Damien Kayat previews selected ATP Tour Monte-Carlo Masters Round of 32 matches at the Monte-Carlo Country Club.
2022 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Monte-Carlo Masters
Monte Carlo Country Club (Outdoor Clay-court)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 13th April
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (8) (24/100) vs Seb Korda (3/1)
The hottest thing in men’s tennis, Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is riding the crest of a pretty significant wave right now. The 18-year-old Spanish phenom is currently 17-2 for the year. He won his maiden ATP 500 title in Rio before his magnificent Masters 1000 triumph in Miami. Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero- himself a former World Number One- needs to keep his prime asset’s feet on the ground. Garfia is almost an amalgamation of the so-called ‘Big Three’.
He has Nadal’s ferocity and footwork. But he also has the explosive forehand of Federer and the returning prowess of Djokovic. Be that as it may, he is still to win a big title on clay. His first two titles came on this surface. But you can’t really compare the Umag Open and Rio Open with these Masters 1000 events. But his outrageous movement and power surely make it just a matter of time until he becomes one of the premier clay-courters.
21-year-old American Seb Korda has endured a pretty frustrating 2022. He had a very encouraging 2021 that saw him break into the world’s top 40. He reached his maiden Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Miami and won his maiden ATP title in Parma.
In fact, his victory in last year’s Emilia-Romagna Open made him the first American since Sam Querrey in 2010 to win a clay-court event on European soil. This actually continued a trend of decent clay-court form for the gangly Korda (he reached the 4th round of the 2020 French Open as a qualifier). But he just hasn’t been quite been able to stich it all together this year. But he will be encouraged by his maiden outing at the Monte-Carlo Masters.
He was made to work hard against World Number 41 Botic van de Zandschulp, saving a set point in the first before grinding out a straight-sets victory. It improved his year-to-date record to 8-5.
The Verdict: Alcaraz Garfia to win in three at 26/10- This will be their first meeting on the tour proper. But Alcaraz Garfia did get the better of Korda in the final of last year’s NextGen Finals in Milan. To be fair, that event is played on indoor hardcourts (which obviously suits the Spaniard). I think that Korda will make a real game out of this.
He is a crafty clay-court player who can actually use Alcaraz’s power against him. But I ultimately see the Spaniard figuring the American out over three sets.
Pablo Carreno Busta (13) (23/100) vs Alexander Bublik (3/1)
This match represents a real clash of tennis sensibilities. A perennial presence in the world’s top 20, Pablo Carreno Busta is a true pro who has eked out a highly successful career without becoming a household name. An atypical Spanish player, Carreno Busta has achieved most of his notable success on harder surfaces.
He is a two-time US Open semi-finalist who won the bronze medal on Japanese hardcourts during last year’s Olympic Games. He is coming off a pretty fruitful year on clay (he won both the Andalucia and Hamburg Open in 2021). But his 2022 has been erratic since his excellent showing in the ATP Cup (he went 4-1 in that team competition). He was 5-5 post-ATP Cup coming into this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters.
He wasn’t at his best in his opening match, needing three sets to overcome promising clay-court player Sebastian Baez. But Carreno Busta is a consummate pro who will only grow as the week progresses.
Then in the opposite corner you have Alex Bublik. Often compared to Nick Kyrgios, the Kazakhstan enigma is oft criticized for lapses in professionalism. He doesn’t love the sport and even throws in the odd nonchalant underarm serve. But he does possess a cannon of a serve that allows him to compete with anybody.
He actually led the 2021 ATP Tour for aces served. Nominally a hardcourt specialist, Bublik saw off former Monte-Carlo champ Stan Wawrinka in three exhilarating sets. He grew into the match as it went along, starting to move inside the baseline and finish points at the net.
His booming serves and groundstrokes dragged Wawrinka from pillar to post. Bublik is quite imaginative and may be able to take Carreno Busta out of his baseline-orientated comfort zone.
The Verdict: Bublik to win at 3/1- Carreno Busta leads the head-to-head with Bublik 2-0. Having said that, their last meeting came back in 2019. Furthermore, both of their matches went all the way to three sets. I just can’t turn down the value for Bublik at 3/1. He has a mammoth serve that can make a mockery out of form.
He also managed to withstand Wawrinka’s big comeback and grew into the match. He won in Montpelier this year- beating top seed Alex Zverev in the final. He can pull off an upset here (especially at this price).
