PREVIEW: 2021 WTA Tour Kremlin Cup – Selected Ro32 and Ro16 fixtures

WTA Tour 2021
WTA Premier
Kremlin Cup
Luzhniki Palace of Sports
Selected Round of 32 and Round of 16 Matches- 19th-20th October

19th October- Round of 32 Match

Elena Rybakina 87/100 | Marketa Vondrousova 9/10

This has been a year of slight regression for World Number 16 Elena Rybakina. She actually tied for 2nd on tour for total match victories in 2020. The Kazakh reached a staggering five finals on tour last season. This year she hasn’t reached one. However, she still has managed to compile a few compelling results throughout the year. Most notably, she reached the semi-finals of the Olympic Games. That Bronze Medal match ended in agony, as she threw away a commanding lead against Elina Svitolina. But it certainly showcased her undeniable hardcourt attributes. She also reached her maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal at Roland Garros. She lost in the opening round at Indian Wells last week. However, she recently enjoyed a semi-final run at the Chicago Fall Tennis Classic. She brings a decent 33-22 year-to-date win-loss record this week. Rybakina will look to harness that massive serve and keep points nice and simple this week.

It’s really amazing how much Vondrousova’s recent form overlaps with Rybakina. The 2019 French Open finalist also enjoyed a stellar Olympic Games, ultimately winning the silver medal. She too reached the semi-final of the Chicago Fall Tennis Classic. Where Rybakina withdrew from her semi-final due to injury, Vondrousova never even went to court due to illness. And like Rybakina, she lost in her opening round match at Indian Wells last week. Generally speaking, Vondorusova has enjoyed a really good year on the harder surfaces. Since making the final in Tokyo, she reached the quarterfinals at the Chicago Women’s Open, the semi-finals in Luxembourg and the semi-finals of the Chicago 500. She also reached the semi-finals of the Yarra Valley Classic earlier this year.

Verdict: Vondrousova to win in three at 37/10

This will be the first meeting between these two. This is actually the perfect matchup. Rybakina was first in 2020 in total aces served. Vondrousova led the tour in percentage of return games won. Vondrousova comes into match in really consistent hardcourt form. She beat the likes of Pavlyuchenkova and Collins in Chicago. I think she should be able to absorb Rybakina’s power. Furthermore, her incessant use of the drop shot will frustrate the Kazakh. But I still expect an extremely tight match. Perhaps Rybakina’s recent fitness issues may come into play.

20th October- Round of 16 Match

Aryna Sabalenka 24/100 | Ajla Tomljanovic 29/10

This has actually turned into a pretty sensational season for Aryna Sabalenka (and that’s despite not reaching a final since May). She won titles in Abu Dhabi and Madrid whilst also reaching a final in Stuttgart. But she has also reached three extremely high-profile semi-finals in her last five events. She reached the semi-finals of the Canadian Open. But far more crucially, she reached back-to-back Grand Slam semi-finals at Wimbledon and the US Open. She finally defied those critics who questioned her ability to string together a cohesive Grand Slam run. But she was forced to withdraw from last week’s Indian Wells event after she tested positive for the Coronavirus. This will be her first competitive match since that US Open semi-final defeat.

28-year-old Aussie Ajla Tomljanovic has had a weird season. She has only reached one quarterfinal during the entire campaign. However, that just so happened to come at Wimbledon. She has actually been starting to show a semblance of her best form in the last few weeks. She reached the 4th round of Indian Wells for the first time in her career last week. In the process, she beat the likes of Garbine Muguruza and Tamara Zidansk. She also beat Petra Martic en route to a 3rd round finish at the US Open. There have certainly been some signs of encouragement for the Croatian-Australian. But she does have the reputation of being a bit of an unforced errors machine when things go awry.

Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets at 64/10

This will be the 5th career meeting between Sabalenka and Tomljanovic. Sabalenka has a pretty impressive 3-1 lead. That includes a straight-sets victory in Abu Dhabi earlier this year. However, the Aussie did edge the Belarusian during the 2019 Miami Masters. I expect this to be a tight straight-sets win for Sabalenka. She may need a few games to really get into rhythm following her Covid-enforced absence.