Damien Kayat looks at selected round of 32 matches from the 2021 Rogers Cup featuring Ugo Humbert vs Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafa Nadal vs Lloyd Harris.
2021 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Rogers Cup
Aviva Centre, Toronto, Canada (Hard Outdoor)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 11th August
Ugo Humbert 47/20 | Stefanos Tsitsipas 31/100
This has actually been a fairly disappointing campaign for promising 23-year-old Frenchman Ugo Humbert. His hardcourt credentials were firmly underlined in a breakthrough 2020 season. He won titles in Adelaide and Antwerp and he also reached the Masters 1000 quarterfinals in Paris (more on that later). But his record in 2021 stands at a middling 19-15. He has only recently managed to steer the ship in a positive direction after a disastrous clay-court run. But he did manage to pick up his 3rd ATP title with a giant-killing run in Halle: he beat the likes of Andrey Rublev and Alex Zverev en route to the title. But he seems to have found his feet on the hardcourts, almost getting himself into medal contention with a quarterfinal run at the Tokyo Olympics. Humbert just sauntered past the dangerous Lorenzo Sonego despite not playing his greatest tennis (he served six double points in that match). But he did manage to win an impressive 87% of his first serve points.
Stefanos Tsitsipas just hasn’t been the same since that remarkable run to the Roland Garros Final. He was humiliated in the opening round of Wimbledon and then he underperformed in Tokyo. Despite that, the Greek star is still one of the preeminent talents in men’s tennis. He is also an established hardcourt threat. The former ATP Finals champion reached his 2nd Aussie Open semi-final earlier this year. Coming back from two sets down against Nadal in Melbourne felt like a watershed moment for the Greek. He also finished runner-up in Acapulco and reached the semi-finals in Rotterdam. He has just climbed to a career-high 3rd in the ATP Rankings. He will be looking for a strong North-American hardcourt swing to crown a successful 2021.
Verdict: Humbert to win at 47/20
Interestingly, Ugo Humbert actually leads the head-to-head with Tsitsipas 2-0. He won their first match in last year’s Paris Masters. And he recently added to that head-to-head tally with a victory in Tokyo. There’s something about that big lefty serve that just seems to unsettle the Greek. That’s the reason I give him the edge this week. Tsitsipas has looked jaded of late and Humbert served brilliantly in his opening match against Sonego.
Rafa Nadal 26/100 | Llyod Harris 26/10
The tennis gods have seen it fit to allow Rafa a chance for swift retribution this week. His defeat against the South African in Washington was pretty incredible, especially after the Spaniard dominated the 2nd set. Does it add further credence to the notion that Rafa may be on the way to becoming a spent force? I think that’s a tad pre-emptive. He has already won two titles on his beloved clay earlier this year. But he is yet to reach a Grand Slam Final since winning last year’s French Open. His withdrawal from Wimbledon and the Olympics seem to suggest that he has gone all-in on Flushing Meadows this year. He will be hoping for a much more positive showing this week (he is a five-time Roger’s Cup Champion, after all). Nadal will likely look to be slightly more aggressive against Harris this week.
Harris’ victory over Nadal really came out of nowhere. He had only reached one quarterfinal since his remarkable run in Dubai earlier this year. But he was tactically brilliant against Nadal, attacking his body and backhand consistently with his second serve. That match seemed to take all the vitality out of him and he lost easily to Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals. But Harris has proved himself to be a capable hardcourt player. He reached his first ATP final in Adelaide last year. But it was his run in Dubai earlier this season that really brought him to the attention of the world. He beat the likes of Thiem and Shapovalov en route to that final. But the lanky South African seemed to fall off a cliff in the aftermath of that result. With that big serve and forehand, he should prove more consistent on these North American hardcourts.
Verdict: Nadal in straight sets at 15/20
This will be just their second meeting after last week’s monumental upset victory for Harris. Nadal will obviously look to be more assertive and heal his bruised pride. Nadal should cruise to a straight-sets victory.
