The Barcelona Open continues this week as Andrey Rublev faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina while Alex de Minaur goes up against Jacob Fearnley in the competition’s round of 16 stage. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP Tour – ATP 500
Barcelona Open
Real Club de Tenis Barcelona
Selected RO16 – 17 April
Andrey Rublev 91/100 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 86/100
This has been a strange old season for combustible Russian Andrey Rublev. He has been eliminated in the opening round of five events this year and brought a three-match losing streak into the European clay-court season.
He has just struggled to settle into his usual rhythm, padding his stats with a title-winning run in Qatar (the first time that he won the same event twice in his career).
He started off his clay-court campaign in middling fashion, beating Monfils before being trounced by Fils in Monte-Carlo. He got his Barcelona campaign off to a solid start, mauling Jesper de Jong 6-1, 6-3.
He was impressive from the back of the court, striking 23 winners to 16 unforced errors in a dominant display. Rublev has been an excellent clay-court exponent throughout his career, winning both of his Masters 1000 titles on the sticky stuff (Monte Carlo in 2023 and Madrid last year).
The slower clay conditions give him ample time to set up that sledgehammer forehand.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is enjoying a renaissance this season, improving to 19-9 for the year with his straightforward round of 32 win over veteran Stan Wawrinka.
Fokina’s athleticism and consistency was just too much for Wawrinka (who hit a stunning 30 unforced errors). Davidovich Fokina endured a tough 2024 campaign but looks revitalised this season, reaching the finals in Delray Beach and Acapulco.
The 2022 Monte-Carlo finalist once again impressed in the principality, reaching just his 3rd career Masters 1000 semifinal last week (losing to eventual champ Carlos Alcaraz in a keenly contested semi). He seems laser-focused this year, ready to finally fulfil his obvious potential.
An aggressive and entertaining player, Davidovich Fokina is celebrated for possessing one of the most versatile and destructive drop-shots in the men’s game.
The Verdict: Davidovich Fokina to win in three sets 34/10
Rublev has absolutely dominated this rivalry, comfortably leading the Spaniard 5-0 in their head-to-head meetings. This is Davidovich’s time to finally correct that alarming disparity.
The Spaniard is in superior form and is fresh off a statement semifinal run in Monte-Carlo. Rublev was blown away by Fils’ aggressive approach and could face a similar fate against the Spaniard.
Alex de Minaur 1/11 | Jacob Fearnley 6/1
The uber-consistent Alex de Minaur improved to 20-7 for the season with a scrappy straight-sets victory over Tomas Etcheverry. Both players struggled to get things going in the slow conditions, with de Minaur’s famed athleticism ultimately giving him the edge.
The world No.7 has been a bastion of consistency these last few years, reaching eight ATP Finals since the beginning of 2023 (and four consecutive Grand Slam quarters).
He enjoyed a solid start to the season, reaching the Aussie Open quarterfinals before a runner-up finish in Rotterdam. He went a bit quiet after that but roared back with an excellent semifinal run at last week’s Monte-Carlo Masters (his best clay-court Masters 1000 result to date).
De Minaur is yet to reach a clay-court final in his career. He tends to counterpunch quite often, preferring to redirect power. He has been working on creating more of his own power, and perhaps that attributed to this Monte-Carlo showing.
British No.2 Jacob Fearnley has already produced a PB this week, winning his first ATP Tour main draw match with a classy straight-sets win over Roberto Carballes Baena.
The Scot entered the main draw as a lucky loser and looked surprisingly comfortable against Carballes Baena, hitting 33 winners to the Spaniard’s 11. The 23-year-old has enjoyed a meteoric rise of late.
He was ranked outside the top 600 a year ago but won four ATP Challenger titles last year to sneak his way into the top 100 in the world rankings. A standout performer on the US collegiate scene, Fearnley looks to dominate on serve, using his whippy forehand to pummel opponents.
The Verdict: De Minaur to win in straight sets 3/10
This will be their first career meeting. There is no way to sugarcoat this: de Minaur should waltz past Fearnley. Fearnley’s aggressive style isn’t ideally suited to these surfaces.
His potent serve will be diminished, and the ‘Speed Demon’ should be able to easily dictate proceedings from the back of the court.
