The Indian Wells Open continues this week as Jiri Lehecka faces Cameron Norrie as Karen Khachanov goes up against Jakub Mensik in the competition’s round of 64. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Selected RO64 – 7-8 March
7th March
Jiri Lehecka 53/100 | Cameron Norrie 29/20
Jiri Lehecka will be disappointed with the way he was blasted off the court by Ugo Humbert in Dubai. Still, the Czech has enjoyed an excellent start to the season, bringing a 13-4 record into this year’s Indian Wells Masters.
The 23-year-old Czech really broke through last season, winning in Adelaide before a brilliant semifinal run at the Madrid Masters. He unfortunately had to withdraw from his Madrid Masters semi due to a back injury.
The injury would ultimately force him to miss four months of action (just when he was getting into the swing of things). Still, he would pick up another runner-up towards the end of the season. He just carried that momentum right into 2025, winning in Brisbane before running into Djokovic in the 4th round of the Aussie Open.
He reached another semifinal in Qatar and looks prepped for a great season. Lehecka is an aggressive baseline player with excellent movement and strategic thinking (little wonder he reached the quarterfinals here last season).
Cameron Norrie gave arguably his most complete performance of the season in his Indian Wells opener, defying windy conditions to beat Luca Nardi, Djokovic’s conqueror last year, 6-0, 6-3. The pugnacious Brit showed exactly why he has thrived here in the past, hitting 21 winners to just 14 unforced errors (excellent considering the conditions).
The Brit won the biggest title of his career here in 2021 and has reached the quarterfinal stage or better in three of his last four visits. However, Norrie isn’t quite the same player he was two or three years back. The counterpunching Brit began to steadily fall down the rankings over the last 18 months or so.
I personally think he burnt himself out, playing too much tennis when he was in the zone. And he did end up having a serious injury towards the end of last season, missing the entirety of the North American hardcourt series due to a forearm issue. That break may have come at the perfect time, as he would end the season by reaching his 15th career final in Moselle.
He hasn’t been great this season, with only two minor quarterfinal runs to his name. But he specializes in these conditions and shouldn’t be underestimated.
The Verdict: Norrie to win in three sets 44/10
Norrie leads the head-to-head 2-1. However, Lehecka won their most recent meeting at the 2023 Aussie Open. Both players are well suited to Indian Wells conditions.
I have a feeling that we may see the best of Norrie this week. He looked exceptional in that opener, using that lefty serve out wide to take Nardi out of position. Still, this could be a seesaw affair, and I fully expect it to go all the way.
8th March
Karen Khachanov 81/100 | Jakub Mensik 97/100
This should be a fascinating rematch of last year’s Qatar Open final (won by Khachanov). Two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist Karen Khachanov is a prototypical modern hardcourt player, relying on a strong serve and powerful groundstrokes off both wings.
He does tend to lack variety at times and can become a tad one-dimensional. Still, he is a supreme athlete and when he is on, he is on. He won his 6th and 7th ATP Tour titles last year (in Qatar and Almaty).
He ended the year in encouraging fashion, winning the Almaty title before finishing runner-up in Vienna. He unfortunately hasn’t been able to transfer that late-year success into any type of form this year (he is 1-4 in his last five matches).
To be fair, he pushed Medvedev to three in Qatar before going down in three to Tsitsipas in Dubai (Tsitsipas would go on to win the Dubai title). So, his recent record is a bit misleading. He reached the quarters here back in 2019, backing that up with a 4th round run in 2020.
19-year-old Czech Jakub Mensik is really one for the future. He enjoyed a breakthrough 2024 campaign, reaching a maiden tour-level final in Qatar before a quarterfinal run at the Shanghai Masters.
He was particularly impressive on those Shanghai hardcourts, taking down Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov with some no-nonsense hardcourt tennis. He looked similarly adept in Australasia at the start of the year, reaching back-to-back quarterfinals in Brisbane and Auckland before a 3rd round run at the Aussie Open (where he inexplicably threw away a two-set lead against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina).
He underwhelmed in his next two outings but looked solid in his Indian Wells opener, seeing off the big-hitting Tomas Etcheverry 6-4, 7-6. It was an error-strewn contest, with both players having to adapt to the blustery conditions.
Still, Mensik would hit almost double the number of winners as his opponent (25 to 13). He was also decisive when it mattered, converting four of five break-point opportunities.
The Verdict: Khachanov to win in straight sets 31/10
Khachanov leads the head-to-head 1-0, overcoming the young Czech in straight sets in last year’s Doha final (though that first set tiebreak was epic). I think that Khachanov should have the experience to see off the youngster (especially if the conditions remain blustery).
Mensik loves quick surfaces and can become a bit impatient in stickier conditions. I expect Khachanov to play the percentage tennis, perhaps playing a little more on the counterattack.
