The US Open continues as Grigor Dimitrov faces Frances Tiafoe while Alex de Minaur goes up against Jack Draper in the quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour
US Open
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
Selected QF Matches
4 September 2024
Grigor Dimitrov 6/10 | Frances Tiafoe 13/10
Grigor Dimitrov has enjoyed a remarkable career renaissance these past 18 months or so, returning to the top ten in the world after years of diminishing returns. This year’s success has been built on strong hardcourt form.
He won his 9th career title in Brisbane (his first career title since 2017). He reached his second final of the season in Marseille (finishing runner-up to local hero Ugo Humbert). But it was in Miami where he really underlined his quality, picking up back-to-back top-five wins en route to a runner-up finish.
He defied expectations with a quarterfinal run at Roland Garros, but he was forced to withdraw from his Wimbledon 4th round clash due to injury. He looked unconvincing during the US Open precursors but has looked back to his best in New York.
He won his first three matches in straight sets before an epic five-set duel with Andrey Rublev (who imploded in typical Rublev fashion). Dimitrov served efficiently, hitting 17 aces and winning 81% of his first-serve points.
But he did serve 12 double faults, and he may need to shore up in that department. His net play was fantastic against Rublev (he won 75% of his forays into the forecourt). A semifinalist here back in 2019, Dimitrov looks as determined as ever to reach an elusive Grand Slam final.
Frances Tiafoe showed excellent grit to eliminate giant-killer Alexei Popyrin, hitting 14 aces and winning 77% of his first-serve points to reach his 3rd consecutive US Open quarterfinal (he reached the semis back in 2022).
In fact, Tiafoe’s victory over Popyrin made him just the 4th American this century to reach three US Open quarterfinals (after Sampras, Agassi and Roddick). Tiafoe- by his own admission- had a very poor start to the season, toiling against lower-ranked opponents.
But he really clicked into gear in his stunning Cincinnati run, beating the likes of Hurkacz and Rune en route to a runner-up finish (which also was his first appearance in a Masters 1000 final).
Tiafoe avenged last year’s quarterfinal defeat to Ben Shelton, coming back from two sets to one down in a pulsating 3rd round clash. He was particularly ruthless against Popyrin, only serving one double fault in a professional outing.
The Verdict: Tiafoe to win in four sets 46/10
Dimitrov leads the head-to-head 3-1, comfortably winning their most recent encounter at last year’s Wimbledon Championships. Tiafoe produced some eye-catching tennis in the 2nd half of that Popyrin match while Dimitrov produced 67 unforced errors against Rublev.
I also think that the 33-year-old Bulgarian could feel the pinch as we approach the latter parts of this match (that five-set match against Rublev must have been exhausting).
Alex de Minaur 72/100 | Jack Draper 97/100
Alex de Minaur outlasted Jordan Thompson in the first all-Aussie 4th round clash at the US Open since 1993. It was a typically pugnacious showing from the ‘Speed Demon’. He just ran Thompson into the ground, picking up his 3rd four-set win in this year’s tournament.
He won 79% of his first-serve points and hit 31 winners to 26 unforced errors. De Minaur has to be the most improved player over the last two years (Sinner excluded), reaching seven finals since the start of 2023. More importantly, de Minaur finally seems to have cracked the Grand Slam code (to some degree).
This will be his 3rd successive Grand Slam quarterfinal- he was heartbreakingly forced to withdraw ahead of his Wimbledon quarterfinal clash due to a hip injury. I doubted the Aussie’s chances this year, thinking that he lacks the one big weapon that can guide you to a Grand Slam title.
But the sweltering New York conditions have helped to highlight de Minaur’s best asset: his athleticism. The Aussie can be almost sadistic in the way he grinds opponents down and these conditions suit that to a tee.
Wow. Jack Draper just produced arguably the performance of his career, dismantling Thomas Machac 6-3, 6-1, 6-2 to reach his first Grand Slam quarterfinal. Draper was involved in the most controversial moment of the season in Cincinnati, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime despite obviously volleying the ball into the ground on match point.
There was a part of me that thought the fallout of that incident- which became a bit of a social media sensation- would overshadow his US Open preparations. But the British lefty has looked absolutely devastating this fortnight, not dropping a set in any of his previous matches. Draper had lost all three previous encounters with Machac.
But he absolutely outclassed Machac this time around, hitting 36 winners to 26 unforced errors in an extremely composed showing. He remained aggressive throughout, hitting 11 aces and winning 78% of his first-serve points.
The Verdict: Draper to win in four 42/10
De Minaur leads the head-to-head 3-0, winning their previous meeting dramatically at this year’s Mexican Open. The two were involved in a tense semifinal clash but illness forced Draper to withdraw while trailing 4-0 in the deciding set.
Draper just looks a different proposition this fortnight. He is playing ultra-aggressive tennis, and his serve will earn him far more cheap points than de Minaur’s.
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