Damien Kayat previews selected ATP Tour Quarter-Finals Bavarian International Tennis Championships matches.
29 April 2022
Miomir Kecmanovic (7) (1/3) vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (4) (5/2)
Surely, it’s time for Kecmanovic to break his quarter-final streak. This will be his 6th consecutive quarter-final this year. The 22-year-old Serb has played some outstanding tennis this season, picking up two top ten victories against Matteo Berrettini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Crucially, he had some big-stage success with back-to-back quarter-finals at Indian Wells and Miami. But it was his Miami Open quarter-final defeat to red-hot sensation Carlos Alcaraz Garfia that sticks in the memory.
For me, it was the match of the season. Medvedev’s defeat to Nadal in Melbourne was tarnished by the Russian’s meltdown. But the Kecmanovic-Alcaraz match was simply sensational. I’m convinced that no other player on tour would have beaten Kecmanovic that day. Now it’s time for him to break this strange hoodoo of near-brilliance. He has looked exceptional this week, barely breaking a sweat against either Renberg or Altmaier. He’s going to need to elevate his game to beat defending champ Nikoloz Basilashvili.
Nikoloz Basilashvili is the absolute polar opposite of Kecmanovic form-wise. He enters this match with an abysmal 5-13 2022 win-loss record. But in amongst the chaos, the mercurial Georgian registered a final appearance at the Qatar Open. He is quite simply one of the most impossible players to figure. The five-time ATP Tour victor has won thee of his ATP titles on clay. This included an ATP 500 victory at the 2019 Hamburg Open. He is also the defending champion in Munich this week. So, he clearly has the capacity to deliver this week. But just which Basilashvili is going to rock up this week? He can switch from a Bonafede contender to an apparent also-ran within a manner of minutes. Last year’s Indian Wells finalist will need to keep his concentration throughout against the relentless baseline bludgeoning of Kecmanovic.
The Verdict: Kecmanovic to win in three sets at 3/1- This will be the first career meeting between these two. Both of these guys like to hug the baseline. Basilashvili has tried to curb his naturally aggressive instincts over the last few years. He used to have a see-ball, hit-ball approach. But he has learned to vary his game much more successfully over the past few years. But he is out of form at present and may look to hit his way into form. This is where Kecmanovic should thrive. He is the epitome of consistency from the baseline, hitting brutal groundstrokes off both wings. I think he will wear the Georgian down.
Holger Rune (4/7) vs Emil Ruusuvuori (11/8)
I think it’s fair to say that no one saw that coming. Alex Zverev has endured a frustrating year by his standards. But the Olympic Gold Medallist seemed to have turned the corner with a creditable run to the Monte-Carlo semi-finals.
But the two-time Munich champion was absolutely waylaid by 18-year-old Dane Holger Rune. There has never been much doubt that Rune possesses talent. Rune won the 2019 French Open boy’s singles title.
He has demonstrated a penchant for clay, reaching nine finals at lower-tier clay-court events. But nobody could have envisaged just how easily he would waltz past the beleaguered Alex Zverev. He needed just 99 minutes to ease past Zverev in straight sets.
It was a significant victory for Holger in that it was the first time he has registered back-to-back victories this calendar year. Rune has been ultra-aggressive this week and seems to be quite the complete package for his age. He may need to improve the power on his serve in order to make the next step. But he should be bursting with confidence after that remarkable upset win.
23-year-old Finn Emil Ruusuvuori has slowly inched his way up the world rankings over the past two seasons, reaching a career-high 63 leading into this week. This was courtesy of a Round of 16 showing in Barcelona. The Finn has looked compact this week, beating both the gritty Nishioka and eccentric Cressey in straight sets.
His victory over Cressey took his win-loss record for the year to a commendable 16-9. This has been a breakthrough season for the Finn (he reached his maiden ATP Final at the Maharashtra Open). Ruusuvuori’s game is based around a massive serve and clinical forehand. He will look to keep things simple and ignore Rune’s headline-grabbing victory against Zverev.
The Verdict: Ruusuvuori to win in straight sets at 14/5- This will be yet another first-time meeting. I think that it’s going to be tough for the Dane to reproduce that Zverev performance. Furthermore, Zverev was absolutely abysmal in that game and really would have lost to anyone. I think that the Finn is growing much more street-smart and should overpower the teenager with that big serve.
