Daniil Medvedev faces Jiri Lehecka in teh quarter-finals and Andrey Rublev squares off against Taylor Fritz in the semi-finals of the ATP Tour’s Madrid Open.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica
Selected Quarter-Final and Semi-Final – 2-3 May 2024
Quarter-Final- 2 May
Daniil Medvedev 53/100 Jiri Lehecka 29/20
With Djokovic absent and Sinner and Alcaraz out, Daniil Medvedev has a surprising opportunity to actually make up some ranking points on his least preferred surface.
The surly Russian has enjoyed a typically consistent season (though he is still yet to win a title). He followed up that heartbreaking Aussie Open final capitulation with three consecutive semi-final appearances (including a runner-up finish at Indian Wells).
I think it’s fair to say that Medvedev has improved dramatically on clay over the past few seasons. He won his first clay-court title at last year’s Rome Masters. Sure, he would then succumb to a pretty embarrassing first-round Roland Garros exit to Seyboth Wild.
But his French Open form has been solid up until last season (he reached the quarters in 2021 and the fourth round in 2022). The higher altitude here allows him to get more purchase from his tremendous groundstrokes. Having said that, he hasn’t looked at his vintage best in Madrid, needing three sets against Arnaldi and Korda.
22-year-old Jiri Lehecka- along with the likes of Tomas Machac and Jakub Mensik- finds himself at the vanguard of an exciting new era in for Czech tennis. And he just pulled off the biggest win of his career, calmly seeing off Rafa Nadal in what was likely the Spanish legend’s final match on home soil.
A weary Nadal just couldn’t find any answers to Lehecka’s excellent serving (the Czech averaged a stunning 217 kph on his first-serve throughout the match). Could this be the week where Lehecka finally breaks through into the public consciousness?
He started this year in brilliant fashion, winning his maiden career title at the Adelaide International. He enjoyed his previous best Masters 1000 run at Indian Wells, beating the likes of Rublev and Tsitsipas en route to his first Masters 1000 quarter-final.
That was a significant result when you consider the really slow nature of those Indian Wells courts. Lehecka is just a really solid all-round player and he can’t be underestimated.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in three 11/4
Medvedev leads the head-to-head 1-0. Last season, Lehekca was forced to withdraw from their Wimbledon clash whilst trailing by two sets. This isn’t going to be easy for Medvedev.
Lehecka hasn’t dropped a set this week and he showed against Nadal that he is extremely comfortable hanging far back in the court. Medvedev has played in spurts and may need to elevate his game against the Czech youngster. Still, I think the Russan ironman will find it in him to somehow prevail in three.
Semi-Final – 3 May
Andrey Rublev 6/10 | Taylor Fritz 5/4
This is certainly a semi-final that wasn’t on the cards. Andrey Rublev just picked up the biggest win of his season (and possibly career), taking down two-time defending Madrid Open champion Carlos Alcaraz in three sets.
It was a huge body-blow for the Spanish faithful after Lehecka’s triumph over Nadal. Rublev rallied back from a set down, putting to bed those feelings on inadequacy that have dogged him over the last few years.
Lest we forget, Rublev came into this event in absolutely dreadful from (he had lost four consecutive tour-level matches). But the 15-time ATP Tour winner has found something on these relatively quick clay surfaces.
And he served magnificently against Alcaraz, making 74% of his first-serves throughout the match. He often stepped inside the baseline to finish off points, hitting an astonishing 30 winners against the swashbuckling Spaniard. He is aiming to secure his second Masters crown after claiming a maiden title at last year’s Monte-Carlo Masters.
Taylor Fritz secured his first Masters semi-final of the season with a hard-fought win over clay-court specialist Cerundolo. The victory also saw the American register his 250th ATP Tour victory. He really needed his serve to come to the rescue against a really competitive Cerundolo.
The Argentine was hitting that backhand well and purposefully kept the ball away from Fritz’s forehand wing. But the American pounced at the right moment in the third set and now he is in the hunt for a second Masters crown (he won the 2022 Indian Wells title).
This has been quite a breakthrough clay-court campaign for the big-serving American. He reached a final in Munich last month and this week presents him with another opportunity to seize a maiden clay-court title.
Verdict: Rublev to win in straight sets 15/10
Fritz actually owns an impressive 5-3 head-to-head record over the Russian. In fact, the American has actually won four of their last five encounters.
Having said that, it was the Russian who emerged victorious in their lone clay-court meeting, outdueling Fritz in three sets in last year’s Monte-Carlo semi-finals. I just think that the Alcaraz victory is impossible to ignore. The Russan was outstanding while Fritz has to increasingly lean on his serve against Cerundolo.
