Damien Kayat previews the Nitto ATP Finals Red Group matches between Jannik Sinner and Danil Medvedev as well as Alex Zverev and Hubert Hurkacz.
2021 ATP Tour
Nitto ATP Finals
Papa Alpitour, Turin, Italy
Red Group- 2nd Round Robin – 18th November
Jannik Sinner (11/4) vs Danil Medvedev (2/7)
Jannik Sinner’s demolition of Hubert Hurkacz has certainly thrown a little spanner in the works for the Red Group. Medvedev would be done and dusted in the group had Sinner not created history in his opening match. Sinner became the first alternate since 2011 to win an ATP Finals match. He also became the youngest player to win an ATP Finals match on debut since 2000. It just felt destined to happen. Lest we forget, Jannik Sinner came in as an alternate to replace compatriot Matteo Berrettini. Berrettini was left absolutely distraught after being forced to withdraw from the tournament due to an abdominal injury. It just seems poetic that a fellow Italian would pick up the torch and battle on in front of the fervent home support. The victory for Sinner was the 46th of a year that has seen him capture four titles. But perhaps his most significant result never ended with silverware. I’m of course talking about his maiden Masters 1000 final at Miami (where he ironically lost to the vanquished Hubert Hurkacz). Sinner has the raw ability to pull off something sensational this week.
Sinner’s victory has certainly complicated Medvedev’s life to some extent. He now may need a result here after two hard-fought three-set victories. The defending ATP Finals champion needed to draw on all his hardcourt nous to survive the resurgent Zverev. He actually needed three match points to get the job done. But you have to admire the determination of the Russian. He has now flipped his rivalry with Zverev, finally taking a razor-thin 6-5 head-to-head lead. Medvedev will have hoped that this match could be used as a glorified training session. But Sinner’s demolition of Hurkacz has introduced a level of uncertainty to proceedings. Medvedev will have to assume that Zverev will overcome the slightly out-of-his-depth Hurkacz. Sinner will enjoy riotous home support and this could prove a very tricky tie for the Russian.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in three- Medvedev holds a 2-0 head-to-head advantage over Sinner (both of those wins have come on indoor hardcourts). I think that Sinner will probably get a 15% performance boost from the crowd alone. But ultimately, I think Medvedev is just too street-smart to get caught up in that hoopla. Perhaps Sinner might edge on a valiant set. But the lure of the semi-finals should push Medvedev to victory.
Alex Zverev (2/9) vs Hubert Hurkacz (31/10)
There are very few times in tennis that you can lose yet gain as much as Zverev did against Medvedev. He pushed the current US Open champion to the absolute limits, showcasing that he is almost certainly the 3rd best player in the world at present (behind Djokovic and Medvedev). He seemed quite relaxed in the aftermath of the result, knowing that a positive result in this match should ensure qualification to the semi-final. Sinner’s victory over Hurkacz has certainly opened up some tantalizing permutations. But Sinner still has the monumental task of usurping Medvedev this week. Zverev’s epic defeat to Medvedev could also stand in his favour if it gets tight (he beat Berrettini in straight sets but managed to lose in three). The 2018 ATP Finals champion has had to endure some pretty intense off-court scrutiny. But it hasn’t stopped him from enjoying a really solid 2021. He reached two Grand Slam semi-finals and won two Masters titles. More importantly, he silenced any critics of his BMT by capturing the Olympics singles gold medal.
It’s been a real rollercoaster of a year for 24-year-old Polish star Hubert Hurkacz. Coming into 2021 ranked outside the world’s top 30, I don’t think he could have realistically envisaged reaching these finals. But he has stated that winning the Miami Masters title gave him a newfound self-belief. But it hasn’t all been smooth sailing for the Pole. He went into Wimbledon off the back off five consecutive defeats. But then he defied the odds again, reaching his maiden Grand Slam semi-final after beating both Federer and Medvedev on center-court. He looked solid in Paris, securing his finals berth with an excellent semi-final run. But his tournament is practically over after a fairly humiliating defeat to late alternate Jannik Sinner. Hurkacz was just blown off the court by the man that he beat to claim the Miami title.
Verdict: Zverev to win in straight sets at 8/11- These two barely have a head-to-head history. Zverev won their only encounter in 2019, beating the Pole in three tight sets in Madrid. But I just can’t see the Pole bouncing back from that Sinner debacle. Zverev looked excellent against Medvedev and has developed a real cutting edge of late.
