The Italian Open continues this week as Alex de Minaur faces Tommy Paul while Elina Svitolina takes on Peyton Stearns in the round of 16 and quarter-final stages. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP Tour – ATP/WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico
Selected RO16/QFs – 14 May
Masters 1000 – Round of 16
Alex de Minaur 51/100 | Tommy Paul 15/10
This should be a great spectacle, as two of the most rally-resistant players go head-to-head on some of the slower surfaces you will see all year. ‘Speed Demon’ Alex de Minaur has come a long way these past 18 months or so.
The Aussie – who has reached four consecutive Grand Slam quarter-finals – has become an established member of the top ten. He improved to 26-9 for the year with a comfy straight-sets win over Hugo Dellien.
De Minaur has looked very composed on clay this year, reaching the semifinal in Monte-Carlo while performing admirably in Madrid and Barcelona.
De Minaur has always been noted for his physical attributes and defensive tenacity. But he has become much more aggressive these last 18 months, turning that forehand into much more of a weapon. His cross-court forehand has been particularly impressive during this clay-court swing.
Versatile American Tommy Paul had to draw on all his skill to see off Tomas Machac in their round of 16 clash, ultimately prevailing 6-3, 6-7, 6-4.
He served well on these notoriously slow surfaces, hitting seven aces and winning 77% of his first-serve points. He was impressive in the forecourt, winning 13 of 15 visits to the net. The result improved his 2025 record to a respectable 19-7.
He has reached the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open and has also reached semifinals in Adelaide, Dallas and Houston. Paul isn’t your standard American player who simply tries to brutalise the ball.
He is comfortable with extensive rallies and lives to utilise slices. He performed brilliantly here last year, reaching the semifinal stage. He will need to overcome a significant head-to-head disparity if he wishes to progress any further this year.
The Verdict: De Minaur to win in straight sets 28/10
De Minaur leads the head-to-head 5-0. Moreover, the Aussie beat the American in straight sets when they met on these surfaces in 2022. This is just a nightmare match for Paul.
De Minaur just does the things that Paul does, but a little better. His forehand is much stronger, and his return is more aggressive. In fact, only Carlos Alcaraz has a higher break percentage than de Minaur over the last 12 months.
WTA 1000 – Quarterfinal
Elina Svitolina 31/100 | Peyton Stearns 47/20
30-year-old Ukrainian baseliner Elina Svitolina is enjoying an extremely fruitful clay-court campaign. The former World No.3 started the year in encouraging fashion, going out to eventual champ Madison Keys in the Aussie Open quarters.
She struggled in the immediate aftermath of that result but has rediscovered her touch on clay, going 12-1 since the start of the European clay-court swing.
She won an 18th career title at the Open de Rouen and then went on to reach the Madrid quarterfinals. She has now made back-to-back WTA 1000 quarterfinals, dismissing Iga Swiatek’s conqueror Danielle Collins 6-4, 6-2. Svitolina struggled on serve against the American, landing just 51% of her first serves while coughing up five double-faults.
But she was brilliant from the back of the court, breaking the American five times in an exceptional counterpunching display. Svitolina- a two-time champion here- is almost tailor-made for these courts.
A defensive baseliner by nature, Svitolina is hard to break down on these sluggish surfaces. She has excellent footwork that allows her to turn defence into attack in an instant.
Hard-hitting American Peyton Stearns has her eyes set on a maiden WTA 1000 semifinal this week. The current World No.42 is on the brink of cracking the top 30 for the first time in her career.
She has come alive in these WTA 1000 clay-court events, going 7-1 since the start of the Madrid Open. She started this tournament in somewhat controversial fashion, castigating a chair umpire for exiting their seat to look at a line call (the umpires were instructed to never leave their chairs in Madrid).
In any event, she breezed past Brancaccio in her opener and hasn’t looked back since, taking out Kalinskaya before a huge comeback win over Aussie Open champ Madison Keys. She then showed plenty of heart in her round of clash, withstanding a spirited Naomi Osaka comeback to progress to the Rome quarters.
That victory made her the first woman in the Open Era to win back-to-back third-set tiebreaks in Rome. Stearns has moved well this week and will look to exploit Svitolina’s serving issues with that megawatt forehand.
The Verdict: Svitolina to win in three 31/10
This will be their first career meeting. This could be quite a tight affair. Stearns has the power in that forehand to destabilise the usually composed Svitolina. However, Svitolina has currently won more clay-court matches than anyone this season and Stearns has been in back-to-back wars.
I think Stearns will pose some early questions, but the Ukrainian should persevere in three.
