The Madrid Open continues this week as Andrey Rublev faces Gael Monfils while Alex Zverev goes up against Roberto Bautista Agut in the competition’s round of 64. Damien Kayat previews.
Andrey Rublev 42/100 | Gael Monfils 18/10
Defending Madrid Masters champ Andrey Rublev could do with some inspiration this fortnight. The former World No.5 has been disappointing this season, bringing an 11-9 record into his Madrid title defence.
He has been particularly flat in recent weeks, going 2-5 since claiming the Qatar title. His form hasn’t picked up much since the tour turned to clay (he went down in straight sets to Fils in Monte Carlo before suffering a similar fate against Davidovich Fokina in Barcelona).
Rublev is an excellent clay-court practitioner, reaching nine finals on the sticky stuff throughout his career (including two Masters 1000 victories).
These relatively quick Madrid surfaces are ideal for Rublev, as they offer just enough bite for him to maximise his huge groundstrokes (while also allowing him a bit of time to set up that forehand). Next up for Rublev is the man he recently disposed of in Monte-Carlo: Gael Monfils.
Evergreen Frenchman Gael Monfils created some history in his first-round win over Croatian qualifier Borna Gojo, coming from a set down to become the oldest match winner in Madrid Masters history (yet another testament to his incredible durability).
Monfils regrouped after being blown away by Gojo in the first set (the Croat served at 94% in the opener). Monfils adopted a more aggressive posture for the remainder of the match, cruising home 1-6, 6-2, 6-4. Monfils has enjoyed a solid late-career campaign, winning in Auckland and going 5-2 during the ‘Sunshine Double’.
He has benefited from simplifying his game in recent times, adopting a more aggressive approach on both serve and return (avoiding the amount of protracted rallies that once defined his game). Monfils doesn’t have the greatest recent record in Madrid, failing to go beyond the 3rd round since 2010.
The Verdict: Rublev to win in straight sets 21/20
Rublev leads the head-to-head 3-1, winning their last three consecutive meetings (including that straight-sets win at this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters).
Monfils – who was once so nimble on clay – probably prefers the quicker surfaces these days. I expect Rublev to come into his own in Madrid, dictating proceedings with that lovely forehand.
He has dominated this recent head-to-head rivalry and has been one of the most consistent clay-court operators in the world for some time.
Alex Zverev 1/7 | Roberto Bautista Agut 46/10
World No.2 Alex Zverev will be looking to build on his heroics in Munich last week. The big-hitting German started the season in heartbreaking fashion, going down to Jannik Sinner in the Aussie Open final.
He lost his way somewhat after that, with quarterfinal runs in Rio and Buenos Aires his best showings leading into the European clay-court swing.
But he corrected his course in impressive fashion last week, easing past Ben Shelton 6-2, 6-4 in the Munich final to collect his 9th career clay-court title. Zverev has really emerged as a formidable clay-court presence these past few years, controversially going down in five sets to Alcaraz in last year’s Roland Garros final.
Zverev has also thrived in this event in the past, winning the title in 2018 and 2021. The slightly quicker clay surfaces lend his serve and groundstrokes some decent purchase.
37-year-old Spanish stalwart Roberto Bautista Agut is well into the twilight of his career. The durable Spaniard isn’t your prototypical European clay-court specialist.
In fact, 18 of his 23 career finals have come on hardcourts (he won on the Antwerp indoor surfaces last year). He has won two clay-court titles in his career, winning his most recent clay-court crown at the 2022 Austrian Open.
However, Bautista Agut is struggling for form this year, improving to 4-10 with his arduous first-round triumph over Jaume Munar. Bautista Agut has won three matches on clay this year but will need a minor miracle to be competitive against the German (though Zverev may still be feeling the effects of his title-winning run in Munich).
Bautista Agut does have some history in this event, reaching the semifinals back in 2014.
The Verdict: Zverev to win in straight sets 46/100
Zverev leads the head-to-head 5-2, winning their last five successive meetings. This should be a procession for Zverev.
He will be hugely motivated in the upcoming months, as he looks to close the gap on World No.1 Jannik Sinner (who returns from his controversial ban just in time for the French Open).
