The US Open continues as Jannik Sinner faces Tommy Paul while Alex Zverev goes up against Taylor Fritz in the round of 16 and quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour
US Open
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre
Selected Round of 16 and QF Matches
3 September 2024
Round of 16
Jannik Sinner 2/13 | Tommy Paul 44/10
Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have both suffered shock eliminations, leaving him as the undisputed favourite to lift his 2nd Grand Slam title. He won his maiden Grand Slam title at this year’s Aussie Open and he has won a further four titles this season (including in Cincinnati just prior to this event).
And he just seems to be getting better and better this fortnight. He dropped his first set of the tournament against Mackenzie McDonald. But that seems to have been exactly the motivation he needed and he has only dropped 18 games in his subsequent nine sets. And he was sensational against O’Connell, hitting 46 winners to just 22 unforced errors. Sinner is now 13-5 at Flushing Meadows, reaching the quarterfinals back in 2022.
This has been a really consistent season for American all-court talent Tommy Paul. He won in Dallas and followed that up with a runner-up finish in Delray Beach. He then showed brilliant Masters 1000 form, reaching the semifinals in Indian Wells and Rome. He won at Queens and then reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Paul is a versatile, solid player who seems to be growing with every year.
Having said that, the 2023 Aussie Open semifinalist came into this event in pretty subdued form, losing to Nakashima in Montreal and Cobolli in Cincinnati. And he hasn’t been entirely convincing in New York, needing four sets to overcome both Sonego and Diallo. But he has still managed to grind his way to victories. He is an absolutely brilliant player on return, winning almost 50% of all his return points in New York. If he can get that first-serve percentage up he will really have half a chance here.
The Verdict: Sinner to win in four sets 97/100
Sinner leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning in straight sets in their most recent meeting at last year’s National Bank Open.
As I noted above, Paul is a brilliant returner and he could disrupt Sinner’s serving rhythm. Paul will need to be aggressive and approach the net as often as possible. I still think that Sinner will prevail but Paul is certainly good enough to nick a set.
Quarterfinal
Alex Zverev 62/100 | Taylor Fritz 5/4
This has the potential to be an absolute classic. Alex Zverev will be out for revenge this week, as the American came back from two sets down to win their Wimbledon 4th round match a few months ago. The match was riddled (see what I did there) with drama, as Zverev felt like he was being unfairly persecuted by Fritz’s girlfriend (Morgan Riddle) and her entourage. With Alcaraz and Djokovic eliminated, this looks like it could represent Zverev’s best chance of finally claiming his maiden slam.
The German has suffered some heartbreaking Grand Slam defeats this season. He surrendered a two-set lead to Sinner in his Aussie Open semifinal and he also loss a five-setter to Alcaraz in thee French Open final (not to mention the Fritz drama at Wimbledon). He reached the semifinals in Cincinnati and he has looked really impressive in New York. He dropped the first set in his 4th round match against Nakashima but he roared back to win impressively, smashing 51 winners in a really complete performance. The 2020 runner-up has reached the quarterfinal stage four times and he will go into this as a favourite.
Can Taylor Fritz break his Grand Slam quarterfinal curse (we already have one Andrey Rublev)? The American has now reached six Grand Slam quarterfinals (and a 2nd successive US Open quarter). This has been a solid season for the big-serving American. He won a title in Delray, and this will be his 3rd Grand Slam quarterfinal of the year.
He also managed to reach his first ever clay-court final, losing to Struff in the Munich final. He- like Zverev- had to come back from a set down overpower 4th round opponent Casper Rudd. He served tremendously throughout the match, winning 84% of his first-serve points and firing an impressive 24 aces. In total, he hit 56 winners to just 36 unforced errors in a really commanding showing. His big serve and forehand are lethal weapons and he has also been putting in excellent work on his volleying.
The Verdict: Fritz to win in five
Zverev holds a slender 5-4 head-to-head advantage over the American (obviously losing in dramatic style at Wimbledon).
I know that Zverev was slightly injured in the latter stages of that match and he seems to play incredible tennis at the moment. But there’s still a part of me that thinks Fritz could surprise the German again. He will receive delirious home support and Zverev has been known to capitulate on such occasions.
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