Damien Kayat previews the Nitto ATP Finals Green Group matches between Novak Djokovic and Cameron Norrie as well as Andrey Rublev and Casper Rudd.
2021 ATP Tour
Nitto ATP Finals
Papa Alpitour, Turin, Italy
Green Group- 3rd Round Robin – 19th November
Novak Djokovic and Cameron Norrie
Novak Djokovic has sailed through the group stages with consummate ease, looking every bit a prospective six-time ATP Finals champion. Andrey Rublev had banana peel written all over it. But after losing his first service game the Serbian clicked into overdrive, dispatching of the Russian in 68 minutes. I think the magnitude of Djokovic’s achievements tend to get lost sometimes. The guy was one match away from winning the calendar Slam this year. But for some reason, tennis enthusiasts tend to mythologize Federer and Nadal in a different way. Sure, he has made a few bone-headed decisions over the past year. But the stats don’t lie. Djokovic is on the precipice of becoming the undisputed greatest player of all time. Why is the tennis community reticent to embrace his brilliance? In any event, it will be interesting to see how Djokovic approaches this match. I have the feeling that the Serb won’t be handing out any freebies in Turin this week.
I almost feel a bit sorry for Cameron Norrie. As the second alternate, I think Norrie was just expecting a scenic Italian getaway this week. But the dual exits of Matteo Berrettini and Stefanos Tsitsipas opened the door for a fairy-tale end to his remarkable year (he has reached six finals this year, winning the huge Indian Wells crown). And he initially seemed up to the challenge against Casper Rudd, dominating the Norwegian in the opening set with his depth of return. But Rudd fought back admirably to take the match in three sets, eliminating Norrie from the competition before we had registered his presence. Now he has to partake in what is essentially a glorified exhibition match. And not just any exhibition match. He has to take on the greatest hardcourt player of all time in Novak Djokovic. He was really on a hiding to nothing this week.
Verdict: Djokovic to win in three- Something tells me that Norrie may be able to filch a set off Djokovic in this match. Firstly, they have never met each other. Norrie’s lefty style does take a bit of getting used to. But Djokovic could use this as an opportunity to tinker with his game. This may lead to uncharacteristic errors.
Andrey Rublev vs Casper Rudd
This has been set up beautifully, with results conspiring to make this a winner-take-all battle for the final qualification spot (Djokovic will finish top of the group regardless of what happens in these matches). Andrey Rublev seemed slightly starstruck in his first-ever match against Djokovic- I still can’t believe they had never met previously. He stated in the post-match interview that he was perhaps overthinking and planning too many shots ahead. I think that’s a very fair bit of self-appraisal. But let’s not forget the intensity that he showed in his opening match against Tsitsipas. Rublev is an ideal fit for these quick indoor conditions and will go into this match as a significant favourite. He just has to implement the same simplistic gameplan he adopted against Tsitsipas. Big first-serves and huge forehands are the order of the day here.
Casper Rudd must have secretly been delighted with the Tsitsipas withdrawal. Though I think he could have upset the Greek, he would have certainly been the underdog in that match. Cameron Norrie is an entirely different proposition. Rudd absolutely annihilated Norrie in the San Diego final earlier this year. Having said that, it must have been a bit jarring to go from preparing for Tsitsipas to the left-handed Norrie. And it wasn’t anywhere near as easy as San Diego this time. In fact, Norrie rolled over Rudd in the first set. All those doubts must have started to creep in. Am I just a clay-court imposter? But Rudd bounced back impressively to take the match in three sets. He amassed an impressive ten aces and 32 winners over the course of the match. Rudd will have gained huge confidence from his maiden ATP Finals victory.
Verdict: Rublev to win in straight sets AT 6/5- This is just the perfect match-up for the Russian. He currently leads Rudd 4-0 in their head-to-head matches. In fact, Rudd has only ever taken one set off the Russian. This is going to be a straightforward affair for Rublev. Rudd is simply not going to be able to sustain enough rallies on this quick surface.
