David Goffin 48/100 | Adrian Mannarino 16/10
33-year-old Belgian David Goffin is having a bit of a mini-renaissance. The former World No.7 finished last year ranked outside the top 100 in the world for the first time in a decade. And this season has really been much of the same.
He won the Ilkay Challenger event but has struggled to gain any traction on the tour proper. His victory over Shapovalov in Atlanta was a little glimpse of his hardcourt potential. He then produced one of the more surprising results of the year, reaching the semifinals at last week’s Winston-Salem Open.
And he seems to have carried that momentum into this year’s US Open, beating 22nd seed Alejandro Tabilo in a rousing opening victory. Goffin just looked revitalized against the younger opponent, hitting 45 winners to just 29 unforced errors in the straight-sets win.
Goffin reached the 4th round here in four consecutive seasons from 2017 to 2020. He is an offensive baseliner who looks to wear his opponents down (he doesn’t have that gargantuan weapon that can take the game away).
Few would have given Adrian Mannarino a chance of beating Borna Coric in straight sets. But the out-of-form Frenchman defied expectations, winning 80% of his first-serve points against the Croatian.
Mannarino was in desperate need of a positive start after what has been a challenging season. Lest we forget, Mannarino enjoyed his best-ever season last year, winning three titles and rising to 22 in the world rankings.
And he started this year in a similarly decisive manner, reaching the semifinals of the United Cup before an excellent 4th round run at the Aussie Open. Those results helped to catapult him to a career-high ranking of 17.
But the crafty counterpuncher has gone completely off the rails since then. He actually came into this tournament on a ten-match losing streak (he was 2-19 in his last 21 matches). He reached the 3rd round here last season and will look to emulate that with victory over Goffin.
The Verdict: Goffin to win in four sets 29/10
These two are familiar foes, with Goffin holding a 5-3 career advantage over the Frenchman. Having said that, Mannarino has won their two most recent encounters.
This is really a match for the purists. Expect plenty of long rallies, with neither player possessing major-league power. Goffin will be the natural aggressor while Mannarino will look to counterpunch. I think Goffin’s US Open pedigree and recent form gives him the edge here.
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