The Italian Open continues this week as Tommy Paul faces Hubert Hurkacz while Jasmine Paolini takes on Peyton Stearns in the quarter-final and semi-final stages. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP/WTA Tour – ATP/WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico
Selected QF/SF – 15 May
Masters 1000 – Quarter-final
Tommy Paul 9/20 | Hubert Hurkacz 17/10
Tommy Paul finally managed to overcome his nemesis, beating Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-3 for his first victory over the Aussie in six attempts.
Paul was made to wait ages for the match, with torrential rain and a hailstorm delaying the encounter for hours. It was a war of attrition, with two of the best athletes on tour grinding it out in painstakingly slow conditions.
The two players hit a combined total of 19 winners to 82 unforced errors. Paul just had more pop in his racquet, with de Minaur perhaps feeling the toll of what has already been an arduous campaign.
The versatile American is now 20-7 for the campaign. He showed his Grand Slam pedigree at the beginning of the season, reaching the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open. He will be aiming to reach his 4th semifinal of the year (and his 2nd on clay following Houston).
A semi-finalist here last season, Paul is once again lifting his intensity at the right moment in Rome.
Former World No.6 Hubert Hurkacz has been a real surprise package this fortnight. The big-hitting Pole has faced some major physical difficulties over the last year or so, contributing to a major rankings slide (he is currently ranked 31st in the live rankings).
He came into this event with little to no form, having not won back-to-back matches since his semifinal run in Rotterdam. The Pole enjoyed a kind early draw, taking down Martinez and Giron in his opening matches.
But he showed real class in his round of 16 encounter, taking down the red-hot Jakub Mensik in three testing sets. Hurkacz served well against the Czech bomber, crunching down 19 aces to Mensik’s 17. Hurkacz is a defensive baseliner who can swiftly switch to attack.
Though he has achieved most of his success on quicker surfaces, he enjoyed solid success on clay last year (he won his maiden clay-court title in Estoril and reached the quarterfinals here). How will his body hold up in the latter portion of this physically taxing tournament?
The Verdict: Paul to win in three 51/20
Tommy Paul leads the head-to-head 2-1. Their most recent meeting came on these very courts, with Paul edging a titanic quarterfinal clash last year. Hurkacz has the type of booming serve that can penetrate these sandpits (he has served 38 aces this fortnight).
I think that weapon could give him a chance. Still, Paul is looking ominous and should be able to withstand the Pole’s big-serving barrage.
WTA 1000 – Semi-final
Jasmine Paolini 9/20 | Peyton Stearns 17/10
Jasmine Paolini sent the home fans into raptures yesterday, coming from a set down to beat Diana Shnaider in one of the most topsy-turvy matches you are likely to see.
Paolini blew the first set after building a 4-0 lead. She then produced her own turnaround in the 2nd, coming from a 4-0 deficit to take the match to a decider.
She was broken early in the 3rd but managed to claw back the advantage, ultimately prevailing 6-7, 6-2, 6-4. As a result, Paolini became the first Italian woman to reach the semifinals here in 11 years (doubles partner Sara Errani was coincidentally the last semifinalist).
Paolini endured a slow start to her 2025 campaign but has come to life in the last few months, reaching the semifinals in three of her last four events. A two-time Grand Slam finalist last season, Paolini is just tailor-made for these slow Rome surfaces.
The French Open runner-up moves brilliantly and loves employing the slice. She also generates an insane amount of topspin on that forehand wing.
I’m still not entirely sure how a woman of her stature can generate as much power as she does on that forehand side.
Speaking of big forehands, American Peyton Stearns is riding a wave of positivity this fortnight. The 2022 NCAA Champ has been this year’s Houdini, winning her last three matches in 3rd-set tiebreaks.
In fact, her quarterfinal win over Svitolina made her the first player in the Open Era to win three successive matches in third-set tiebreaks.
And to think, she had never played on the Foro Italico prior to this year! To be fair, there were glimmers of this form in Madrid, where she beat three players before running into Sabalenka in the round of 16.
But she has found another level in Rome, using her tenacity and mighty forehand to overcome seemingly insurmountable situations. She was actually in the driving seat against Svitolina, leading 6-2, 4-2 before the nuggety Ukrainian mounted a comeback.
Stearns seemed to be struggling in the final set, trailing by a double-break in the early stages. But she somehow managed to produce more ironwoman heroics, prevailing 6-2, 4-6, 7-6.
The Verdict: Paolini to win in straight sets 1/1
This will be their first career meeting. Stearn’s resilience can’t hold out forever. Paolini is playing some amazing tennis at the moment, and I think her variety will take Stearns out of her comfort zone.
Also, Stearns has played three successive epics (which have probably felt even longer due to all the rain delays).
