Damien Kayat previews the Nitto ATP Finals Green Group matches between Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev as well as Casper Rudd and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
2021 ATP Tour
Nitto ATP Finals
Pala Alpitour, Turin, Italy
Green Group- 2nd Round Robin Matches- 17th November
Novak Djokovic 2/9 | Andrey Rublev 32/10
Novak Djokovic began his quest for a 6th Nitto ATP Finals title in emphatic fashion, easing past newbie Casper Rudd in straight sets. Okay, perhaps emphatic isn’t the right word. He actually had to recover from a break down in the first set. But despite that early setback, the result never looked in doubt. Djokovic broke early in the 2nd set and calmly dismantled the Norwegian from that point on. He won 83% of his first-serve points and accumulated a healthy 23 winners. Now 34 years of age, Djokovic is attempting to become the oldest ATP Finals champion (Federer currently holds that record, winning the 2011 edition at the age of 30). Djokovic will also be looking to equal Federer’s record of six ATP Finals titles. Djokovic even had the chance to do some political brinkmanship, delighting the Turin crowd by speaking Italian during his post-match interview.
Andrey Rublev needed a statement win to open proceedings this week. He was overwhelmed in his maiden ATP Finals last year, losing his first two matches before a depressing consolation win. He also entered this year’s finals in pretty dreadful form, losing five of his last seven matches. But he absolutely blasted 2019 champion Stefanos Tsitsipas off the court, not facing a break point in the entire match. It was a masterclass in serving, as the Russian won a remarkable 90% of his first-serve points. Rublev should thrive on these Turin courts. Rublev loves slick indoor arenas (four of his eight ATP titles have come in similar conditions). Regardless of what happens in this event, he will look back at 2021 as a failure. Can you believe that Rublev is still yet to progress past the quarterfinal stage of a Grand Slam? He needs to identify why it is that he can’t maintain his level of performance over two weeks.
Verdict: Djokovic to win in straight sets at 67/100
I couldn’t actually believe this. This will actually be the first time that these two will have met. How? They have both been consistent presences in top-flight tennis for the last few years. I know there will be many that will be quite reactive towards Rublev after that Tsitsipas performance. But can Rublev possibly serve that well again? I think that Djokovic will be highly motivated to ensure semi-final qualification as soon as possible. I don’t think he will relish a do-or-die final round-robin match against Tsitsipas this week.
Casper Rudd 31/20 | Stefanos Tsitsipas 5/10
22-year-old Casper Rudd shouldn’t hang his head in shame after his maiden ATP Finals defeat to Novak Djokovic. He initially startled the Serbian with the depth of his hitting. But ultimately, he succumbed to the relentless consistency of Djokovic. Rudd has managed to successfully evolve as a hardcourt player, shattering the myth that he is purely a clay-court operator. But admittedly, all of his titles have come in more fringe ATP events. He hasn’t gone past the quarterfinal stage of any of the Masters 1000 hardcourt events. By contrast, he is a three-time clay-court semi-finalist at Masters 1000 level. Two of those semi-final appearances came this year (at Monte-Carlo and Madrid). Can Rudd up his game to the level where he can dethrone these top 10 players on this surface? I think that still may be an issue for the Norwegian. He lost comfortably to Sinner and Zverev in Vienna and Paris respectively. I think he still needs to broaden his repertoire before he can compete against the elite hardcourt players.
Tsitsipas’ defeat to Rublev wasn’t altogether surprising. The Russian does tend to play his best tennis on hard surfaces. That result actually took Tsitsipas’ career indoor hardcourt record to 6-5. The Greek likes to get involved in protracted rallies and will take some time to get accustomed to these slick conditions. The Greek star is currently in the middle of a late-season dip in form. Since back-to-back semi-finals in Canada and Cincinnati, he hasn’t progressed beyond the quarterfinal in four events. That included a shock 3rd round defeat to Garfia at the US Open. The French Open finalist did enter this event under a slight injury cloud: he was forced to withdraw in Paris due to a painful arm injury. I think that the Greek will secretly be looking forward to the end of the season and the chance to recharge his batteries.
Verdict: Rudd to win in three sets at 44/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils 1-1, exchanging clay-court victories this year. I think Rudd has what it takes to pull off the upset victory in this battle of two clay-court aficionados. Firstly, there are lingering concerns surrounding Tsitsipas’ arm injury. But I also think that there will be different levels of motivation here. The Greek star is a Grand Slam finalist who has won this event before. Being knocked out at this stage isn’t going to devastate him (he will return). But there’s a very realistic chance that Rudd may not get this chance again. And he showed enough life in that first set against Djokovic to suggest that an upset could be on the cards. And it offers outstanding value to boot.
