The Madrid Open continues this week as Alex Michelson faces Alexander Bublik while Lorenzo Sonego goes up against Miomir Kecmanovic in the competition’s round of 128 stage. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP Tour – ATP 100
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica
Selected RO128 – 23 April
Alex Michelson 77/100 | Alexander Bublik 1/1
Alex Michelson has managed to compile a tidy season up to this point, bringing a 13-9 record into this year’s Madrid Open. The young American was especially impressive in the earlier stages of the campaign, reaching the final 16 of the Aussie Open before a solid semifinal run in Delray Beach.
He started his clay-court campaign in encouraging fashion, reaching a 2nd career ATP Tour clay-court quarterfinal in Houston (where he was soundly beaten by Frances Tiafoe). Michelson has a potent serve, and his groundstrokes are getting stronger with every event.
However, he struggles for consistency and can veer in quality from game to game. He needs to learn a little more patience and become more rally-resistant if he wishes to become more competitive on clay.
That being said, Madrid is traditionally one of the quicker clay-courts out there and could give him some more purchase for his zippy groundstrokes (and serve).
Alexander Bublik is at serious risk of exiting the top 100 if he doesn’t get his act together. Lest we forget, he reached a career-high ranking of 17th just last May (having just reached the final in Dubai).
The mercurial Kazakh has been in dreadful form this year, bringing a 3-10 tour-level record into this event. He has looked even worse on the clay, losing in Monte-Carlo qualifying before a disappointing first-round exit in Munich.
Bublik has been a consistent presence in the minor ATP Tour events over the last few years, reaching nine finals since 2021. However, he is yet to reach a clay-court final in his entire career. Bublik plays a weird, detached form of first-strike tennis, leaning on a huge serve and erratic forehand.
He also loves to break the momentum of rallies by throwing in crazy drop-shots (not to mention some underarm serves). Oft criticised for his somewhat laissez-faire approach to the game, Bublik will need a minor miracle to turn his from around on the sticky stuff.
The Verdict: Michelson to win in straight sets 7/4
This will be their first career meeting. I really don’t see how Bublik is going to pick himself up for this. Michelson reached the quarterfinals in Houston last time out, and Bublik looks completely at sea right now.
Sure, Bublik does have the inalienable ability to turn it up out of nowhere (and he did reach the semifinals in Lyon last year). I just think that Michelson is maturing and should be able to force the Kazakh into a host of errors.
Lorenzo Sonego 13/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic 59/100
29-year-old Italian Lorenzo Sonego has endured a tough start to his clay-court campaign, facing first-round eliminations in Marrakesh and Monte-Carlo (he comes into this event on a three-match losing streak). Sonego has been generally quite poor this season, being eliminated in the first round of five events.
However, he produced the best Grand Slam result of his career in Melbourne, falling to Ben Shelton in his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance. He just hasn’t been able to build on that result. I see him as a slightly inferior version of fellow countryman Lorenzo Musetti.
He favours an all-court, finesse-based game and doesn’t mind finishing points off at the net. He has a solid serve and dynamic forehand and has done well on clay in the past, twice reaching the 4th round of the French Open while reaching the semifinals of the Rome Masters.
Solid baseliner Miomir Kecmanovic brings a decent 12-9 record into this year’s Madrid Masters (though most of his positive results came in the opening salvos of the season).
The Serb really started well this year, reaching the semifinals in Adelaide before a respectable 3rd round run in the Aussie Open. He then broke a three-year title drought, beating in-form Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina in the Delray Beach final.
He has cooled a bit since then and hasn’t looked at his best since the tour moved to clay. Miomir Kecmanovic is an aggressive baseliner who has performed well on clay in the past, winning the Austrian Open in 2020 and finishing runner-up at the 2023 Estoril Open.
He can generate formidable topspin on that forehand wing, but he needs to work on his consistency.
The Verdict: Sonego to win in three 4/1
This has been an intense head-to-head rivalry, with Sonego currently pipping Kecmanovic at three wins to two. Kecmanovic has won their only previous clay-court meeting, seeing off Sonego in straight sets at the 2022 Rio Open.
I think a three-set duel is likely given how well matched these guys are. I think I would probably fancy Sonego given Kecmanovic’s poor history in Masters 1000 clay-court events (he has never gone beyond the 3rd round of a Masters event on clay).
