PREVIEW: 2025 ATP Tour – Madrid Open – Selected RO16 matches

Alex de Minaur (6) 0.72 vs Lorenzo Musetti (10) 1.08

6^th seed Alex de Minaur will face in-form Lorenzo Musetti in this tantalizing round of 16 clash (a rematch of this year’s Monte-Carlo semifinals).  ‘Speed Demon’ Alex de Minaur has risen rapidly up the rankings these past few seasons, reaching the quarterfinals in his last four successive slams (he is yet to get past that Andrey Rublev-sized hurdle).  He has enjoyed a solid year, reaching the Aussie Open quarters before a runner-up finish at Rotterdam.  He then had an excellent start to his clay-court campaign, reaching the semifinals in Monte-Carlo before a quarterfinal run in Barcelona.  He has looked comfortable in Madrid, improving his 2025 clay-court record to 7-2 with straight-sets wins over Shapovalov and Sonego. 

He was impressive against Shapovalov last time out, absorbing the Canadian’s pace and redirecting it superbly.  Yet to reach a clay-court final in his career, de Minaur is slowly starting to look more impressive on the sticky stuff.  He is one of the best movers on tour and is starting to take a bit more initiative in rallies (he isn’t just sitting back and counterpunching). 

Lorenzo Musetti produced a stunning display in his round of 32 clash, beating clay-court specialist Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets to improve to seven wins in his last eight matches.  Musetti was exemplary from the back of the court, using all his guile and nuance to hit 22 winners to 20 unforced errors.  Musetti broke through with a few stunning results in 2024, reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon and securing the bronze medal at the Olympic Games.  He started this season in disappointing fashion, struggling with a variety of injuries (from calf to thigh).  But he has looked back to his best on clay, reaching a maiden Masters 1000 final at the Monte-Carlo Masters (where a reoccurrence of his thigh issue helped Alcaraz cruise to a 6-0 win in the decisive set). 

Musetti pulled out of Barcelona and has looked unperturbed in Madrid, picking up back-to-back straight-sets wins over Etcheverry and Tsitsipas.  Musetti is a throwback to a different age, using an array of slices and off-speed shots to complement his aggressive baseline play. 

The Verdict: De Minaur to win in straight sets at 1.65- Musetti leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning their last two successive matches.  He pipped de Minaur in a stunning Monte-Carlo semifinal, coming from a set down to outlast the indefatigable Aussie.  I think that the Aussie has a chance of getting some revenge this week.  These courts are significantly quicker than Monte-Carlo and De Minaur should be able to counterpunch effectively.  Also, Musetti does still have some lingering injury issues. 

Grigor Dimitrov 0.44 vs Gabriel Diallo 1.75

15^th seed Grigor Dimitrov will take on lucky loser Gabriel Diallo in the 4^th round of the Madrid Masters.  Grigor Dimitrov looks like a man on a mission this fortnight.  The Bulgarian has enjoyed a wonderful career renaissance this past 18 months or so.  He started this year in solid fashion, reaching the semifinals in his Brisbane title defence.  Injury curtailed his Aussie Open charge, and he struggled to recover during the Middle East Swing.  But he slowly stared to rediscover his best tennis in the Masters 1000 events, following a round of 16 run at Indian Wells with an impressive semifinal showing in Miami. 

He seemed to have found his clay-court rhythm nicely in Monte-Carlo, surging into the quarterfinals.  His Monte-Carlo experience ended in some embarrassment, as the Bulgarian was handed a dreaded double-bagel by ‘Speed Demon’ Alex de Minaur.  Dimitrov has bounced back admirably this fortnight, winning both of his Madrid clashes in straight sets.  He had his struggles against Brit Jacob Fearnley (the match was interrupted by a day due to the Madrid blackouts).  But the 2024 French Open quarterfinalist got the job done and has received quite a favourable draw here.  

Lanky Canadian Gabriel Diallo is experiencing a fairytale fortnight thus far.  The big-serving Canadian has enjoyed a non-descript campaign, failing to reach a single quarterfinal coming into this event.  He also only got into the tournament via the lucky loser spot.  But he has defied expectations, beating the trio of Bergs, Majchrzak and Norrie.  He showed remarkable composure against Norrie, coming back from a set down to secure his maiden Masters 1000 4^th round appearance. 

He served well against the Brit, firing eight aces and just one double-fault.  Diallo will need to step up his level considerably in the final 16 (he is currently 1-6 in meetings against players ranked inside the top 20 in the world). 

The Verdict: Dimitrov to win in three at 2.6– This will be their first career meeting.  Diallo is essentially free-rolling here and that could allow him to play with a certain degree of freedom.  Dimitrov may still have a bit of scar-tissue after that disappointing defeat to de Minaur in Monte-Carlo.  For all those reasons, I think that the Canadian could pinch a set off the Bulgarian.  I just think that Dimitrov’s greater natural variety will see him through in three.  He has lovely variety in that backhand slice and that could prove the difference maker.