Damien Kayat previews the San Diego Open quarter-finals featuring Andrey Rublev vs Diego Schwartzman and Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalov.
2021 ATP Tour 2021
ATP 250 Series
San Diego Open
Barnes Tennis Centre, San Diego, California
Selected Quarterfinals- 1st October
Andrey Rublev 3/10 | Diego Schwartzman 49/20
Andrey Rublev is a man with a point to prove this week. The Russian hasn’t won a title since the Rotterdam Open in March. Not that his season has been in freefall or anything: he has reached three ATP Finals since that victory. It just feels like a veritable lifetime for a guy who has come to dominate the non-Major part of the tour. But his 3rd round exit at the US Open was yet another disappointing Grand Slam for the talented Russian. But it just feels like he put slightly too much pressure on himself on the bigger stages. I think that last week’s Laver Cup was exactly what the uber-serious Andrey Rublev needed. He was allowed to play in a slightly looser manner, arguably earning MVP status as he won all three of his matches (singles and doubles). Rublev wasted little time in disposing of Brandon Nakashima in their opening match. Rublev will next come up against Laver Cup opponent Diego Schwartzman.
It isn’t exactly a mystery that Argentine Diego Schwartzman is a clay-court specialist. He reached the Italian Open final last year to register his first ATP Masters final appearance. He also reached the semi-finals of last year’s French Open. That form helped propel him to the ATP Finals for the first time. But I think that he may struggle to reach those heights again. He just doesn’t quite have the weapons to consistently compete with the elite players on these surfaces. He has only reached one semi-final this year (he won the fairly undistinguished Argentina Open earlier this year). He has already had to come through an arduous three-set match against the heavy-hitting Llyod Harris. To be fair, he showed a lot of grit to see off the big-serving South African. But it will be tough for the Argentine to replicate that form against the metronomic Rublev.
Rublev in straight sets at 83/100
These two are actually level in the head-to-head stakes at 1-1. Schwartzman won in five sets on his beloved clay in 2017. But Rublev evened things up with his comeback victory at last week’s Laver Cup. I just think that Rublev’s performance against Nakashima is a portent of things to come this week. He simply has too much firepower and consistency from the back of the court. Rublev to win in straight sets at 83/100.
Cameron Norrie | Denis Shapovalov *betting tba
Cameron Norrie came through the much-vaunted all-British clash against Dan Evans with relative ease. Honestly, I couldn’t believe that Evans was seeded 8th ahead of Norrie this week. Sure, Evans won the Murray River Classic at the beginning of the year. But since then, it has been crickets for Evans. In that time Norrie has reached four ATP finals on three surfaces. The lefty won his debut ATP title at the Los Cabos Open. Seriously, Norrie has been a bastion of consistency throughout the year. But he has faced some late-season difficulties. In fact, he entered this week’s event off the back of four consecutive losses. I personally think that he has been feeling the brunt of a gruelling (and successful) campaign. But he appears to have found his bearings after two straight-set victories this week.
It has been a weird season for Denis Shapovalov. His straight-sets victory over Taylor Fritz took his season win-loss record to 25-19. So, he’s hardly been pulling down trees this year. But in amongst the mediocrity he reached his maiden Grand Slam semi-final run at Wimbledon. Semi-final runs in Dubai and Queens also showed his abilities on quicker surfaces. He also reached his first-ever ATP clay-court final in Geneva. It’s been a crazy, unpredictable campaign for the Canadian. In many ways, it really is an extension of his ‘go for broke’ style. But things have been tough in the aftermath of that brilliant Wimbledon run. His victory over Taylor Fritz was just his 3rd victory in his last eight matches. That included a fairly humiliating defeat to Danil Medvedev at the Laver Cup. Medvedev is the type of player who can get mired in these troughs of form.
Verdict: Shapovalov in straight sets
Norrie won their only encounter earlier this year at Queens. It’s funny, you would have thought that Shapovalov would have prevailed on the brisk grass at Queens. But Norrie is a canny competitor who knows how prone Shapovalov can be to overcooking his groundstrokes. However, I have the feeling that Shapovalov is in his groove now and he could pull off a straight-sets victory.
