The Monte-Carlo Masters continues this week as Jack Draper faces Davidovich Fokina while Lorenzo Musetti goes up against Matteo Berrettini in the competition’s round of 16 stage. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 ATP Tour – ATP 1000
Monte-Carlo Masters
Monte Carlo Country Club
Selected RO16 – 10 April
Jack Draper 42/100 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 37/20
5th seed Jack Draper was in cruise control in his Monte-Carlo opener, smashing Marcos Giron 6-1, 6-1. Draper dominated on serve, winning 81% of his first-serve points.
He hit 21 winners to 17 unforced errors in a performance that augers well going forward. Draper has enjoyed a sensational start to the year, improving to 14-3 after that Giron thrashing.
Draper reached the final in Qatar before capturing the biggest title of his young career, beating the likes of Alcaraz and Fritz en route to the Indian Wells title. He failed to repeat that success in Miami, falling to eventual champ Jakub Mensik in his opening match.
The big-serving lefty has not been able to crack the clay-court code as of yet (he is yet to reach a clay-court final and has underwhelmed in previous Masters events).
Draper has endured nightmarish injury issues, and clay taxes the body more than any other surface. Still, the US Open semifinalist continues to defy expectations and he could be on the cusp of a clay-court breakthrough.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has been in sneaky good form this year, reaching two finals to end a three-year drought where he never reached a championship match. He reached the 4th round of the Aussie Open and finished as runner-up at both the Delray Beach Classic and the Mexican Open.
He came back from a set down against Ben Shelton in his Monte-Carlo opener, and he was in complete control in his round of 32 clash, taking down the hard-hitting Tomas Etcheverry in straight sets.
He was incredible from the back of the court, hitting 29 winners to just 15 unforced errors. The Spainard appears to have found some rhythm this season (he dropped out of the top 50 last year after a fairly disastrous campaign).
Fokina loves these slow surfaces, reaching the quarterfinals in 2021 before finishing as runner-up in 2022. However, he was eliminated in the first round in each of the last two seasons. The aggressive Spaniard has the type of chaotic style that is prone to form fluctuations.
The Verdict: Davidovich Fokina to win in three sets 52/10
This will be their first career meeting. I think that Davidovich Fokina’s superior clay-court ability should see him through in a tight battle. Draper is still figuring out his clay-court game, and Davidovich Fokina looked in elite form against Etcheverry.
Davidovich Fokina will test Draper’s physical limits with his liberal use of the drop-shot.
Lorenzo Musetti 1/1 | Matteo Berrettini 78/100
Lorenzo Musetti has been scrapping for his life in Monte-Carlo, coming back from a set down in both of his matches. He really dug deep against Jiri Lehecka, using all his creative nous to subdue the powerful Czech. Musetti hasn’t been at his best this year, yet to reach a semifinal as we start the European clay-court swing.
He had calf issues earlier this year (which effectively ended his South American clay-court season). He returned to action at the ‘Sunshine Double’ but failed to make any real impact. These surfaces should provide him with a safe space to regain his confidence.
A quarterfinalist here in 2023, Musetti has won a clay-court title and won an Olympic Bronze at Roland Garros last year. He is a crafty player who utilizes a wide variety of slices.
Italian Matteo Berrettini delighted the crowds in his round of 32 clash, fighting from a set down to take down top seed Alex Zverev. It was a messy victory, with both players committing a host of errors.
Still, the result will have gone a long way to exorcising some of Berrettini’s Monte-Carlo demons. Two years ago, he was forced to retire due to an abdominal injury, leaving him bedridden and in agony.
Berrettini started the season poorly, going 1-3 in his first three events. But he has looked more like his normal self since reaching the quarterfinals in Qatar, reaching the quarterfinal stage in three of his last four events.
He was particularly impressive in Miami, taking out De Minaur before pushing Taylor Fritz to three sets in the quarters. The former French Open quarterfinalist has a decent clay-court pedigree, reaching six finals and winning four titles.
However, Berrettini has never shone in this event, with the sluggish conditions doing very little for his power-based game. He prefers slightly quicker clay conditions, having reached the Madrid Open final in the past. But his confidence will be soaring after that upset win over Zverev, and he could be a cheeky dark horse this week.
The Verdict: Musetti to win in straight sets 23/10
These two Italians share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece, with Berrettini winning their most recent meeting at last year’s Stuttgart Open.
Berrettini will look to overpower Musetti, probably using his forehand to zone in on Musetti’s single-handed backhand. Musetti will look to mix things up while imparting heavy topspin off that forehand wing. I just think that these surfaces suit Musetti’s cagey approach better.
