The Bavarian International Tennis Championships continues this week as Denis Shapovalov faces Gael Monfils while Ugo Humbert goes up against Nicolas Jarry in the competition’s round of 32 stage. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP Tour – ATP 500
Bavarian International Tennis Championships
MTTC Iphitos
Selected RO32 – 15 April
Denis Shapovalov 78/100 | Gael Monfils 1/1
This promises to be a tantalizing round of 32 clash. 8th seed Denis Shapovalov has had a real rollercoaster of a campaign. He started in ordinary fashion, failing to win back-to-back matches in each of his first three tournaments (the Aussie Open included).
But he roared back to relevance in Dallas, beating three top-ten players to claim his 3rd career title (and first ATP 500 crown). He backed that up with a semifinal run in Acapulco but has struggled since, underwhelming during the ‘Sunshine Double’ before losing his maiden clay-court match of the season in Monte-Carlo.
The hard-hitting Canadian plays a brand of first-strike tennis that isn’t entirely conducive to the vagaries of clay (he is yet to win a clay-court title, and Roland Garros is the only slam where he has never progressed beyond the 3rd round).
Having said that, he has produced some eye-catching performances in Masters 1000 clay-court events, previously reaching the semifinals in Madrid and Rome.
38-year-old Gael Monfils isn’t quietly riding off into the sunset just yet. The charismatic Frenchman is 14-5 for the season, revelling in a more streamlined approach to the game.
Monfils is playing far more aggressively on serve this year, looking to avoid the type of convoluted rallies he was renowned for in his pomp. He started the year in historic fashion, winning in Auckland to become the oldest winner on tour since Ken Rosewall in 1977.
He performed admirably at the Aussie Open, withdrawing through injury during a tight 4th round tussle with Ben Shelton. He has faded slightly since those highs (though he did go 5-2 during the ‘Sunshine Double’).
He was beaten by Rublev in straight sets in Monte-Carlo. A renowned clay-court player in his prime, I think that Monfils is perhaps not best suited to these surfaces anymore (particularly on clay as slow as this).
Monfils hasn’t reached a clay-court final since 2016, but he does have the innate ability to defy expectations.
The Verdict: Monfils to win in straight sets 23/10
Monfils leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning their most recent encounter in straight sets at last year’s Rotterdam Open. This will be their maiden clay-court clash.
This should be a fascinating encounter, with both players looking to take the upper hand with their ferocious forehands. Shapovalov has been extremely inconsistent this year, and I think he will get frustrated by these slow conditions.
Ugo Humbert 69/100 | Nicolas Jarry 11/10
4th seed Ugo Humbert has enjoyed an excellent 18 months or so, reaching five finals since February last year (winning three of them).
The big-serving lefty reached the biggest final of his career towards the end of last season, finishing runner-up in front of adoring fans at the Paris Masters.
He has already won a title this year, defending his Open 13 crown (again in front of his Gallic brethren). He has had his struggles since then, going 2-4 in his four subsequent tournaments.
In fact, he comes into this match on a three-match losing streak, going down to Alexei Popyrin in three sets at last week’s Monte-Carlo Masters. That defeat took Humbert’s terrible ATP Tour clay-court record to 14-31.
The big-serving guy loves quicker surfaces, looking to serve and volley when possible. Everything about his game is just poorly suited to the demands of clay.
On the other hand. Nicolas Jarry is a true clay-court aficionado. However, the 29-year-old Chilean is in a significant rut, going 1-6 in his last six outings. Jarry had been in a mini-renaissance these past 18 months or so, rising to a career-high ranking of 16 last year.
He loves the sticky stuff, reaching four clay-court finals these past two years. He produced the week of his life during last year’s clay-court campaign, going down to Alex Zverev in the Rome Masters final.
Jarry isn’t your usual clay-court specialist, employing a brand of aggressive first-strike tennis. But he has really struggled this year, labouring to a 1-3 record during the South American clay-court swing. He will be hoping to turn his form around quickly (and may have found the perfect opponent with which to do it).
The Verdict: Jarry to win in straight sets 31/20
Humbert leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning their last meeting in three sets at the 2023 Basel Indoors. They have never met on clay, and this should present Jarry with the perfect opportunity to end his current drought.
Humbert looks lost in the dirt, and Jarry’s fearsome baseline hitting should be enough to subdue the Frenchman.
