carreno Busta’s greatest moments have come on hardcourts. The two-time US Open semi-finalist is also a semi-finalist at both Indian Wells and Miami. This year he has reverted to a more stereotypical Spanish mode, winning two titles on clay prior to his brilliance in Tokyo. Busta knows how to beat Medvedev and he will be keen to keep this unbelievable run going.
Verdict: Medvedev in straight sets at 62/100
Medvedev leads their tight head-to-head record 3-2. That being said, Carreno Busta has picked up two significant hardcourt victories in that series (he won in Tokyo this year as well as Indian Wells in 2018). Carreno Busta is one of the few guys who seems to be able to absorb Medvedev’s relentless groundstrokes. There’s almost a masochistic dimension to the way he wears players down. I just think that Medvedev will be primed for vengeance after that Tokyo shock. Medvedev to win in straight sets for me at 62/100.
Casper Rudd 11/4 | Alex Zverev 26/100
It’s hard to really quantify Casper Rudd’s form this season. On the surface it’s incredible. He has won four titles and reached two Masters 1000 semi-finals. That’s quantitative proof of progression. But much of that success has come in fairly low-key clay-court affairs (the likes of which Nick Kyrgios recently bemoaned). The Norwegian went into the Olympics having won three consecutive European clay-court titles. But those titles are so humdrum as to be almost non-existent. You can kind of understand what Kyrgios is getting at in condemning the amount of tennis tournaments (I find myself agreeing with that lunatic more and more these days). Nevertheless, the rise of Rudd has been startling. He showed some hardcourt improvement at the Olympics in a decent quarterfinal run. He registered his 100th career ATP victory in his opening round win here against giant Reilly Opelka. I feel like that victory carried some weight. To extinguish such a huge-serving behemoth on a hard surface shows definite maturation. He then brushed aside fellow clay-court afficionado Diego Schwartzman with relative ease. Could this be a turning point for a man seemingly typecast as the gritty clay-court pugilist?
Who would have thought it would take seven attempts for Alex Zverev to register his maiden Cincinnati win? But the recent Olympic champion seems to be emboldened by that beautiful golden trinket. He fired 11 aces past the South African and won a crazy 82% of his total service points. He was even more ruthless against clay-court journeyman Guido Pella, dropping just five games in a straightforward victory. Zverev has hardened on court over the past year (perhaps partially a result of all the assault accusations). But there is certainly more focus and determination in his game- highlighted by his vastly improved serve. Last year’s US Open finalist has become laser-focused and will prove tough to stop this week.
Verdict: Zverev in straight sets at 8/10
You One thing that could work to Rudd’s advantage is unfamiliarity: this will be the first-ever meeting between these two. Otherwise, it’s all seemingly going in one direction here. Zverev has won nine straight games and Rudd has very little hardcourt pedigree. The best to hope for (value-wise) is a jittery ‘I don’t know this guy’ three-sets win for Zverev. But I think Zverev is at a different level now and I can only see a straight sets Zverev victory at 5/6. I’m sorry for being unimaginative with these.
