Olympic Tennis – Men: selected round of 64 matches

2020 Summer Olympics
Men’s Olympic Tennis
Ariake Tennis Park, Tokyo, Japan (Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 25th July

Kei Nishikori 21/10 | Andrey Rublev 7/20

Given the media circus surrounding Naomi Osaka’s exploits, it’s easy to forget that there’s another Japanese superstar in contention this week: Kei Nishikori. Nishikori has endured a mountain of issues over the past few years. Injury woes and loss of form was followed by a positive Covid diagnosis. The 2014 US Open runner-up has enjoyed some solid showings this year: he reached the 4th round at Roland Garros and the quarterfinals in Dubai. But he has struggled to sustain his form. Furthermore, this is a man with 39 recorded wins over top 10 players. He hasn’t claimed a top ten scalp since 2018. But I think this week will suit him down to the bone. Kei Nishikori is a hardcourt specialist and defending Olympic bronze medallist. But he has also enjoyed great success at this very venue, twice winning the Japan Open at Ariake Tennis Park. Nishikori will be eager to prove his doubters wrong with a solid performance on home turf.

Andrey Rublev has been the demented Energizer Bunny of men’s tennis for the last 18 months. There was always going to be a slight dip in his form at some stage. Rublev became the king of ATP 500 tennis, ritually beating any player that was expected to beat. But unlike the likes Tsitsipas or Zverev, he hasn’t been able to convert that form into success on the biggest stages. He started this season well enough, reaching the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open before claiming the Rotterdam title. He would also beat Rafa Nadal en route to a Monte Carlo Masters final. But things have stagnated since then. He suffered a shock first-round exit at Roland Garros before a tepid 4th round run at Wimbledon. The number of events seem to have caught up with the talented Russian. He also seems to lack a Plan-B when he can’t obliterate an opponent from the back of the court. He will have secretly been hoping for a much less tricky first-round opponent than Kei Nishikori.

Verdict: Nishikori to win at 21/10

Nishikori won their only previous encounter at the 2018 Cincinnati Masters. As I noted earlier, Rublev can become slightly one-dimensional against resilient baseliners. Nishikori certainly falls into that category. He will be motivated to succeed in what will likely be his final Olympics. Furthermore, Nishikori’s record on this surface speaks for itself. Nishikori is an excellent underdog pick in this match.

Andy Murray 21/10 | Felix Auger-Aliassime 36/100

Andy Murray is an Olympic icon. The two-time defending champion possesses a career win-loss record of 12-1 at the Olympic Games. He also has a silver medal in the mixed doubles. The three-set format should help Murray given his precarious physical state. The courts are also reportedly on the slow side, which should allow him to flex his defensive skills to the limit. Murray has obviously endured a difficult year, currently sitting on a win-loss record of 4-4. He is yet to beat a player ranked inside the top 20 and he was routinely dismantled by Shapovalov at Wimbledon. But he could hardly have picked a more dangerous first-round opponent than Felix Auger-Aliassime. Will he be able to draw on that vast well of Olympic experience to overcome the brilliant young Canadian?

Felix Auger-Aliassime’s grass-court season helped rejuvenate a flagging campaign. He beat Federer in Halle before a run to the Stuttgart final (where he managed to unbelievably lose his 8th consecutive ATP Final without winning a set). But his quarterfinal run at Wimbledon will have really helped instil some confidence. It seems as if his partnership with Toni Nadal is starting to reap some rewards. The 20-year-old now possesses a 24-14 record this year. He has largely disappointed on the hardcourts this year (though he did reach the final of the Murray River Open). But his serve has looked far more solid since he started working with Nadal and I think this will translate into better hardcourt success.

Verdict: Auger-Aliassime in straight sets at 96/100

The Canadian won their only previous encounter in straight sets at last year’s US Open. I think that Murray will always have a puncher’s chance in these three-set events. He has Olympic pedigree and he is well suited to this surface. But I just feel that Auger-Aliassime is on the brink of realizing his full potential. Murray looked so defeated against Shapovalov at SW19. Auger-Aliassime won’t mind the conditions and I think he could take this in straight sets at 96/100.