Damien Kayat previews the ATP Tour Stockholm Open semi-finals between Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul as well as Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
2021 ATP Tour
ATP 250 Series
Stockholm Open
Kungliga tennishallen, Stockholm, Sweden (Indoor Hardcourts)
Semi-finals Preview- 12th November
Frances Tiafoe (63/100) vs Tommy Paul (12/10)
I have been mightily impressed with the late-season form of Frances Tiafoe. On many occasions, I have lamented Tiafoe’s lack of progress after such an encouraging start to his career. And 2021 looked set to be yet another disappointing campaign for the American (especially following a dreadful clay-court swing). But a decent grass-court campaign fed into a much-improved second half of the season. A quarterfinal run at Winston-Salem was followed by an extremely encouraging 4th round run at the US Open. This included an epic five-set victory over 5th seed Andrey Rublev. I think that performance must have helped instill some confidence in Tiafoe. And that added confidence came to fruition during his brilliant Vienna Open run. He beat a stacked cast before losing to Alex Zverev in the final. That included victories over Tsitsipas, Schwartzman and Jannik Sinner. He has been solid this week, dropping his first set against Dan Evans yesterday. But the manner in which he fought back from a set down has me convinced that Tiafoe is a different beast now.
I knew that Tommy Paul would give Andy Murray a good match yesterday. But I never thought he would have the power to conquer Murray from the back of the court. He brought Murray’s season to an end in agonizing fashion. One wonders if he could be Murray’s last competitive opponent. In any event, Paul has now extended his recent record to 10-4. His victory over Andrey Rublev at Indian Wells was clearly a harbinger of things to come. And now back-to-back victories over Taylor Fritz and Andy Murray have further elevated his growing status in the game. This will be his 2nd semi-final of the year after Parma (his victory over Murray took his 2021 win-loss record to an even 23-23). This should be a pulsating encounter between two talented American players coming into form at exactly the same time.
Verdict: Tiafoe to win at 63/100- Tiafoe leads the head-to-head with Paul 1-0, conquering his compatriot in straight sets at last year’s Delray Beach event. This one is almost impossible to call (and I haven’t had a great week thus far). But ultimately, I feel like Tiafoe has taken down too many big names recently to ignore. I can’t quite decide how he will do it, but he should do it.
Denis Shapovalov (62/100) vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (5/4)
Phew, that was a close one. Denis Shapovalov needed to work every sinew to see off French surprise package Arthur Rinderknech. Thank goodness for that, because it has helped set up this absolutely mouth-watering all-Canadian clash. The fact that they are practically best friends gives it a Shakespearean depth. Shapovalov is one of the most talented players on tour. The defending Stockholm Open champion has endured an extremely erratic year. Like his semi-final opponent and compatriot, Shapovalov made a huge Grand Slam breakthrough this year. He reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon and looked primed for a brilliant North American hardcourt swing. But it just didn’t quite materialize. Opponents know that the way to defeat Shapovalov is to let him beat himself. Keep the rallies going and the Canadian will eventually make a silly unforced error. He needs to cut those out if he really aspires to remain in the upper reaches of the game.
It gets slightly tiring rehashing the same old Auger-Aliassime arguments. There are always going to be questions about his BMT until he can finally capture that maiden ATP title. He has reached eight finals without capturing a title. Two of those finals came this year (in Melbourne and Stuttgart). But where the Canadian has shone has been Grand Slam tennis. His Grand Slam record in 2021 was 12-4 (and that includes a first-round exit at the French Open). He reached his maiden Grand Slam semi-final at Flushing Meadows, putting him on the cusp of qualification for the Nitto ATP Finals. His new relationship with Toni Nadal has certainly paid dividends. But he once again faltered at the critical step, accumulating some poor results when he was primed for possible ATP Finals qualification. I think that victory this week could be monumental for Aliassime and may prove the catalyst for a huge 2022.
Verdict: Auger Aliassime to win in straight sets at 6/4- Auger Aliassime leads the head-to-head 3-2. In fact, you have to go back to the 2019 US Open to locate a Shapovalov victory. I think that Aliassime knows exactly how to play the erratic Shapovalov. Just keep the groundstrokes consistent and frustrate the lefty. He will hugely motivated to finally win that maiden title and I can see him easily dispatching the inconsistent Shapovalov.
