The Indian Wells Open continues this week as Daria Kasatkina faces Sofia Kenin as Emma Navarro goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the competition’s round of 64. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Selected RO64 – 8 March
Daria Kasatkina 89/100 | Sofia Kenin 88/100
12th seed Daria Kasatkina will be hoping for a boost as she returns to the scene of one of her most impactful weeks on tour (she finished runner-up here back in 2018). The Russian was a beacon of consistency last year, reaching six finals (on all three surfaces).
She won titles in Eastbourne and Ningbo but generally failed to translate her good form into meaningful results in the elite events (Grand Slams and WTA 1000’s). She has flirted with some strong showings this year, reaching the quarters in Adelaide before a highly creditable 4th round run at the Aussie Open.
But she looked leggy in the Middle East Swing, going 2-3 over those three events. She looked particularly poor in Dubai, blasted off the court by Sorana Cirstea in their first-round clash. She probably didn’t love the news that organizers were aiming to speed things up with a new surface this year.
Kasatkina is a crafty player who thrives in slower conditions, creating heavy topspin on her forehand wing while employing plenty of slice. However, early indications suggest that most players aren’t detecting a real change in pace.
It’s nice to see Sofia Kenin looking confident once again. She has really struggled with injury and loss of form in recent seasons. The 2020 Aussie Open champ Sofia Kenin kicked off her Indian Wells campaign in fine style, ruthlessly dismantling Aussie Maddison Inglis 6-2, 6-1.
She looked back to her best in blustery conditions, winning 83% of her first-serve points and utterly dominating off that forehand wing (she even threw in a few trademark drop-shots for good measure).
The American reached the quarterfinal stage or better in four of her previous eight tournaments leading into this week (including a runner-up finish in last year’s Pan Pacific Open). She looked reinvigorated during the latest Middle East Swing, going 5-2 in Qatar and Dubai (where she picked up victories against the likes of Paolini and Kostyuk).
Kenin has a poor record in this event but will be buoyed by her emphatic showing against Inglis. A former French Open finalist, Kenin has the game to handle gritty, blustery conditions.
The Verdict: Kenin to win in straight sets 37/10
Kenin leads a tight head-to-head 3-2, winning their most recent meeting in straight sets at last year’s Pan Pacific Open. I was really impressed with the way Kenin conducted herself in her first-round match.
She served well and hit the ball crisply off both wings. Kasatkina has been in so-so form this year and I think Kenin’s aggression could see her through in straight sets.
Emma Navarro 39/100 | Sorana Cirstea 39/20
Billionaire heiress Emma Navarro warmed up for this year’s Indian Wells with a resounding triumph at the Merida Open Akron. She was virtually untouchable in Mexico, not dropping a set all week (which included a dreaded double bagel against Arango in the final).
Navarro went into the week as the top seed and ultimately prevailed to win her maiden WTA 500 title (albeit in a somewhat weak field). Navarro will have welcomed the confidence boost after a disappointing Middle East Swing.
To be fair, Navarro can handle a few poor tournaments. The American was voted the most improved player on the WTA Tour in 2024, claiming her maiden title in Hobart and reaching her maiden Grand Slam semifinal at Flushing Meadows.
In fact, her quarterfinal run at this year’s Aussie Open made it three consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances for the American.
Navarro is a superior athlete who uses exceptional footwork to get into great positions, switching fluidly between front-foot and counterattacking tennis. She reached the quarterfinals here last year and will be aiming even higher this time around.
34-year-old Romanian Sorana Cirstea got her Indian Wells campaign off to a winning start, withstanding a late comeback from Aussie Maya Joint to triumph 6-2, 7-5.
It was a cagey performance with breaks aplenty. Still, Cirstea will be pleased as she looks to reestablish herself after injury ruined her 2024 campaign. She was in poor form last year (a semifinal run at the WTA 1000 event in Dubai notwithstanding).
But her season came to a premature end due to foot surgery, forcing her to miss the last 3rd of the season (including the US Open). She looked tentative in her first few outings this year but has looked more assured of late, reaching back-to-back quarterfinals in Dubai and Austin (more on that Dubai result later).
An aggressive hardcourt player. Cirstea reached the quarterfinals here back in 2023 (the same year in which she reached the semifinals in Miami). Cirstea is an accomplished journeywoman who will punish Navarro if she isn’t at her best (as I will explain right now).
The Verdict: Navarro to win in three 31/10
Cirstea leads the head-to-head 1-0, seeing off the American in three sets at the recent Dubai Duty Free Championships. Cirstea’s aggression just wore down the American on quick Dubai surfaces.
These surfaces should theoretically suit Navarro more. She can dig in and counterpunch the assertive Cirstea. Still, Cirstea is a dangerous player, and I can see this going to three.
