Damien Kayat previews Casper Rudd vs Francisco Cerundolo and Danil Medvedev vs Yannick Hanfmann in the selected quarter-final matches of the Italian Open, on the 17th and 18th of May 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarter-finals – 17th-18th May
17th May
Casper Rudd 63/100 | Francisco Cerundolo 12/10
This should prove to be a brutal encounter between two quintessential clay-court specialists. Norwegian Casper Rudd is coming off a stunning 2022 that saw him reach Grand Slam finals in Paris and New York.
He really evolved in all facets last year, suddenly becoming one of the most dominant forces on harder surfaces (he lost to Djokovic in the season-ending ATP Finals). But he has failed to really press home that evolution in 2023.
He came into the European clay-court swing with a disappointing 5-6 record for the year. He then won the title in Estoril only to regress in his next three-clay-court tournaments. But the hard-hitting Norwegian seems to have found something resembling his best form on these Rome clay-courts.
He will be looking to make it three Rome semi-finals in succession with victory over Cerundolo. And he is arguably coming off his most dismissive performance of the season, needing only 70 minutes to dismantle a despairing Laslo Djere. He has only dropped one set this week and seems to be finding some form at the perfect time of the season.
24-year-old Argentine Francisco Cerundolo is taking the ironman approach at this year’s Italian Open, coming back from a set down in each of his three matches thus far. This included a stunning comeback against hipster darling Jannik Sinner.
But will these exacting three-set slugfests take a toll on the beleaguered Cerundolo? An avowed clay-court specialist, Cerundolo has largely failed to build on his solid 2022 campaign. Last year he reached two ATP 500 semi-finals on clay and a Masters 1000 semi in Miami.
He has struggled to come to life this year after a decent 3rd round run at the Aussie Open. He never made a semi-final during the South American clay-court swing (which is generally his wheelhouse). Quarterfinals in Miami and Barcelona hinted at his undoubted ability.
He will be looking to make his 2nd Masters 1000 semi-final with victory over Rudd. Cerundolo has truly had to draw on all his grit and defensive acumen to survive this week. But he will be drawing a huge amount of confidence from a head-to-head advantage over his more illustrious opponent.
Verdict: Rudd to win in straight sets – 15/10
Cerdundolo actually leads the head-to-head 2-1 (2-0 on clay). This included a straight-sets victory at this year’s Barcelona Open. I just think he may start to feel the physical toll against arch-baseliner Rudd.
Rudd is starting to find his groove after a fairly flat start to the year. I think he will be feeling pretty comfy ahead of this year’s French Open.
18th May
Danil Medvedev 2/10 | Yannick Hanfmann 51/20
Danil Medvedev has overtaken Carlos Alcaraz in the live Race to Turin standings, registering a tour-leading 36th win of the season against Alex Zverev. It was a consummate defensive performance from the Russian as he absorbed the big-serving German’s best blows and came out on top.
This week has marked a significant week in the clay-court career of Medvedev. He had never won a match in Rome in three previous visits. Now he stands on the brink of reaching just his 2nd career Masters 1000 semi-final on clay (he reached the semi-finals at the 2019 Monte-Carlo Masters). This is obviously by no means his favored surface.
But the Russian would probably be competitive on tar in this current vein of form. He has the capacity to become a true great if he can harness his somewhat volatile nature. Next up for Danil Medvedev is going to be the surprise package of this year’s Italian Open: Yannick Hanfmann.
This has proven to be a slightly topsy-turvy year on the ATP Tour. We have become accustomed to crazy shocks in the women’s draw. But Yannick Hanfmann’s quarterfinal run makes this the 4th consecutive Masters 1000 event in which a qualifier or lucky loser has reached the final eight.
Hanfmann has now won six consecutive matches at the Foro Italico. And this last victory against Andrey Rublev was undoubtedly the performance of his career. Both of his career ATP Finals have come on clay (at the 2017 Swiss Open and 2020 Austrian Open).
The 31-year-old German journeyman is truly breaking new ground this week. This is the first time in his career that he has reached a quarterfinal of any event bigger than a 250. Victories over Fritz and Rublev will have him believing he can beat anyone.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in three – 54/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two (the likes of Hanfmann seldom get the chance to rub shoulders with a Medvedev). I think Hanfmann will obviously be free-rolling here. But that arduous three-set win against Rublev will leave a mark.
Also, Medvedev is a cannier operator than either Rublev or Fritz. He can change the pace and make things awkward for the German. Still, there could be some value in backing the three-set Medvedev win. The Russian can switch off when he comes up against unfancied opposition.
